Future of business technology, future pharma and healthcare - Conference keynote speaker

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globalchange.com - Future trends in the pharmaceutical industry. Lack of innovation in pharma companies and empty product pipeline. Generic competition and product recalls. Drug development and novel substances. Large molecule and small molecule therapeutics. Risk profiles and clinical trials. Side effects, gene profile typing and pharmacogenomics. Health care, wellness, enhanced performance and lifestyle drugs. Patent expiry and intellectual property protection. Legal challenges and research scandals. Biogenerics and large molecule therapeutics. Cellular mechanisms of disease. Unmet needs. Government purchasing policies, future of medicare and health insurance cover. Online pharmacy price pressures. Over the counter and pharmacists - pharmacy products. Neutraceuticals and cosmetics. Search for new treatment blockbusters. Chronic disease, childhood disease, vaccines and orphan therapies. Rheumatoid and asthma. Antibiotics and multiple drug resistance problems. Search for powerful antiviral therapy. Future health funding and ageing populations. Contrast with emerging markets. Health economics: treatment access and justice issues. Pharmacogenomics and gene prophecy. Ethical issues in pharmaceuticals. HIV and AIDS. Patrick Dixon, conference keynote speaker and futurist.

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Future of business technology, future pharma and healthcare - Conference keynote speaker

  1. 1. And need for change in an uncertain world Dr Patrick DixonChairman Global Change Ltd for Genentech
  2. 2. Patrick Dixon is Chairman of Global Change Ltd, Author of 15 books and has been ranked one of the 20 most influential business thinkers alive today (Thinkers 50) Future of business technology, future pharma and healthcare for Genentech (2008) 500 videos of keynotes http://www.youtube.com/user/pjvdixon Over 4 million views Dixon’s Futurist Website http://www.globalchange.com/ 14 million unique visitors
  3. 3.  F ast  U rban  T ribal  U niversal  R adical  E thicalIN BUSINESS FOR LIFE - IDEAS FORUMSeeing ahead, revolution, resilience, renewal (G Hamel)
  4. 4. Health care needs to deliver faster• Cash rich, time poor• Web world makes us impatient• Instant fix for health problems
  5. 5. Fast Wild Cards Low probability, high impact events
  6. 6. Behaviour of health care consumers shaped by emotion
  7. 7. Emotional Business• Health scare over contamination of food  massive product recalls• Sub-prime worries  market confidence crisis• What next?
  8. 8. “Yesterday’s drugs were aboutneed: tomorrow’s will be aboutliving faster and staying young”
  9. 9. Sexual Performance
  10. 10. Brain Faster – and better?
  11. 11. FASTWhat kind of leadership do you need to travel twice as fast?
  12. 12. 1 billionchildren inAfrica and Asia
  13. 13. Impact on over-the-counter sales
  14. 14. Europe Dying 4 couples needed toproduce just one great- grandchild
  15. 15. 75% of all US wealth owned by those over 65
  16. 16. 1 millionpeople over90 years old in Italy by 2026
  17. 17. Single Most Dominant Pharma / Health Factor Will Be Ageing • 65% health budget • Rising fast • But almost all major diseases are age-related
  18. 18. Can we stop ageing ?
  19. 19. Worn out Mitochondria – Energy Boostalphalipoic acid and acetyl-carnitine improves energy levels in rats, as well as mental capability
  20. 20. Permanent Hair Colour• Adenovirus• Infected mouse hair cells• Permanent colour change
  21. 21. Treatment which restores andmaintains the youthful elasticity of hardened arteries – and helps wrinkled skin. Global sales?
  22. 22. Grow New Teeth• Pigs teeth grown inside rats• Mice grow new teeth from nerve cells / gum tissue
  23. 23. Urban Successful Heart repair • Inject bone marrow stem cells after bypass • Improves heart function up to 85%
  24. 24. Near-perfect repair ofheart or brain damage following coronary / strokeusing adult stem cells
  25. 25. YourBrain CanRepair Itself Daily
  26. 26. Negligible senescence is a reality• Rockfish, Turtles, some Whales• No signs of getting old
  27. 27. URBAN What kind of governmentand health spending will we have if every election isdecided by those over 75?
  28. 28. Tribal Tribalism conflictsPalestinian landIraq civil unrestKosovo / BosniaNorthern IrelandChechnyaRwanda / BurundiBlack / White
  29. 29. Global instability from growing gap between rich and poor
  30. 30. High performance organisations all build stronger tribes People will always need to belong Teams Sense of identity Genentech family Tribal leaders
  31. 31. TRIBAL How many tribes are thereinside the business – and how does it affect things?
  32. 32. Global consolidation of biotech industry - maturing• Expect hundreds of aquisitions by big pharma• Expect growth to slow down in largest biotech corporations
  33. 33. Need for radical reform of Pharma innovation is slowing.. Next £5 - £100bn a year brands ?• Yet more painkillers for arthritis?• Just another viagra alternative?• Even more anti-ulcer drugs?
  34. 34. Pharma• Big pharma = 65% of Pipelines R+D global budget Are Empty• = GDP of 130 nations• …but only 26% of new approvals• Generics threat
  35. 35. Failure of InnovationPatent Expiry wipes $80bn pa from industry sales 2004-2007
  36. 36. Expect Growing Generic Impact • Patent breaking will increase • Global supply from poorest nations • Public-owned research  direct to generic production • Bio-generics in 5–10 yrs
  37. 37. UNIVERSALHow resilient will you be in an increasingly globalised marketplace?
  38. 38. Resilience• Future not series of linear growths• Future ups and downs• More amplified swings• Winners will have to deal with that• US has to be very resilient – – 911 / Iraq / sub-prime crisis• Next 10 years could see major changes for genentech
  39. 39. Radical New Shape of Politics Old Party Politics New Issues World view Narrow agenda Systematic Campaign History New causes Tradition Radical Left / Right Sometimes irrational
  40. 40. Global Warming - facts
  41. 41. Single Issues  regulation Designer Life Embryo usePatent protectionSynthetic genes
  42. 42. Genes for speech, memory, criminality,depression, obesity and stable relationships
  43. 43. Genetic Prophecy – Are We Ready?
  44. 44. Future Unmet Needs Who pays? Radical Shifts Above line = health budget / government spending Clinical conditionsSeverityPublic Female baldnessHealthPolicy Trend – line is falling IVF Male baldness Memory Performance / life-enhancement Number Affected
  45. 45. Above and Below the Line Future Medical NeedsSeverity Clinical conditions Mainstream Pharma Large numbers affected Major morbidity / mortality Female baldness Trend – line is falling IVF Male baldness Performance / life-enhancement Number Affected
  46. 46. Above and Below the Line Today’s luxury is tomorrow’s health needSeverity Clinical conditions Mainstream Pharma Large numbers affected Major morbidity / mortality Female baldness IVF Male baldness Trend – line is falling Performance / life-enhancement Number Affected
  47. 47. Above and Below Line - Examples• ABOVE: Obesity, diabetes, cancers, cardiovascular, autoimmune, hair loss in women• CLOSE TO (OR ON) THE LINE: Chronic tiredness, repetitive strain injury, autism, stress, infertility, addictions• BELOW: Ageing, memory enhancement, most cosmetic surgery, athletic enhancement, fitness, hair loss in men, appetite suppressants, skin anti-wrinkle, teeth appearance, gum disease, eyesight (glasses), hearing, menopause
  48. 48. RADICALWhat will be the biggestsingle issues influencing your industry?
  49. 49. People with Purpose are Unstoppable
  50. 50. Ethical Passion to “get a life” • 10,000 US, Japanese and UK managers • Work-life balance is now first or second most important factor in looking for a job Work-life balance is about friends and family
  51. 51. • 6 out of 10 Americans work for nothing• Average 200 hours a year• 20 billion hours a year• 4.5% GDP Volunteering is about…. ?????
  52. 52. Ethical Companies talk about • Growth • Profits • Shareholder value
  53. 53. Ethical BUT individuals talk about… • Own needs • Family + friends • Community • Wider world
  54. 54. Combining passions people have,with your own business objectives
  55. 55. Connect with all the passions people have and they will follow you to the ends of the earth, and what is more, they may even be willing to work for you for next to nothing
  56. 56. Patrick Dixon is Chairman of Global Change Ltd, Author of 15 books and has been ranked one of the 20 most influential business thinkers alive today (Thinkers 50) Future of business technology, future pharma and healthcare for Genentech (2008) 500 videos of keynotes http://www.youtube.com/user/pjvdixon Over 4 million views Dixon’s Futurist Website http://www.globalchange.com/ 14 million unique visitors

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