Continental 2012 - Session 06 - Discontinuities, Peripheral Vision & Uncertainty

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Continental 2012 - Session 06 - Discontinuities, Peripheral Vision & Uncertainty

  1. 1. THE FUTURE IS EMBEDED IN THE PRESENT John Naisbitt, FuturistThursday, May 31, 12
  2. 2. DISCONTINUITY A pattern of trends that has the potential to dramatically change competitive rules or industry structures, opening up substantial new opportunities.Thursday, May 31, 12
  3. 3. CONNECT THE DOT´S People are working longer hours The number of single parent families increasing People are getting married later in life People are spending more time online WHERE IS THE INTERSECTION BETWEEN THESE TRENDS? WHAT IS THE BIGGER STORY THAT EMERGES WHEN YOU PUT THESE TRENDS TOGETHER?Thursday, May 31, 12
  4. 4. INCREASING SOCIAL ISOLATIONThursday, May 31, 12
  5. 5. HOW COULD/WILL THIS AFFECT YOUR INDUSTRY?Thursday, May 31, 12
  6. 6. IMAGINING THE FUTURE TODAY ...IS NOT EASYThursday, May 31, 12
  7. 7. THINK BIGThursday, May 31, 12
  8. 8. LET´s THINK ABOUT THE TRENDS IN THE AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRYThursday, May 31, 12
  9. 9. Bill Ford · Global GridlockThursday, May 31, 12
  10. 10. Forget about grand corporate visions of the future.Thursday, May 31, 12
  11. 11. Focus on identifying changes in the external environment that competitors have under-estimated orignored.Thursday, May 31, 12
  12. 12. Then try to understand how the momentum of thesechanges can be influenced or amplified to shape the future.Thursday, May 31, 12
  13. 13. EVERYONE HAS ACCESS TO THE SAME INFORMATION ABOUT WHAT IS CHANGING THE WORLD.Thursday, May 31, 12
  14. 14. HOW CAN YOU CONSTRUCT PROPIETARY INSIGHTS OUT OF PUBLICLY AVAILABLE DATA?Thursday, May 31, 12
  15. 15. LOOK WHERE YOUR COMPETITORS ARE NOT?Thursday, May 31, 12
  16. 16. LOOK WHERE YOUR COMPETITORS ARE NOT? What is the bleeding edge? Where could we go to get some firsthand experience of ... technological change, lifestyle changes, socio-demographic changes, etc.? Where could we go to get inspiring bursts of insight that trigger innovative new ideas?Thursday, May 31, 12
  17. 17. Jan Chipchase · Understanding ConsumersThursday, May 31, 12
  18. 18. AMPLIFY WEAK SIGNALS TO ANTICIPATE THEIR SECOND AND THIRD ORDER CONSEQUENCES.Thursday, May 31, 12
  19. 19. AMPLIFY WEAK SIGNALS TO ANTICIPATE THEIR SECOND AND THIRD ORDER CONSEQUENCES.Thursday, May 31, 12
  20. 20. Thursday, May 31, 12
  21. 21. Chris Anderson · Technology ForecastingThursday, May 31, 12
  22. 22. TRY TO UNDERSTAND TRENDS IN THEIR HISTORICAL CONTEXT.Thursday, May 31, 12
  23. 23. TRY TO UNDERSTAND TRENDS IN THEIR HISTORICAL CONTEXT. EXAMINE THE PAST What have been our past blind spots? Is there an instructive analogy from another industry? Who in your industry has a good track record in picking up week signals?Thursday, May 31, 12
  24. 24. TRY TO UNDERSTAND TRENDS IN THEIR HISTORICAL CONTEXT. EXAMINE THE PRESENT What important signals are you rationalizing away? (detect · fast forward with scenario planning) What are your mavericks and outliers trying to tell you? What are peripheral customers and competitors really thinking? (existing · potential · non-consumers) aasdfThursday, May 31, 12
  25. 25. TRY TO UNDERSTAND TRENDS IN THEIR HISTORICAL CONTEXT. ENVISION THE FUTURE What future surprises could really hurt (or help) us? What emerging technologies could change the game? Is there an unthinkable scenario?Thursday, May 31, 12
  26. 26. LOOK FOR INTERSECTIONS BETWEEN TRENDS.Thursday, May 31, 12
  27. 27. Flying CarsThursday, May 31, 12
  28. 28. TRY TO UNDERSTAND TRENDS IN THEIR HISTORICAL CONTEXT.Thursday, May 31, 12
  29. 29. Thursday, May 31, 12
  30. 30. Thursday, May 31, 12
  31. 31. RESIDUAL UNCERTAINTYThursday, May 31, 12
  32. 32. RESIDUAL UNCERTAINTYThursday, May 31, 12
  33. 33. RESIDUAL UNCERTAINTYThursday, May 31, 12
  34. 34. RESIDUAL UNCERTAINTYThursday, May 31, 12
  35. 35. RESIDUAL UNCERTAINTYThursday, May 31, 12

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