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EMBERS Posters

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For more detail about the project, please visit: http://people.cs.vt.edu/parang/embers/ ‎or contact parang at firstname at cs vt edu

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EMBERS Posters

  1. 1. Venezuelan(Spring(‘14( ILI(Forecasts( EMBERS: Forecasting Significant Societal Events using Open Source Indicators Discovery Analytics Center, Virginia Tech Contact: Naren Ramakrishnan, Principal Investigator, naren@cs.vt.edu Introduction System(Architecture(Produc>on(Cluster( ~20+(TB!Total!Archived!Data! ~3(Billion(Messages! ~15(GB!ingested!per!day! Over!12,000!warnings!delivered! Average!40!warnings!/!day! 12!EC2!instances!used!for!produc>on! 16!vCPUs,!50(GB!Virtual!Memory! System(Sta>s>cs( Goal:"Build"system"to"forecast"events" "from"readily"available"public"data" IARPA!OSI!Program! •  Forecast!major!popula>onIlevel!events!of! substan>al!societal!importance! •  Civil!unrest!incidents,!elec>ons,!rare!disease! outbreaks,!influenzaIlike!illnesses! !!!!!!!!–!When,!Where,!Who!and!Why!?! •  Focus!regions!include!20!countries!in!La>n!America! and!7!countries!in!Middle!East!&!North!Africa! Matching(Warnings(and(Events( t1( Forecast! Date! t2( Event! Date! t3( Predicted! Event!Date! t4( Reported! Date! Lead!Time! Date! Quality! Selected Results Planned(Protest(Model( Extracts! event! announcements! from! tradi>onal! ! news! and! social!media! Dynamic(Query(Expansion( Model( Adap>vely! extracts! keywords! related!to!protests! Volume(Based(Model( Machine! learning! model! that! maps!volume!based!features!to! protests! Cascades(Model( Tracks! targeted! campaigns! and! populariza>on! of! causes! on! TwiXer! Baseline(Model( Uses! Maximum! Likelihood! Es>mate!over!past!GSR!reports! to!forecast!protests! Civil Unrest ((((((Fusion(&( Suppression( Influenza-like IllnessesRare Diseases vs.! ""Evaluated"by"MITRE" Tensor(Decomposi>on( Anomaly(Detec>on( Warning( Audit(Trail( GeoSLoca>on(( Filter( Keywords( Filter( Predicate( Filter( PreSProcessing( (((((Seed(( Vocabulary( PSL( Processing( Keywords(for(( Itera>on( Threshold( Filter( Membership( Inference( PostSProcessing( Brazilian(Spring’13( Spread(of(Protests( Rare(Disease(Forecasts( Discovery!Analy>cs!Center! EMBERS!is!led!by!the!Discovery!Analy>cs!Center!at!Virginia!Tech!with!numerous!industrial!and!academic!partners,!including!University!of!Maryland,!College!Park,!Cornell!University,!Children's!Hospital!Boston/Harvard!Medical!School,!! University!of!California!San!Diego,!San!Diego!State!University,!CACI!Inc.,!Basis!Technology,!University!at!Albany,!University!of!California!Santa!Cruz,!Northeastern!University,!Carnegie!Mellon!University,!University!of!Utah,!and!Raytheon/BBN!Technologies.! Supported!by!the!Intelligence!Advanced!Research!Projects!Ac>vity!(IARPA)!via!DoI/NBC!contract!number!D12PC000337,!the!US!Government!is!authorized!to!reproduce!and!distribute!reprints!of!this!work!for!Governmental!purposes!notwithstanding!any!copyright!annota>on!thereon.! Disclaimer:!The!views!and!conclusions!contained!herein!are!those!of!the!authors!and!should!not!be!interpreted!as!necessarily!represen>ng!the!official!policies!or!endorsements,!either!expressed!or!implied,!of!IARPA,!DoI/NBC,!or!the!US!Government.! Elections Collaborators(( 1.  for!classified!research!components! 2.  with!access!to!relevant!data!sources! 3.  with!exper>se!in!modeling!terrorism! and!military!ac>ons! Seeking
  2. 2. Planned'Protest'Model' Extracts( event( announcements( from( tradi2onal((news(and(social(media( Dynamic'Query'Expansion'Model' Iden2fies( a( dynamically( growing( list( of( keywords(related(to(protests( Volume'Based'Model' Machine( learning( model( that( maps( volume(based(features(to(protests( Cascades'Model' Tracks(targeted(campaigns(and( populariza2on(of(causes(on(Twi@er( Baseline'Model' Uses(Maximum(Likelihood(Es2mate(on( past(GSR(reports(to(predict(protests( ‘Beating the News’ with EMBERS: Forecasting Civil Unrest using Open Source Indicators Naren Ramakrishnan, Patrick Butler, Sathappan Muthiah, Nathan Self, Rupinder Khandpur, Parang Saraf, Wei Wang, Jose Cadena, Anil Vullikanti, Gizem Korkmaz, Chris Kuhlman, Achla Marathe, Liang Zhao, Ting Hua, Feng Chen, Chang-Tien Lu, Bert Huang, Aravind Srinivasan, Khoa Trinh, Lise Getoor, Graham Katz, Andy Doyle, Chris Ackermann, Ilya Zavorin, Jim Ford, Kristen Summers, Youssef Fayed, Jaime Arredondo, Dipak Gupta, David Mares Introduction EMBERS Evaluation Fusion'and' Suppression' #(of(Warnings( Date( Vs.( Evaluated)by) MITRE) Brazilian'Spring' Venezuelan'Protests'‘14' System'Architecture'ProducCon'Cluster' ~13'TB(Total(Archived(Data( ~3'Billion'Messages( ~15'GB(ingested(per(day( Over(12,000(warnings(delivered( Average(40(warnings(/(day( 12(EC2(instances(used(for(produc2on( 16(vCPUs,(50'GB(Virtual(Memory( System'StaCsCcs' Goal:)Build)system)to)forecast)these)events) from)readily)available)public)data) IARPA(OSI(Program( •  Forecast( major( popula2onTlevel( events( of( substan2al(societal(importance( •  Civil(Unrest( −  When,(Where,(Who(and(Why(?( •  Regional(focus(on(10(countries(in(La2n( (((((America(:T(AR,(BR,(CL,(CO,(EC,(MX,(PY(( (((((SV,(UY,(and(VE( Warning)Audit)Trail) Warning'PredicCon' t1' Forecast( Date( t2' Event( Date( t3' Predicted( Event(Date( t4' Reported( Date( Lead(Time( Date( Quality(
  3. 3. Brazilian Spring ‘13 Venezuelan Protests ‘14 Mexico Protests ‘14 Warning'Id' Loca-on' Date' Delivered' Model' Keywords' 5356$ Fortaleza$ June$27th$$ June$26th$$ Dynamic$Query$ Expansion$ Reform,$Polit,$Plebiscit,$ Dilm,$ConsCtuent$ 5247$ Rio$de$Janeiro$ June$30th$$ June$24th$$ Planned$Protest$ Comienzan$Protestas$ 5620$ Rio$de$Janeiro$ June$30th$$ June$29th$$ LASSO$ Caminar,$Evaluar,$ Violencia$ 5582$ Salvador$ June$30th$$ June$29th$$ Dynamic$Query$ Expansion$ Protest,$Manifest,$Polic,$ Fortal,$Govern,$Apos$ MITRE'ID' Loca-on' Date' 7912$ Fortaleza$ June$27th$$ $ 7968$ Salvador$ June$30th$$ 7967$ Rio$de$ Janeiro$ June$30th$$ 7966$ Rio$de$ Janeiro$ June$30th$$ Warning'Id' Loca-on' Date' Delivered' Model' Keywords' 12081$ Maracaibo$ Feb$12th$$ Feb$11th$$ Dynamic$Query$ Expansion$ Liberacion,$Exigir,$ Estundiante,$Trabajador$ 11838$ Caracas$ Feb$12th$$ Feb$3rd$$ Planned$Protest$ llamando$protesta$ 12120$ Los$Teques$ Feb$13th$$ Feb$12th$$ Dynamic$Query$ Expansion$ Papel,$Conatel,$Medio,$ #12f,$estudianCl$ 12242$ Caracas$ Feb$18th$$ Feb$17th$$ Planned$Protest$ Call$Rally$ MITRE'ID' Loca-on' Date' 16238$ Maracaibo$ Feb$12th$$ $ 16254$ Los$Teques$ Feb$13th$$ 16353$ Caracas$ Feb$18th$$ $ 16220$ Caracas$ Feb$12th$$ Warning'Id' Loca-on' Date' Delivered' Model' Keywords' 22794$ Ciudad$de$ Mexico$ Nov$5th$$ Nov$4th$$ Dynamic$Query$ Expansion$ Marcha,$#ABRE,$ #Ayotzinapa,$formacion$ 22654$ Ciudad$de$ Mexico$ Nov$5th$$ Oct$31st$$ Planned$Protest$ Marcha,$Annunciar$paro$ 23606$ Veracruz$ Nov$20th$ Nov$17th$$ Planned$Protest$ anunciar$movilizacion$ 23851$ Oaxaca$de$ Juarez$ Nov$20th$$ Nov$19th$$ Dynamic$Query$ Expansion$ #gobiernohidalgo,$ paco_olvera,$Ayotzinapa$ MITRE'ID' Loca-on' Date' 25898$ Ciudad$de$ Mexico$ Nov$5th$ 25900$ Ciudad$de$ Mexico$ Nov$5th$$ 26200$ Veracruz$ Nov$5th$$ 26190$ Oaxaca$de$ Juarez$ Nov$20th$$ EMBERS: Forecasting Significant Societal Events using Open Source Indicators Discovery Analytics Center, Virginia Tech Contact: Naren Ramakrishnan, Principal Investigator, naren@cs.vt.edu Discovery$AnalyCcs$Center$ EMBERS$is$led$by$the$Discovery$AnalyCcs$Center$at$Virginia$Tech$with$numerous$industrial$and$academic$partners,$including$University$of$Maryland,$College$Park,$Cornell$University,$Children's$Hospital$Boston/Harvard$Medical$School,$$ University$of$California$San$Diego,$San$Diego$State$University,$CACI$Inc.,$Basis$Technology,$University$at$Albany,$University$of$California$Santa$Cruz,$Northeastern$University,$Carnegie$Mellon$University,$University$of$Utah,$and$Raytheon/BBN$Technologies.$ Supported$by$the$Intelligence$Advanced$Research$Projects$AcCvity$(IARPA)$via$DoI/NBC$contract$number$D12PC000337,$the$US$Government$is$authorized$to$reproduce$and$distribute$reprints$of$this$work$for$Governmental$purposes$notwithstanding$any$copyright$annotaCon$thereon.$ Disclaimer:$The$views$and$conclusions$contained$herein$are$those$of$the$authors$and$should$not$be$interpreted$as$necessarily$represenCng$the$official$policies$or$endorsements,$either$expressed$or$implied,$of$IARPA,$DoI/NBC,$or$the$US$Government.$ •  In$June'2013$countrywide$protests$erupted$in$Brazil,$also$ known$as$the$Vinegar'Movement' •  Reason:' Increase$ in$ Bus$ Fares,$ CorrupCon,$ Health$ &$ EducaCon$Costs$ •  Major$ protests$ occurred$ in$ the$ host$ ciCes$ of$ the$ FIFA$ ConfederaCons$ Cup$ matches,$ which$ were$ forecast$ by$ EMBERS.$ •  NaConwide$Venezuelan$protests$began$in$February'2014$$ •  Reason:$ Indifference$ to$ student$ concerns,$ high$ levels$ of$ criminal$violence,$inflaCon$and$chronic$scarcity$of$basic$goods$ due$to$strict$price$controls$enforced$by$the$government$ •  Killing$of$Miss$Venezuela$2004$(Monica$Spears)$and$her$exj husband$ followed$ by$ an$ akempted$ rape$ of$ a$ student$ triggered$the$events$ •  During$the$months$of$September'–'November'2014,$Mexico$ experienced$countrywide$protests'$$ •  Reason:$On$September'26th,'43$male$college$students$from$ Ayotzinapa$went$missing$which$led$to$a$naConwide$outcry$$ •  A$mass$grave$of$28$students$was$discovered$on$October'5th$ •  On$ November' 20th,$ relaCves$ of$ missing$ Mexican$ students$ led$mass$protest$in$Mexico$ EMBERS$Warnings$ GSR$ EMBERS$Warnings$ GSR$ EMBERS$Warnings$ GSR$ Word$Cloud$from$EMBERS$Alerts$Word$Cloud$from$EMBERS$Alerts$ $$$$$$$$$GSR$vs.$EMBERS$Counts$ $$$$$$$$$$$GSR$vs.$EMBERS$Counts$ Word$Cloud$from$EMBERS$Alerts$ $$$$$$$$$$GSR$vs.$EMBERS$Counts$ GSR$vs.$EMBERS$SpaCal$DistribuCon$ GSR$vs.$EMBERS$SpaCal$DistribuCon$ GSR$vs.$EMBERS$SpaCal$DistribuCon$ On$June$27th,$in$Fortaleza,$ 5000$protestors$clashed$with$ police$near$the$castelao( stadium.$EMBERS$sends$out$ an$alert$the$day$before$ On$June$30th,$mass$ protests$occurred$ in$Rio$de$Janeiro$&$ Salvador.$EMBERS$ forecast$these$ events$and$sends$ out$mulCple$alerts$ on$June$28th$&$29th$ for$these$ciCes$ 68%$of$the$EMBERS$alerts$ resulted$from$the$ Planned(Protest(model$ indicaCng$that$social$ networking$sites$and$ convenConal$news$media$ played$a$key$role$in$ organizing$these$ uprisings$ On$Feb$11th,$EMBERS$ captured$the$first$“calls( to(protest”$from$several$ open$source$indicators$ for$the$trigger$city$–$San( Cristobal$(with$more$ alerts$generated$for$ nearby$regions$Merida$ &$Maracaibo)$ From$5th$–$8th$October,$ EMBERS$generated$a$series$ of$alert$spikes,$coinciding$ with$the$first$large$scale,$ naConwide$protests$ During$13th$–$29th$ October,$EMBERS$ captures$several$statej wide$protests$ On$November$5th,$EMBERS$ generates$mulCple$alerts$ for$massive$protests$in$ Mexico$City$

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