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There is no way indian markets can go down

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There is no way indian markets can go down

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There is no way indian markets can go down

  1. 1. There is No Way Indian Markets Can Go Down
  2. 2. Contd… We have made a bottom, and the US credit market is the only worry now, according to Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, ace investor and partner, Rare Enterprises. The recent correction in the domestic stock market was largely because it had gone ahead of itself and the mother of all bull markets is ahead for Indian equity investors, he said in an interview with ET Now. Edited excerpts: Are you bullish on the domestic market or bearish? To my mind, we are at a bottom, or we are near a bottom, because expectations are valid. There are not many speculative positions in the market. A lot of the selling has come from FIIs, but it has been absorbed by the local institutions for the first time. There is a lot of flow into Indian mutual funds, which is only going to accelerate. The only joker in the pack could be, I think, the dollar. The dollar has peaked. Short dollar is a very good trade against all currencies and, I personally believe, the increase in US interest rates has already been discounted.
  3. 3. Contd… I think the announcement, which I expect on Wednesday, is going to come with a statement that the next increase is going to be very nominal. But there appears to be some anxiousness in the US credit markets. Believe me, this can be really disastrous. So let us look at that angle very carefully. Apart from that, there is no way the Indian market can go down, it is going to go up. This year we have got hit because of global flows, but shall we break out going forward? I do not look at India along with other emerging markets. I look at India as an independent country.The link will be broken ultimately...because the flow of foreign money into Indian markets will be far less than the flow of local money. This is a synchronisation, because foreign money is very important to a lot of markets.
  4. 4. Contd… Among all emerging markets, India has the best macros and is poised to have the highest growth rate in the world. So, I see no reason why India will not break out of the pack. The pain point clearly has been earnings recovery. Where do you think the market went wrong? Well, there has been good earnings growth in auto, pharma and software.The economy is taking more time to pick up than was normally anticipated.Also, we have had two below-par monsoons. We can look forward to a good monsoon and also two-three things from the government such as the focus on defence, railways, roads and ease of doing business. These will see the actual effect as the actual orders are going to be there. I have one prediction that India will be a big export hub in 10 years.
  5. 5. Contd… Domestic institutions are buying midcaps. Largecaps are not doing anything and the midcaps are where the party is on. Well, I do not see some great midcaps.The largecaps will ultimately give you better percentage returns, may be with less excitement. It is not that domestic investors are not buying largecaps. I think I would be careful in buying some of the smallcaps, because the market is extrapolating one quarter into many years and there is a lot of excitement in the midcaps. Be careful. So do you think somewhere the market is underestimating the problem with private banks? It depends. In certain private banks, such as HDFC Bank and Kotak, they do not have any problem, others I do not know. I am competent to say good or bad, and I do not think HDFC Bank and Kotak will have problems.
  6. 6. Contd… How do you read the trend in the pharma space? A lot of good news and a lot bad news have arrived together. I am very optimistic on my pharma investments, in particular, and the pharma industry in general. India is going to be a very big pharma player because we have a large home market. We are getting the technology. We are getting size. We are very price competitive. Indian companies will spend $64 million on research. As far as my investments are concerned, Lupin and Aurobindo, Lupin has had such a big rise and Aurobindo is doing extremely well.
  7. 7. For details and bookings contact:- Parveen Kumar Chadha… THINK TANK (Founder and C.E.O of Saxbee Consultants & Other-Mother marketingandcommunicationconsultants.com) Email :-saxbeeconsultants@gmail.com Mobile No. +91-9818308353 Address:-First Floor G-20(A), Kirti Nagar, New Delhi India Postal Code-110015

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