Future of energy industry & greentech - Conference keynote speaker

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http://www.globalchange.com Future trends relating to energy prices and oil price per barrel. Impact on global economic growth of rising oil prices. Balance between oil production and oil consumption. Peak oil and proven global oil reserves -- why they are rising. Oil from coal -- future trends in coal industry. Petroleum based products and petrochemical industry -- growing demand for all kinds of commodities including steel, copper, oil, coal, gas, all part of the growth of emerging economies such as China, India, Indonesia, Brazil, Malaysia, South Korea, Singapore and so on. Impact on utility companies. Deep sea drilling, oilfields, engineering and environmental challenges including global warming / climate change. Impact of rising fuel costs on transport and transportation industry, aviation, rail travel, shipping, vehicle sales, car use, heating and air conditioning systems, building design and manufacturing. OPEC production quotas and their impact on global economic growth. Instability and revolution, impact of popular protests across Middle East oil producing nations. Government policy changes in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, Saudi Arabia. Link between oil wealth and local unemployment. Inequalities of wealth and wealth distribution in future by governments keen to maintain political power. Impact of alternative energy production on oil consumption. Predictions for future energy costs.

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Future of energy industry & greentech - Conference keynote speaker

  1. 1. in a rapidly changing and uncertain world Dr Patrick DixonChairman Global Change Ltd for Vattenfall
  2. 2. Patrick Dixon is Chairman of Global Change Ltd, Author of 15 books and has been ranked one of the 20 most influential business thinkers alive today (Thinkers 50) Future of energy industry & greentech for Vattenfall (2008) 500 videos of keynotes www.youtube.com/user/pjvdixon Over 4 million views Dixon’s Futurist Website www.globalchange.com/ 14 million unique visitors.
  3. 3. F astU rbanT ribalU niversalR adicalE thical
  4. 4. Some things are changing faster thanFast energy companies can hold a meeting
  5. 5. Fast Energy Wild Cards Low probability, high impact events How many, what types, prepared?
  6. 6. Future Oil Price – China / India impact
  7. 7. Oil price adjusted for inflation $ Peaked at $84 in real terms in late 1970s$100 Oil price of $100 is manageable today
  8. 8. The Future is about emotion - and energy is an emotional issue
  9. 9. Don’t believe market research Energy users often wrong about the future
  10. 10. Fast A news story can destroy your energy brand in a week TRUST at RISK Hard to sustain Easy to lose
  11. 11. Needs to communicate the truth about carbon reserves• Oil reserves could last more than 150 years with higher price and change in use• Coal could last more than 250 years at current price and rate of mining• Global warming could be greater limit on future carbon use than fall in supply
  12. 12. Massive jump in world population ASWELL as jump in energy use per person Move from water and horse power to electric and petrol / diesel
  13. 13. Sustainability
  14. 14. Conflicts over Water • Managing long rivers across nations
  15. 15. Uganda cuts Nile water flow by 33% to let Lake Victoria fill up - 2006 • Egypt claims 82% of Nile • 1929 treaty
  16. 16. Global Population  > 9 billion
  17. 17. 1 billion children will soon beenergy hungry adults
  18. 18. Urban Emerging Mega-markets  2/3rds of the world  Up to 50% city slum  Pressures for energy  Air quality
  19. 19. Hydrogen cars improve city air but still usually need carbon-use electricity
  20. 20. AIDS out of Control• 1% of all adults alive today• 50% of adults have HIV in some places in Africa• India, China, Cambodia, Vietnam, Russia, Ukraine…
  21. 21. EuropeDying 4 couples needed toproduce just one great- grandchild
  22. 22. Tax incentives for babies• Expect more government efforts to encourage child-rearing
  23. 23. 75% of all UK and US wealth owned by those over 65
  24. 24. 1 millionpeople over90 years old in Italy by 2026
  25. 25. Urban Can we stop ageing ? Adjustment needed to life-expectancy tables
  26. 26. Urban Heart repair already a reality • Injection of bone marrow stem cells after bypass operation • Improves heart function up to 85% after coronaries
  27. 27. Live to 150 years old?• Mice are living to a human equivalent of 150 years old using non-toxic, low cost therapy
  28. 28. Tribal Tribalism conflictsPalestinian landIraq civil unrestKosovo / BosniaNorthern IrelandChechnyaRwanda / BurundiBlack / White
  29. 29. Global instability could result from unsustainable contrastsbetween rich and poor nations
  30. 30. European Union will be dominated byconflict: local identity / regional power• Tribalism – we are all different• Universalism – we are all one Rapid EU enlargement will make integration very hard to manage
  31. 31. Tribalism in Energy Supply • Russia pressure on Ukraine gas flow • Concerns in France about energy company ownership • Energy becomes issue of national security
  32. 32. Africa – 30% of world’s growth in oil use will be provided• Already supplies 12% of world’s oil• Libya has 22%• Nigeria• Angola• Algeria• Egypt
  33. 33. Africa has 50 million tons of liquid naturalgas capacity – almost 30% of world total
  34. 34. How many people would it take tostop all oil production in Nigeria?
  35. 35. High performance companies build stronger tribes People will always need to belong Sense of identity Family New people movements
  36. 36. Every great brand builds a tribe
  37. 37. What’s the point of chasing newconsumers if you keep losing the old ones ?
  38. 38. Tribal The fastest way to be forgotten is to BUY ! EDRM Research
  39. 39. He wants a humanbeing – not a robot!
  40. 40. Radio Frequency Identity Devices• Gillette 500 million RFIDs last year
  41. 41. Human nerve cells growing on an integrated circuit
  42. 42. Heathrow Spaceport Takes Off
  43. 43. Global village has become a lawless city – no police or city government Globalisation 4-6 billion people live in global city Spam / e-mail fraud? Bird flu ? Global Law Gap Global warming ? International Governance / UN 2000
  44. 44. CO2 at highest level for 1 million years
  45. 45. Even if all carbon emissions stop, sealevels could keep rising for 1000 yrs
  46. 46. Expect carbon tax on flying
  47. 47. Carbon offset – expect EU15 - 30 a ton – huge new industry• Carbon neutral cars, buildings, events, products, services
  48. 48. Cost of making every flight carbon neutral? $15 – 1 hour flight $50 – 9 hour flight
  49. 49. Virtual Planes – Viral Marketing
  50. 50. Radical New Shape of Politics Old Party Politics New Issues World view Narrow agenda Systematic Campaign History New causes Tradition Radical Left / Right Sometimes irrational
  51. 51. Radical Every major single issue will lead to new regulation  Energy conservation  Water pollution  Oil rig safety  Child labour  Poor financial advice  Corporate governance
  52. 52. Reputation and business success will depend on abilityto defend past actions as energy companies, in a future world where all the rules have changed - Insider dealing was smart and now is criminal –- Paying bribes to get job done was smart and now is criminal -
  53. 53. Keep close to single issue concerns Ford concept that escaped online
  54. 54. Global Warming - facts
  55. 55. Radical Ultimate climate catastrophe • Greenland ice and part of Antarctic melts • See levels rise by 10 to 15 metres over a few hundred years
  56. 56. Million year old carbon needs to be put back where it came from after being burnt into CO2
  57. 57. Radical Stabilise CO2 – cost 1% GWP• Stabilising CO2 at 450ppm will cost 1% of gross world product• Continuing without change could cost 10% of GWP• In 1990 emerging nations produced 39% of world CO2• By 2010 it will be 55%
  58. 58. Wind Power• Expect windmills to be more popular• Smaller, less noisy, everywhere
  59. 59. Wave / Tide Power• Expect huge schemes eg Bristol estuary
  60. 60. Solar cell – expect huge cost falls• Every roof of every new and renewed home?• Silicon chip technology will fall in cost as volume rises
  61. 61. Geothermal homes – 75% energy saved• Heat pump• Heat in winter• Cooling in summer• Expect government grants / carbon trades
  62. 62. Nuclear energy• Expect rapid growth of new reactors• Wild card will be dirty terror bomb or a meltdown
  63. 63. The Truth about Uranium Reserves• Cost only 2-3% of nuclear power• Huge room for uranium price inflation• Millions of years of supply in low grade ores eg granite
  64. 64. Large atoms splitSmall atoms fuse
  65. 65. Fusion Power from Seawater and Lithium• First reactor 2031• Power plant 2048• US, EU, Japan, China, Russia, S Korea• $5.5bn for prototype in France• New Scientist 12 November 2005
  66. 66. Energy subsidies will distort market – government and corporate / carbon trades • 58% for fossil fuels • 29% for nuclear
  67. 67. Crisis of Purpose at Work• 90% of 30-40 year olds want to leave conventional business jobs• 60% of 25-35 year olds feel unfulfilled in careers• 83% say they are having a “quarter-life crisis”• 90% are looking for a higher purpose at work• 59% say they seen no meaningful purpose in their work or organisation
  68. 68. New Motivation Styles
  69. 69. Who cares about the strategy? Does it really matter?
  70. 70. Change onlyhappens whenpeople believe that the end result is likelyto be worth the effort
  71. 71. Ethical New trend – get a life• Work-life balance first or second most important factor in looking for a job• 10,000 US, Japanese and UK managers Work-life balance is about friends and family
  72. 72. • 60% in US work for nothing – 73% in the UK• Average 200 hours a year• 20 billion hours a year• 4.5% GDP Volunteering is about…. ?????
  73. 73. Ethical Companies talk about • Growth • Profits • Shareholder value ( + customers…)
  74. 74. Ethical Individuals talk about… • Own needs • Family + friends • Community • Wider world
  75. 75. Ethical Individuals talk about… • Own needs • Family + friends • Community • Wider world
  76. 76. Ultimate energy slogan• For individuals – your own needs• For family – people close to you• For community – neighbourhood or nation• For the whole earth – the good of all Win the $20,000 Challenge
  77. 77. Connect with all the passions people have and they will follow you to the ends of the earth, promote yourproducts with pride, and may even be willing to work for you for next to nothing
  78. 78. • www.globalchange.com/ppt4/vattenfall
  79. 79. Patrick Dixon is Chairman of Global Change Ltd, Author of 15 books and has been ranked one of the 20 most influential business thinkers alive today (Thinkers 50) Future of energy industry & greentech for Vattenfall (2008) 500 videos of keynotes www.youtube.com/user/pjvdixon Over 4 million views Dixon’s Futurist Website www.globalchange.com/ 14 million unique visitors.

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