Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

Why Won't My Car Start?

2,152 views

Published on

Slides for the session run at Systems Thinking Sheffied 2 in February 2010.

  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

Why Won't My Car Start?

  1. 1. Systems Thinking Sheffield February 2011Why Won’t My Car Start? Exploring cause-and-effect in systems and organisations Ashley Moran Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 2.0 UK: England & Wales License PatchSpace Ltd
  2. 2. A warm-up exercise
  3. 3. Task: Using “because”Take and index cardWrite a complete sentence that includesthe word “because” It could be a generic statement Maybe something that happened to you recently
  4. 4. Task: Using “because”Form groups of 2 or 3Take each sentence in turn and ask theauthor questions about the reasoningRemember: do ask questions don’t jump to conclusions don’t tell the other person they’re “wrong”
  5. 5. Task: Using “because”What did you learn?Were any of the original statementsless watertight that you thought?
  6. 6. Task: Using “because”(This task was inspired by one I readabout Goldratt doing at the start of ameeting)
  7. 7. Types of logic
  8. 8. Sufficiency vs Necessity Necessity logic IN ORDER TO stay alive WE MUST drink water IF WE DO NOT drink water WE CANNOT stay alive What are the assumptions (the tacit “because”)?
  9. 9. Sufficiency vs Necessity Sufficiency logic IF I drink water now THEN I will not be thirsty for a while IF I am thirsty THEN I cannot have drunk water recently What are the assumptions (the tacit “because”)?
  10. 10. Sufficiency with “ and”
  11. 11. Sufficiency with “ and” Read as:
  12. 12. Sufficiency with “ and” Read as: IF there is a lightbulb in the circuit
  13. 13. Sufficiency with “ and” Read as: IF there is a lightbulb in the circuit AND there is a battery in the circuit
  14. 14. Sufficiency with “ and” Read as: IF there is a lightbulb in the circuit AND there is a battery in the circuit AND the circuit is unbroken
  15. 15. Sufficiency with “ and” Read as: IF there is a lightbulb in the circuit AND there is a battery in the circuit AND the circuit is unbroken THEN the lightbulb is on
  16. 16. Sufficiency with “or”
  17. 17. Sufficiency with “or” Read as:
  18. 18. Sufficiency with “or” Read as: IF I am standing in the rain
  19. 19. Sufficiency with “or” Read as: IF I am standing in the rain AND I have no protection from the elements
  20. 20. Sufficiency with “or” Read as: IF I am standing in the rain AND I have no protection from the elements ... OR I fell in a swimming pool
  21. 21. Sufficiency with “or” Read as: IF I am standing in the rain AND I have no protection from the elements ... OR I fell in a swimming pool THEN I am wet
  22. 22. Expressingreservations about cause-effect logic trees
  23. 23. Expressing reservations People are emotionally attached to things they have worked on People can take criticism of their work as a personal affront It’s very important to tackle cause-and- effect logic problems as “you and me versus the tree” not as a matter of personal opinion
  24. 24. The Prime Directive"Regardless of what we discover, weunderstand and truly believe thateveryone did the best job they could,given what they knew at the time,their skills and abilities, the resourcesavailable, and the situation at hand." Norm Kerth, Project Retrospectives: A Handbook for Team Reviews Often used by “Agile” soft ware teams
  25. 25. Expressing reservations
  26. 26. Expressing reservations Is anything wrong with this statement?
  27. 27. Expressing reservations Is anything wrong with this statement? Reser vation: Clarity
  28. 28. Expressing reservations
  29. 29. Expressing reservations Is anything wrong with this statement?
  30. 30. Expressing reservations Is anything wrong with this statement? Reser vation: Entity Existence
  31. 31. Expressing reservations Is anything wrong with this statement? Reser vation: Entity Existence Incomplete statement
  32. 32. Expressing reservations Is anything wrong with this statement? Reser vation: Entity Existence Incomplete statement Compound statement
  33. 33. Expressing reservations Is anything wrong with this statement? Reser vation: Entity Existence Incomplete statement Compound statement Non-existent fact
  34. 34. Expressing reservations
  35. 35. Expressing reservations Is anything wrong with this statement?
  36. 36. Expressing reservations Is anything wrong with this statement? Reser vation: Causality Existence
  37. 37. Expressing reservations
  38. 38. Expressing reservations Is anything wrong with this statement?
  39. 39. Expressing reservations Is anything wrong with this statement? Reser vation: Cause Insufficiency
  40. 40. Expressing reservations Is anything wrong with this statement? Reser vation: Cause Insufficiency What about day/ night?
  41. 41. Expressing reservations
  42. 42. Expressing reservations Is anything wrong with this statement?
  43. 43. Expressing reservations Is anything wrong with this statement? Reser vation: Additional Cause
  44. 44. Expressing reservations Is anything wrong with this statement? Reser vation: Additional Cause What about the windows?
  45. 45. Expressing reservations
  46. 46. Expressing reservations Is anything wrong with this statement?
  47. 47. Expressing reservations Is anything wrong with this statement? Reser vation: Cause- Effect Reversal
  48. 48. Expressing reservations Is anything wrong with this statement? Reser vation: Cause- Effect Reversal Watch out! These can be very subtle
  49. 49. Expressing reservations
  50. 50. Expressing reservations Is anything wrong with these statements?
  51. 51. Expressing reservations Is anything wrong with these statements? Reser vation: Predicted Effect Existence
  52. 52. Expressing reservations Is anything wrong with these statements? Reser vation: Predicted Effect Existence What else would the proposed causes imply?
  53. 53. Expressing reservations
  54. 54. Expressing reservations Is anything wrong with this statement?
  55. 55. Expressing reservations Is anything wrong with this statement? Reser vation: Tautology
  56. 56. Expressing reservations Is anything wrong with this statement? Reser vation: Tautology How do you know the rock is tiger- repellant?
  57. 57. Expressing reservations Is anything wrong with this statement? Reser vation: Tautology How do you know the rock is tiger- repellant? Dues owed to Lisa Simpson for this one
  58. 58. Categories of reservation Clarity Entity Existence (atomic, valid) Causality Existence (logic doesn’t follow) Cause Insufficiency (something missing) Additional Cause (alternative explanation) Cause-Effect Reversal Predicted Effect Existence Tautology (circular reasoning)
  59. 59. Current Reality Trees
  60. 60. Current Reality TreesPart of the Theory of Constraints (TOC)body of knowledgeTheory of Constraints enabled people tooptimise a system around a processbottleneck (as in the novel The Goal)Production capability increasedEventually the constraint became notproduction, but (management) policiesand assumptions
  61. 61. Current Reality TreesCurrent Reality Trees use cause-effect logic trees to explain the current reality of a system
  62. 62. Current Reality TreesIf you have a goal in mind for thesystem, you can identify UndesirableEffects (UDES) with respect to that goalWe’re glossing over the (moreimportant?) stage of defining the goaland its necessary conditions
  63. 63. An example CRT
  64. 64. An example CRT Note:
  65. 65. An example CRT Note: UDEs are determined relative to a goal
  66. 66. An example CRT Note: UDEs are determined relative to a goal Is low quality actually undesirable? Says who?
  67. 67. An example CRT Note: UDEs are determined relative to a goal Is low quality actually undesirable? Says who? Watch for the feedback loop
  68. 68. An interactive exercise Why are the monkeys hungry?
  69. 69. WarningThis is a trial run of the sessionYou’re the experiment, not the monkeysHide any bananas you may have on yourperson
  70. 70. The situationYou’ve been brought in to manage a roomfull of monkeysYour assume the monkeys want to behappy, and that to be happy they mustbe well fedLet’s look at some facts availableLet’s ask “why?” and “what happensif?” to explore the situation (I know the answers)
  71. 71. Drawing a treeThis slide is a placeholder for the timewe spend drawing a Current RealityTree for the “monkey story”
  72. 72. RetrospectiveWhat did we learn?
  73. 73. Further readingIt’s Not Luck - Eliyahu M GoldrattThe Logical Thinking Process - H WilliamDettmerThinking Processes Including Strategy &Tactics Trees (ebook) - Lisa J ScheinkopfFlying Logic (tree soft ware) - developedby Sciral

×