Dm Ps Analysis


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Dm Ps Analysis

  1. 1. Managerial Decision making & Problem Solving Kamlesh Ghag
  2. 2. This session includes.. <ul><li>Why Decision making is needed? </li></ul><ul><li>Types of Decision making ? </li></ul><ul><li>How to select a model ? </li></ul><ul><li>6 steps is Decision making process. </li></ul><ul><li>Different models in Decision making and in Decision Support System. </li></ul>Kamlesh Ghag
  3. 3. Decision Making.. <ul><li>Needed for any organization to reach its objectives and goals. </li></ul><ul><li>Is the element of Problem solving. </li></ul><ul><li>Requires strategic planning and decision analysis. </li></ul>Kamlesh Ghag
  4. 4. Decision making the process of identifying problems and opportunities, then resolving them. Kamlesh Ghag
  5. 5. Decision - Types Programmed And Non – programmed Kamlesh Ghag
  6. 6. Programmed <ul><li>Made using a rule, procedure or quantitative method </li></ul><ul><li>e.g. fixed sitting arrangement </li></ul><ul><li>Are easy to computerized </li></ul><ul><li>MIS are used to solve Programmed Decision </li></ul>Kamlesh Ghag
  7. 7. Non-programmed <ul><li>Unstructured or ill-structured </li></ul><ul><li>Deal with unusual/exceptional situation </li></ul><ul><li>Difficult to quantify </li></ul><ul><li>Rules, procedures are not so obvious </li></ul><ul><li>Decision Support system are used to solve the Non-programmed Decision. </li></ul><ul><li>e.g. whether to start a new product line </li></ul>Kamlesh Ghag
  8. 8. <ul><li>Programmed decisions : </li></ul><ul><li># situations that occur often enough to enable decision rules to be developed . </li></ul><ul><li>Nonprogrammed decisions : </li></ul><ul><li># are made in response to situations that are unique, are poorly defined and largely unstructured. </li></ul><ul><li># many involve strategic planning. </li></ul>Therefore… Kamlesh Ghag
  9. 9. Selecting a Decision Making Model <ul><li>Depends on the manager’s personal preference. </li></ul><ul><li>Whether the decision is programmed or non-programmed. </li></ul><ul><li>Extent to which the decision is characterized by risk, uncertainty, or ambiguity. </li></ul>Kamlesh Ghag
  10. 10. Six Steps in the Managerial Decision Making Process Kamlesh Ghag
  11. 11. Models of Decision Making Kamlesh Ghag
  12. 12. Hertbert Simon Model <ul><li>Intelligence Phase </li></ul><ul><li>- Information gathered that relates to the cause and scope of problem </li></ul><ul><li>- Potential problems or opportunities are identified and defined </li></ul>Kamlesh Ghag
  13. 13. <ul><li>Design Phase </li></ul><ul><li>- Developing the alternative solution </li></ul><ul><li>- Evaluating the feasibility of the alternatives </li></ul>Kamlesh Ghag
  14. 14. <ul><li>Choice Phase </li></ul><ul><li>- Requires selecting a course of action </li></ul>Kamlesh Ghag
  15. 15. Hertbert Simon Model Kamlesh Ghag Intelligence Design Choice Hertbert Simon Model for Decision Making
  16. 16. George Huber Model for Problem Solving <ul><li>Problem solving includes Decision making and goes beyond that. </li></ul><ul><li>Expansion of Decision Making model </li></ul><ul><li>Includes </li></ul><ul><li>- Implementation and Monitoring Phase </li></ul>Kamlesh Ghag
  17. 17. <ul><li>Implementation Phase </li></ul><ul><li>- when the solution is put into effect </li></ul><ul><li>Monitoring Phase </li></ul><ul><li>- Evaluate the implementation </li></ul><ul><li>- involves feedback and adjustment </li></ul>Kamlesh Ghag
  18. 18. George Huber Model Kamlesh Ghag Intelligence Design Choice Implementation Monitoring George Huber expanded model for Problem solving
  19. 19. Decision Support System <ul><li>An organized collection of people, procedures, software, databases and devices used to support problem-specific decision making. </li></ul>Kamlesh Ghag
  20. 20. DSS – 3 models <ul><li>Optimization Model </li></ul><ul><li>- offers the best solution </li></ul><ul><li>- to help the organization meets its </li></ul><ul><li>goals </li></ul><ul><li>- utilize problem constraint </li></ul><ul><li>- reduce the time and cost to increase </li></ul><ul><li>the profits </li></ul>Kamlesh Ghag
  21. 21. Kamlesh Ghag <ul><li>Satisficing Model </li></ul><ul><li>- When the decision would be difficult, complex, or costly. </li></ul><ul><li>- good alternative modeling method </li></ul><ul><li>( to analyze each alternative is too expensive) </li></ul><ul><li>- looks only at those likely to give good results </li></ul>
  22. 22. Heuristic approach <ul><li>Defined guidelines or Procedures </li></ul><ul><li>Also said as “rules of thumb” </li></ul>Kamlesh Ghag
  23. 23. Questions from your side.. Thank you. Kamlesh Ghag