Future of Mining - key trends - keynote by Patrick Dixon for Rio Tinto

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Future of Mining Industry, commodities, steel, iron ore, precious metals. Futurist keynote speaker Patrick Dixon for Rio Tinto.

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Future of Mining - key trends - keynote by Patrick Dixon for Rio Tinto

  1. 1. • Body Level One • Body Level Two • Body Level Three • Body Level Four • Body Level Five          Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd 
 Take  Hold  of  the  Future
  2. 2. do things you really believe in Life  is  Short    
  3. 3. • Body Level One • Body Level Two • Body Level Three • Body Level Four • Body Level Five Who  cares  about     the  new  strategy?  
  4. 4. • Body Level One • Body Level Two • Body Level Three • Body Level Four • Body Level Five All  leadership   comes  from  VISION   of  a  be?er  future  
  5. 5. ! One word will dominate ALL FUTURE !
  6. 6. The future is about EMOTION
  7. 7. Title Text
  8. 8. ! Strategies often overtaken by events ! World can change faster than you can hold a board meeting
  9. 9. WGP  1980-­‐2013  (%,constant  prices)  
  10. 10. US  GDP  1980-­‐2013     (%,constant  prices)  
  11. 11. EU  GDP  1980-­‐2013     (%,constant  prices)  
  12. 12. Vietnam  GDP  1985-­‐2011  
  13. 13. >40%  WDP  in  Asia  by  2015 —IMF  -­‐  adjusted  for  Purchasing  Power  Parity   —50%  populaVon  in  India  under  25  years  old
  14. 14. $3.4  trillion     !
  15. 15. Buy  mines  and  mining  rights
  16. 16. $2.4  trillion     ! Reserves  
  17. 17.                
  18. 18. Growth of Middle Class in Africa 250m people - $2 trillion by 2040 !
  19. 19. 300 million move to cities in China (66% of all seabourne trade in iron ore) 475 million to cities in Africa by 2030 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
  20. 20. ! Europe Dying ! 4 couples to produce single great-grand child !
  21. 21. Title Text • Body Level One – Body Level Two • Body Level Three – Body Level Four » Body Level Five
  22. 22. !
  23. 23. Most  STEM  graduates  in  emerging  markets  
  24. 24. China  and  India  dominate   STEM  degrees     including  post-­‐graduate  /  PhDs
  25. 25. Title Text • Body Level One – Body Level Two • Body Level Three – Body Level Four » Body Level Five
  26. 26. •Pigs  teeth  grown  inside  rats   •Mice  grow  new  teeth  from  nerve  cells  /  gum Grow New Teeth
  27. 27. 49 • After 20 years - 80% alive v 50% on normal calories • Less cancer, diabetes, heart disease, strokes, brain decay Monkeys on diet live longer
  28. 28. Slow or no ageing is a reality in animals Japan women gain 15 minutes of life expectancy every hour • Rockfish, Turtles, some Whales ! • No signs of getting old
  29. 29. 1  trillion  pages  a  month   !
  30. 30. People love Cities and Offices
  31. 31. TeleworkingOnly 2.5% of US workers are exclusively home-based 60% UK office workers have opportunity to work from home regularly - but few take it (during office hours)
  32. 32. Diversity  in   workplace  leads  to   diversity  in   marketplace  
  33. 33. 85%  of  leaders  of  largest  US  corporaVons   say  diversity  is  key  to  innovaVon Forbes  study
  34. 34.  How  many  militants    to  shut  down                                                                            oil  producVon?
  35. 35. Tribal Gas / Energy
  36. 36. ! Scale - Innovation Speed ! Eat  or  be  Eaten
  37. 37. How  commodity  wealth  can  strangle  economies UN study: exchange rate rises so other business uncompetitive, military spending rises, corruption rises, instability rises
  38. 38. Nearshoring  Boom  
  39. 39.  11%  wage  inflaVon  in  China  in  2013  and  2014  
  40. 40. e-­‐commerce  hits  $1.5  trillion  2014   12%  all  UK  retail
  41. 41. MOBILEMobile influenced $29bn of retail sales in UK in 2013 50% of all UK online sales are using mobile
  42. 42. Internet of Things
  43. 43. 90% all global data generated in last 2 years ! Sales of canned food in Mexico store = demand for more steel tins in China Big Data
  44. 44. Future  of  Household   Appliances  and   RoboVcs  ?
  45. 45. Rio Tinto driverless trucks - 130 million tons of material 2.3m kms, >57 trips around the equator.
  46. 46. $40 Trillion Green Tech Boom driven by oil price, cost cuts, green activism
  47. 47. ! ! “EU  emissions  of  CO2   equivalent  to  a  carpet  of     CO2  =  28cmsthick  each  year   over  enVre  land  mass”   ! !
  48. 48. Shale gas 33% US supplies 3.3m US jobs $468bn pa + more oil produced than Saudi by 2020 ! 200 years global supply Up from 60 years in 5 years
  49. 49. 5  coal  plants  replace  with  gas  =  9000  megawa>s  wind ! 57  closed  in  US  in  2012-­‐14 Cheaper  coal  means  more  coal  will  be  burnt  in  Asia  
  50. 50. 120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day
 7,000 times total power use
  51. 51. Solar cell generation parity
  52. 52. 120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day
 7,000 times total global power use Power Moscow from Libyan Desert Why China will dominate wind power industry “40% EU power = wind by 2050” Surplus wind to hydrogen - to methane ?
  53. 53. ! •10% capacity used 4 days a year in Australia •Average $50 à peak $10,000 per MWhr Managing  Peak  Power    
  54. 54. Germany  Power  Surplus ! • In  June  2013  electricity  prices  became  negaVve  -­‐EU150  /  MWhr
  55. 55. •Future for next-generation Super-Grids
  56. 56. Nuclear  energy  -­‐  expect  global  growth…. —Challenge to achieve carbon reductionAND cut nuclear —Wild card = dirty terror bomb or another meltdown —Mining uranium in future from sea water using today’s technology
  57. 57. —30 million acres lost ! —EU 5% gasoline and diesel from food 25% of 2010 US grain ! fuel
 !84 40% US corn burnt in vehicles Using 100% US corn would only drive 25% of vehicle miles
  58. 58. !85 Biofuel impact on food prices
  59. 59. do things you really believe in Life  is  Short    
  60. 60. image can be “dirty, dangerous, destructive, corrupt” commodity extraction creates many ethical challenges Ethical  Mining    
  61. 61. Social  Contract  
  62. 62. Teams  in  top  half  of  Engagement   86% more likely to have better customer metrics 70% more likely to have low staff turnover 70% more likely to be highly productive 44% more likely to be profitable • Gallup meta-survey > 10 million people
  63. 63. Lesson  from  Non-­‐Profits  and  AcVvists   ! Connect  with  all  the  passions  people   have  and  they  will  follow  you  to  the   ends  of  the  earth,  promote  what  you  do   with  pride,  and  may  even  be  willing  to   work  for  you  for  next  to  nothing   ! ….  and  the  four  word  phrase  is  ….  
  64. 64. ! ! Building  a  Be?er  World The  Magic  of  every  great  Business
  65. 65. • Body Level One • Body Level Two • Body Level Three • Body Level Four • Body Level Five          Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd 
 globalchange.com   15  million  visitors   5  million  video  views

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