Media trends… what can be learnt from outdoor and prostitutes

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Prepared for Ink to Internet Seminar by Mike Leahy
IBIS Media Data
Tel: (011) 465-3704 mikel@mediamanager.co.za

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Media trends… what can be learnt from outdoor and prostitutes

  1. 1. Media trends…what can be learnt from outdoor and prostitutes<br />Prepared for Ink to Internet Seminar by Mike Leahy<br />IBIS Media Data<br />Tel: (011) 465-3704mikel@mediamanager.co.za<br />
  2. 2. Why am I here today… A unique position in the media industry… Lived through many changes<br />Why Mike Leahy...<br />
  3. 3. Why am I here today… A unique position in the media industry… Lived through many changes Authored books, written articles<br />Why Mike Leahy...<br />
  4. 4. Why am I here today… A unique position in the media industry… Lived through many change Authored books, written articles Media Inflation Watch<br />Why Mike Leahy...<br />
  5. 5. Why am I here today… A unique position in the media industry… Lived through many change Authored books, written articles Media Inflation Watch Media Manager Online<br />Why Mike Leahy...<br />
  6. 6. Why am I here today… A unique position in the media industry… Lived through many change Authored books, written articles Media Inflation Watch Media Manager Online Currently extending Media Manager into brands, to establish relationship between print/radio, online/newsletters and social media <br />Why Mike Leahy...<br />
  7. 7. Why am I here today… A quirky sense of humour <br />Why Mike Leahy...<br />
  8. 8. Explore the forefront of print’s role with electronic media by…<br />What are we going to do together...<br />
  9. 9. Explore the forefront of print’s role with electronic media by… Looking at the development of print and other media. Concentrate on advertising<br />What are we going to do together...<br />
  10. 10. Explore the forefront of print’s role with electronic media by… Looking at the development of print and othermedia. Concentrate on advertising Try to establish a real state of the media<br />What are we going to do together...<br />
  11. 11. Explore the forefront of print’s role with electronic media by… Looking at the development of print and othermedia. Concentrate on advertising Try to establish a real state of the media Use (highly) selective “do-you-knows”<br />What are we going to do together...<br />
  12. 12. Explore the forefront of print’s role with electronic media by… Looking at the development of print and othermedia. Concentrate on advertising Try to establish a real state of the media Use (highly) selective “do-you-knows” Develop a model of media co-existence<br />What are we going to do together...<br />
  13. 13. Explore the forefront of print’s role with electronic media by… Looking at the development of print and othermedia. Concentrate on advertising Try to establish a real state of the media Use (highly) selective “do-you-knows” Develop a model of media co-existence Use common sense<br />What are we going to do together...<br />
  14. 14. Explore the forefront of print’s role with electronic media by… Looking at the development of print and othermedia. Concentrate on advertising Try to establish a real state of the media Use (highly) selective “do-you-knows” Develop a model of media co-existence Use common sense Have a bit of fun<br />What are we going to do together...<br />
  15. 15. Explore the forefront of print’s role with electronic media by… Looking at the development of print and othermedia. Concentrate on advertising Try to establish a real state of the media Use (highly) selective “do-you-knows” Develop a model of media co-existence Use common sense Have a bit of fun<br />Shall we start? <br />What are we going to do together...<br />
  16. 16. “The longer you can look back, the farther you can look forward.” Winston Churchill, House of Commons, 1944<br />Can we learn from the past…?<br />
  17. 17. “The continuation of present trends is the least likely possibility for the future. If history teaches us anything it is that present trends rarely continue long in the same direction and at the same pace. They may go faster or they may go slower, but seldom do they go on as before.” Leon Martel, Mastering Change<br />But…<br />
  18. 18. If I knew what was going to happen tomorrow I’d invest in it and make a fortune.<br />So, predicting the future… not science<br />
  19. 19. If I knew what was going to happen tomorrow I’d invest in it and make a fortune.<br />If you are not confused you don’t know what is happening!<br />So, predicting the future… not science<br />
  20. 20. Oldest known recognised commercial communications medium<br />Far, far back… Outdoor<br />
  21. 21. Oldest known recognised commercial communications medium <br />Quite a few outdoor ads discovered by archaeologists, some are over 3,000 years old<br />Far, far back… Outdoor<br />
  22. 22. Oldest known recognised commercial communications medium <br />Quite a few outdoor ads discovered by archaeologists, some are over 3,000 years old<br />Best known is at Lupanare “House of Pleasure” in Pompei<br />Far, far back… Outdoor<br />
  23. 23. Oldest known recognised commercial communications medium <br />Quite a few known in antiquity, some over 3,000 years old <br />Best known is at Lupanare “House of Pleasure” in Pompei<br />And all of them promote brothels<br />Far, far back… Outdoor<br />
  24. 24. Oldest known recognised commercial communications medium <br />Quite a few known in antiquity, some over 3,000 years old <br />Best known is at Lupanare “House of Pleasure” in Pompei<br />And all of them promote brothels<br />Which gives rise to the saying…“prostitution is the oldest profession, promoting it is the second oldest” <br />Far, far back… Outdoor<br />
  25. 25. As you leave this function look around you… … and recall that in Cape Town between 1947 and 1952 only 2 outdoor hoardings were erected. <br />The last decade… Outdoor<br />
  26. 26. Science fiction…movie Minority Report (2002) has Tom Cruise walking by a row of posters down a street. The posters read his retina, recognise his buying patterns and personalise an ad message and product.<br />The last decade… Outdoor<br />
  27. 27. Science fiction…movie Minority Report (2002) has Tom Cruise walking by a row of posters down a street. The posters read his retina, recognise his buying patterns and personalise an ad message and product.<br />Science fiction no more…stores in the USA are experimenting with software that establishes sex, age and brands being worn. Then offer a suitable product message. <br />The last decade… Outdoor<br />
  28. 28. 1437, Germany. Gutenberg invents moveable type<br />Way back… Print<br />
  29. 29. 1437, Germany. Gutenberg invents moveable type<br />1609, Germany. First “newspaper”<br />Way back… Print<br />
  30. 30. 1437, Germany. Gutenberg invents moveable type<br />1609, Germany. First “newspaper” <br />1645, Sweden. Post-ochInrikesTidningar, oldest newspaper still in “existence<br />Way back… Print<br />
  31. 31. 1437, Germany. Gutenberg invents moveable type<br />1609, Germany. First “newspaper” <br />1645, Sweden. Post-ochInrikesTidningar, oldest newspaper still in “existence” <br />1788, UK. Times of London. Model newspaper for the next 200 years<br />Way back… Print<br />
  32. 32. 1437, Germany. Gutenberg invents moveable type<br />1609, Germany. First “newspaper” <br />1645, Sweden. Post-ochInrikesTidningar, oldest newspaper still in “existence” <br />1788, UK. Times of London. Model newspaper for the next 200 years<br />1800, SA. First SA newspaper. Lasted 13 months<br />Way back… Print<br />
  33. 33. 1437, Germany. Gutenberg invents moveable type<br />1609, Germany. First “newspaper” <br />1645, Sweden. Post-ochInrikesTidningar, oldest newspaper still in “existence” <br />1788, UK. Times of London. Model newspaper for the next 200 years<br />1800, SA. First SA newspaper. Lasted 13 months<br />1830, SA. Grahamstown Journal. In 1920’s it merges with Grocotts Daily Mail<br />Way back… Print<br />
  34. 34. 1437, Germany. Gutenberg invents moveable type<br />1609, Germany. First “newspaper” <br />1645, Sweden. Post-ochInrikesTidningar, oldest newspaper still in “existence” <br />1788, UK. Times of London. Model newspaper for the next 200 years<br />1800, SA. First SA newspaper. Lasted 13 months<br />1830, SA. Grahamstown Journal. In 1920’s it merges with Grocotts Daily Mail<br />Late 19th century, massive growth of newspapers coinciding with universal education.<br />Way back… Print<br />
  35. 35. 1916, NasPers launches Huisgenoot<br />20th century… Print<br />
  36. 36. 1916, NasPers launches Huisgenoot<br />1965, NasPers launches Fair Lady with Jane Raphaely as 1st editor. First gravure magazine in SA<br />20th century… Print<br />
  37. 37. 1916, NasPers launches Huisgenoot<br />1965, NasPers launches Fair Lady with Jane Raphaely as 1st editor. First gravure magazine in SA <br />1981, Martin Creamer starts Engineering News<br />20th century… Print<br />
  38. 38. “Newspapers have a far better past than a future”“For most newspapers in the States, we would not buy them at any price” Warren Buffett & Charlie Manger<br />Some wise words… from the USA<br />
  39. 39. “It may be that no one has followed the newspaper business as closely as we have for as long as we have—50 years or more. It’s been interesting to watch newspaper owners and investors resist seeing what’s going on right in front of them. It used to be you couldn’t make a mistake managing a newspaper. It took no management skill—like TV stations. Your nephew could run one.” Warren Buffett & Charlie Manger<br />Some wise words… from the USA<br />
  40. 40. Dailies best decade…?<br />
  41. 41. 2000 - 2010… Daily Sun 2002Isolezwe 2002 Daily Voice 2005 Son 2005<br />Dailies best decade…?<br />
  42. 42. 2000 - 2010… Daily Sun 2002Isolezwe 2002 Daily Voice 2005 Son 2005 Soccer Laduma 2002<br />Dailies best decade…?<br />
  43. 43. 2000 - 2010… Daily Sun 2002Isolezwe 2002 Daily Voice 2005 Son 2005 Soccer Laduma 2002<br /> Nova 2005<br />Dailies best decade…?<br />
  44. 44. Top 5 dailies…<br />Dailies best decade…?<br />
  45. 45. Impact of new titles…Circulation Q4 2010 Daily Sun, SonIsolezwe, Daily Voice 690,163 (46%) 15 “pre 2000” titles 815,657 (54%) Total 1,505,820 (100%)<br />Dailies best decade…?<br />
  46. 46. Daily Sun circulation… 2009 Q1 507,328 Q2 501,734 Q3 485,019 Q4 492,126 2010 Q1 484,588 Q2 433,224 Q3 411,124 Q4 414,276<br />The fly in the milk…?<br />
  47. 47. Daily Sun circulation… 2009 Q1 507,328 Q2 501,734 Q3 485,019 Q4 492,126 2010 Q1 484,588 Q2 433,224 Q3 411,124 Q4 414,276<br />Fall 2009 Q1 to 2010 Q4 is 93,052Larger than Beeldor Argus & Cape Times combined! <br />The fly in the milk…?<br />
  48. 48. Flipping books… distinct from digital newsletters and online<br />Observation E-ditions… <br />
  49. 49. Flipping books… distinct from digital newsletters and online<br />Push vs pull<br />Observation E-ditions… <br />
  50. 50. ABC circ period 2009 Q4 2010 Q4<br />Star 0 / 149,765170 / 143,084<br />Business Day 0 / 37,108 1,167 / 36,111 <br />Observation E-ditions… <br />
  51. 51. ABC circ period 2009 Q4 2010 Q4<br />Star 0 / 149,765170 / 143,084<br />Business Day 0 / 37,108 1,167 / 36,111<br />Noseweek1,151 / 21,910 1,269 / 20,844<br />SA India 0 / 6,366 3,195 / 8,773<br />Nitelife n/a 8,953 / 11,885 <br />Observation E-ditions… <br />
  52. 52. ABC circ period 2009 Q4 2010 Q4<br />Star 0 / 149,765170 / 143,084<br />Business Day 0 / 37,108 1,167 / 36,111<br />Noseweek1,151 / 21,910 1,269 / 20,844<br />SA India 0 / 6,366 3,195 / 8,773<br />Nitelife n/a 8,953 / 11,885<br />HR Future 0 / 7,743 35,476 / 36,931<br />Accountancy SA 11,049 / 36,593 7,985 / 37,232 <br />Observation E-ditions… <br />
  53. 53. Swedish Press Commission…… determined in that country that 50% penetration of a geographic or demographic market is key to advertisers and importance to community<br />And comment…<br />
  54. 54. Swedish Press Commission…… determined in that country that 50% penetration of a geographic or demographic market is key to advertisers and importance to community… and if penetration falls below this it starts an inexorable decline<br />And comment…<br />
  55. 55. Relevance in SA and the modern era is untested<br />But…<br />And comment…<br />
  56. 56. Relevance in SA and the modern era is untested<br />But…… it drives Caxton’s and Media24’s freesheets<br />And comment…<br />
  57. 57. Relevance in SA and the modern era is untested<br />But…… it drives Caxton’s and Media24’s freesheets.… and Paarl Media’s Shopper’s Friend<br />And comment…<br />
  58. 58. 1895, France. Lumiere Brothers show first public motion picture<br />20th century… Cinema<br />
  59. 59. 1895, France. Lumiere Brothers show first public motion picture <br />1903, USA. First motion picture to tell a story, The Great Train Robbery<br />20th century… Cinema<br />
  60. 60. 1895, France. Lumiere Brothers show first public motion picture <br />1903, USA. First motion picture to tell a story, The Great Train Robbery <br />1910, SA. Wilhelm Wolfram opens 565 seater Wolfram’s Bioscope in CT<br />20th century… Cinema<br />
  61. 61. 1895, France. Lumiere Brothers show first public motion picture <br />1903, USA. First motion picture to tell a story, The Great Train Robbery <br />1910, SA. Wilhelm Wolfram opens 565 seater Wolfram’s Bioscope in CT <br />1911, SA. First SA produced film, Star of Africa<br />20th century… Cinema<br />
  62. 62. 1895, France. Lumiere Brothers show first public motion picture <br />1903, USA. First motion picture to tell a story, The Great Train Robery<br />1910, SA. Wilhelm Wolfram opens 565 seater Wolfram’s Bioscope in CT <br />1911, SA. First SA produced film, Star of Africa<br />1916, SA. First SA epic, De Voortrekkers<br />20th century… Cinema<br />
  63. 63. 1895, France. Lumiere Brothers show first public motion picture <br />1903, USA. First motion picture to tell a story, The Great Train Robery<br />1910, SA. Wilhelm Wolfram opens 565 seater Wolfram’s Bioscope in CT <br />1911, SA. First SA produced film, Star of Africa<br />1916, SA. First SA epic, De Voortrekkers<br />1927, SA. First talkies shown, Jazz Singer<br />20th century… Cinema<br />
  64. 64. 1895, France. Lumiere Brothers show first public motion picture <br />1903, USA. First motion picture to tell a story, The Great Train Robery<br />1910, SA. Wilhelm Wolfram opens 565 seater Wolfram’s Bioscope in CT <br />1911, SA. First SA produced film, Star of Africa<br />1916, SA. First SA epic, De Voortrekkers<br />1927, SA. First talkies shown, Jazz Singer<br />1928, USA. Micky Mouse <br />20th century… Cinema<br />
  65. 65. 1929, SA. First full length talkie screened, JHB<br />20th century… Cinema<br />
  66. 66. 1929, SA. First full length talkie screened, JHB<br />1929, Technicolor<br />20th century… Cinema<br />
  67. 67. 1929, SA. First full length talkie screened, JHB<br />1929, Technicolor<br />1964, SA. Zulu shot in KZN. Stared Michael Caine, Jack Hawkins and Chief Mangosuthu Buthelezi<br />20th century… Cinema<br />
  68. 68. 1929, SA. First full length talkie screened, JHB<br />1929, Technicolor<br />1964, SA. Zulu shot in KZN. Stared Michael Caine, Jack Hawkins and Chief Mangosuthu Buthelezi <br />1977, Star Wars<br />20th century… Cinema<br />
  69. 69. Obscene interest in the life of movie stars<br />The last decade… Cinema<br />
  70. 70. Obscene interest in the life of movie stars<br />Film Academy Awards, the “Oscars”<br />The last decade… Cinema<br />
  71. 71. Obscene interest in the life of movie stars<br />Film Academy Awards, the “Oscars”<br />Multiplexes<br />The last decade… Cinema<br />
  72. 72. Obscene interest in the life of movie stars<br />Film Academy Awards, the “Oscars”<br />Multiplexes<br />More screens exist now than any previous decade<br />The last decade… Cinema<br />
  73. 73. Obscene interest in the life of movie stars<br />Film Academy Awards, the “Oscars”<br />Multiplexes<br />More screens exist now than any previous decade<br />Digital conversion<br />The last decade… Cinema<br />
  74. 74. 1896, USA. Guglielmo Marconi granted patent for wireless<br />20th century… Radio<br />
  75. 75. 1896, USA. Guglielmo Marconi granted patent for wireless telegraphy <br />1899, SA. Edward Jennings achieves record transmission distance of 12.5km<br />20th century… Radio<br />
  76. 76. 1896, USA. Guglielmo Marconi granted patent for wireless telegraphy <br />1899, SA. Edward Jennings achieves record transmission distance of 12.5km <br />1915, USA. David Sarnoff submits the idea for a “radio music box.” In 1921 he is appointed GM of RCA. Creates NBC in 1926<br />20th century… Radio<br />
  77. 77. 1896, USA. Guglielmo Marconi granted patent for wireless telegraphy <br />1899, SA. Edward Jennings achieves record transmission distance of 12.5km <br />1915, USA. David Sarnoff submits the idea for a “radio music box.” In 1921 he is appointed GM of RCA. Creates NBC in 1926 <br />1922, UK. BBC founded<br />20th century… Radio<br />
  78. 78. 1896, USA. Guglielmo Marconi granted patent for wireless telegraphy <br />1899, SA. Edward Jennings achieves record transmission distance of 12.5km <br />1915, USA. David Sarnoff submits the idea for a “radio music box.” In 1921 he is appointed GM of RCA. Creates NBC in 1926 <br />1922, UK. BBC founded<br />1924, SA. First radio stations in JHB and CT<br />20th century… Radio<br />
  79. 79. 1896, USA. Guglielmo Marconi granted patent for wireless telegraphy <br />1899, SA. Edward Jennings achieves record transmission distance of 12.5km <br />1915, USA. David Sarnoff submits the idea for a “radio music box.” In 1921 he is appointed GM of RCA. Creates NBC in 1926 <br />1922, UK. BBC founded.<br />1924, SA. First radio stations in JHB and CT<br />1925, SA. First rugby match broadcast, Newlands <br />20th century… Radio<br />
  80. 80. 1927, SA. African Broadcasting Corporation founded. Becomes SABC in 1936 <br />20th century… Radio<br />
  81. 81. 1927, SA. African Broadcasting Corporation founded. Becomes SABC in 1936<br />1934, Mozambique. Radio LM starts up. Sold to SABC in 1972 and renamed 5 fm<br />20th century… Radio<br />
  82. 82. 1927, SA. African Broadcasting Corporation founded. Becomes SABC in 1936<br />1934, Mozambique. Radio LM starts up. Sold to SABC in 1972 and renamed 5 fm<br />1950, SA. Springbok Radio. 1st station to carry commercials since 1936. Closes end of 1985<br />20th century… Radio<br />
  83. 83. 1927, SA. African Broadcasting Corporation founded. Becomes SABC in 1936<br />1934, Mozambique. Radio LM starts up. Sold to SABC in 1972 and renamed 5 fm<br />1950, SA. Springbok Radio. 1st station to carry commercials since 1936. Closes end of 1985<br />1964, SA. Highveld launched<br />20th century… Radio<br />
  84. 84. 1927, SA. African Broadcasting Corporation founded. Becomes SABC in 1936<br />1934, Mozambique. Radio LM starts up. Sold to SABC in 1972 and renamed 5 fm<br />1950, SA. Springbok Radio. 1st station to carry commercials since 1936. Closes end of 1985<br />1964, SA. Highveld launched<br />1980, SA. 702 starts. Broadcasts from Bophuthatswana<br />20th century… Radio<br />
  85. 85. 1927, SA. African Broadcasting Corporation founded. Becomes SABC in 1936<br />1934, Mozambique. Radio LM starts up. Sold to SABC in 1972 and renamed 5 fm<br />1950, SA. Springbok Radio. 1st station to carry commercials since 1936. Closes end of 1985<br />1964, SA. Highveld launched<br />1980, SA. 702 starts. Broadcasts from Bophuthatswana<br />1996, SA. Commercial & community radio comes to SA <br />20th century… Radio<br />
  86. 86. Internet radio stations 2Oceans vibe<br />More recent… Radio<br />
  87. 87. Internet radio stations 2Oceans vibe <br />Broadcast radio using internet as a “community” resource<br />More recent… Radio<br />
  88. 88. Internet radio stations 2Oceans vibe <br />Broadcast radio using internet as a “community” resource<br />Good revenues2009 R millions Metro (SABC) R308 Jacaranda R293 Highveld R282 <br />More recent… Radio<br />
  89. 89. 1926, UK. John Logie Baird demonstrates a 30 line TV image <br />1926… TV<br />
  90. 90. 1926, UK. John Logie Baird demonstrates a 30 line TV image<br />1929, SA. TV is demonstrated in Cape Town & Johannesburg <br />1926… TV<br />
  91. 91. 1926, UK. John Logie Baird demonstrates a 30 line TV image<br />1929, SA. TV is demonstrated in Cape Town & Johannesburg<br />1936, UK. BBC start the first TV service <br />1926… TV<br />
  92. 92. 1926, UK. John Logie Baird demonstrates a 30 line TV image<br />1929, SA. TV is demonstrated in Cape Town & Johannesburg<br />1936, UK. BBC start the first TV service<br />1939, USA. RCA start a TV service “It is with a feeling of humbleness that I come to this moment of announcing the birth in this country of a new art so important in its implications that it is bound to affect all society” David Sarnoff <br />1926… TV<br />
  93. 93. 1941, USA. Commercial TV <br />1926… TV<br />
  94. 94. 1941, USA. Commercial TV<br />1951, USA. First colour transmission <br />1926… TV<br />
  95. 95. 1941, USA. Commercial TV<br />1951, USA. First colour transmission<br />1962, USA. Telstar satellite. First TV images transmitted between USA, Europe & Japan. Plus telecommunications <br />1926… TV<br />
  96. 96. 1941, USA. Commercial TV<br />1951, USA. First colour transmission<br />1962, USA. Telstar satellite. First TV images transmitted between USA, Europe & Japan. Plus telecommunications <br />1972, USA. First cable network, Home Box Office<br />1926… TV<br />
  97. 97. 1941, USA. Commercial TV<br />1951, USA. First colour transmission<br />1962, USA. Telstar satellite. First TV images transmitted between USA, Europe & Japan. Plus telecommunications <br />1972, USA. First cable network, Home Box Office<br />1974, SA. TV test broadcasts begin<br />1926… TV<br />
  98. 98. 1941, USA. Commercial TV<br />1951, USA. First colour transmission<br />1962, USA. Telstar satellite. First TV images transmitted between USA, Europe & Japan. Plus telecommunications <br />1972, USA. First cable network, Home Box Office<br />1974, SA. TV test broadcasts begin<br />1976, SA. First official broadcast starts. Inaugorated by then PM John Vorster<br />1926… TV<br />
  99. 99. 1941, USA. Commercial TV<br />1951, USA. First colour transmission<br />1962, USA. Telstar satellite. First TV images transmitted between USA, Europe & Japan. Plus telecommunications <br />1972, USA. First cable network, Home Box Office<br />1974, SA. TV test broadcasts begin<br />1976, SA. First official broadcast starts. Inaugorated by then PM John Vorster<br />1978, SA. TV goes commercial<br />1926… TV<br />
  100. 100. 1982, SA. TV2/3 for Nguni/Sotho speakers starts <br />1926… TV<br />
  101. 101. 1982, SA. TV2/3 for Nguni/Sotho speakers starts<br />1985, SA. TV4 launched. Aims to compete against new station M-Net<br />1986, SA. M-Net launched <br />1926… TV<br />
  102. 102. 1982, SA. TV2/3 for Nguni/Sotho speakers starts<br />1985, SA. TV4 launched. Aims to compete against new station M-Net<br />1986, SA. M-Net launched<br />1990, SA. M-Net reaches 500,000 subscribers. Launches KTV<br />1926… TV<br />
  103. 103. 1982, SA. TV2/3 for Nguni/Sotho speakers starts<br />1985, SA. TV4 launched. Aims to compete against new station M-Net<br />1986, SA. M-Net launched<br />1990, SA. M-Net reaches 500,000 subscribers. Launches KTV<br />1995, SA. DStv starts<br />1926… TV<br />
  104. 104. 1982, SA. TV2/3 for Nguni/Sotho speakers starts<br />1985, SA. TV4 launched. Aims to compete against new station M-Net<br />1986, SA. M-Net launched<br />1990, SA. M-Net reaches 500,000 subscribers. Launches KTV<br />1995, SA. DStv starts<br />1926… TV<br />
  105. 105. 1982, SA. TV2/3 for Nguni/Sotho speakers starts<br />1985, SA. TV4 launched. Aims to compete against new station M-Net<br />1986, SA. M-Net launched<br />1990, SA. M-Net reaches 500,000 subscribers. Launches KTV<br />1995, SA. DStv starts<br />2000, SA. DStv reaches 490,000 subscribers with 50 channelsDStv starts interactive service<br />1926… TV<br />
  106. 106. DStv… over 2,000,000 subscribers (SA only) over 100 channels<br />Top TV<br />More recent… TV<br />
  107. 107. 1939, First digital computer <br />Latest… Internet<br />
  108. 108. 1939, First digital computer<br />1947, Transistor<br />Latest… Internet<br />
  109. 109. 1939, First digital computer<br />1947, Transistor<br />1948, First machine with memory & storage of information<br />Latest… Internet<br />
  110. 110. 1939, First digital computer<br />1947, Transistor<br />1948, First machine with memory & storage of information<br />1951, First commercially available computer<br />Latest… Internet<br />
  111. 111. 1939, First digital computer<br />1947, Transistor<br />1948, First machine with memory & storage of information<br />1951, First commercially available computer<br />1956, First hard disks. 5MB on 50x24 inch disks<br />Latest… Internet<br />
  112. 112. 1939, First digital computer<br />1947, Transistor<br />1948, First machine with memory & storage of information<br />1951, First commercially available computer<br />1956, First hard disks. 5MB on 50x24 inch disks<br />1959, Integrated circuits<br />Latest… Internet<br />
  113. 113. 1939, First digital computer<br />1947, Transistor<br />1948, First machine with memory & storage of information<br />1951, First commercially available computer<br />1956, First hard disks. 5MB on 50x24 inch disks<br />1959, Integrated circuits<br />1963, X-Y Position indicator for a display system. We call it the Mouse<br />Latest… Internet<br />
  114. 114. 1939, First digital computer<br />1947, Transistor<br />1948, First machine with memory & storage of information<br />1951, First commercially available computer<br />1956, First hard disks. 5MB on 50x24 inch disks<br />1959, Integrated circuits<br />1963, X-Y Position indicator for a display system. We call it the Mouse<br />1969, First of the Internets, ARPANET<br />Latest… Internet<br />
  115. 115. 1971, Intel invents the microprocessor for a Japanese calculator <br />Latest… Internet<br />
  116. 116. 1971, Intel invents the microprocessor for a Japanese calculator<br />1972, First modem <br />Latest… Internet<br />
  117. 117. 1971, Intel invents the microprocessor for a Japanese calculator<br />1972, First modem<br />1973, TCO/IP, the future basis of the Internet, invented by Vin Cerf <br />Latest… Internet<br />
  118. 118. 1971, Intel invents the microprocessor for a Japanese calculator<br />1972, First modem<br />1973, TCO/IP, the future basis of the Internet, invented by Vin Cerf<br />1974, First desktop computerTerm “Internet” first used <br />Latest… Internet<br />
  119. 119. 1971, Intel invents the microprocessor for a Japanese calculator<br />1972, First modem<br />1973, TCO/IP, the future basis of the Internet, invented by Vin Cerf<br />1974, First desktop computerTerm “Internet” first used<br />1975, Microsoft founded <br />Latest… Internet<br />
  120. 120. 1971, Intel invents the microprocessor for a Japanese calculator<br />1972, First modem<br />1973, TCO/IP, the future basis of the Internet, invented by Vin Cerf<br />1974, First desktop computerTerm “Internet” first used<br />1975, Microsoft founded<br />1979, First Apple computer <br />Latest… Internet<br />
  121. 121. 1971, Intel invents the microprocessor for a Japanese calculator<br />1972, First modem<br />1973, TCO/IP, the future basis of the Internet, invented by Vin Cerf<br />1974, First desktop computerTerm “Internet” first used<br />1975, Microsoft founded<br />1979, First Apple computer<br />1981, First IBM PC <br />Latest… Internet<br />
  122. 122. 1971, Intel invents the microprocessor for a Japanese calculator<br />1972, First modem<br />1973, TCO/IP, the future basis of the Internet, invented by Vin Cerf<br />1974, First desktop computerTerm “Internet” first used<br />1975, Microsoft founded<br />1979, First Apple computer<br />1981, First IBM PC<br />1983, Windows announced (released 1990), Excel <br />Latest… Internet<br />
  123. 123. 1990, Tim Berners-Lee writes basis of WWW. Released to the world in 1992<br />Latest… Internet<br />
  124. 124. 1990, Tim Berners-Lee writes basis of WWW. Released to the world in 1992<br />1991, Internet allowed to go commercialSA is second country in Africa to be connected<br />Latest… Internet<br />
  125. 125. 1990, Tim Berners-Lee writes basis of WWW. Released to the world in 1992<br />1991, Internet allowed to go commercialSA is second country in Africa to be connected<br />1992, 1 million internet hosts, Rises to 16 million inJan 1997<br />Latest… Internet<br />
  126. 126. 1990, Tim Berners-Lee writes basis of WWW. Released to the world in 1992<br />1991, Internet allowed to go commercialSA is second country in Africa to be connected<br />1992, 1 million internet hosts, Rises to 16 million inJan 1997<br />1994, Mosaic, the first popular internet browser<br />Latest… Internet<br />
  127. 127. 1990, Tim Berners-Lee writes basis of WWW. Released to the world in 1992<br />1991, Internet allowed to go commercialSA is second country in Africa to be connected<br />1992, 1 million internet hosts, Rises to 16 million inJan 1997<br />1994, Mosaic, the first popular internet browser<br />1995, Amazon opens for business<br />Latest… Internet<br />
  128. 128. 1990, Tim Berners-Lee writes basis of WWW. Released to the world in 1992<br />1991, Internet allowed to go commercialSA is second country in Africa to be connected<br />1992, 1 million internet hosts, Rises to 16 million inJan 1997<br />1994, Mosaic, the first popular internet browser<br />1995, Amazon opens for business<br />1996, Internet Explorer 3 released <br />Latest… Internet<br />
  129. 129. 1990, Tim Berners-Lee writes basis of WWW. Released to the world in 1992<br />1991, Internet allowed to go commercialSA is second country in Africa to be connected<br />1992, 1 million internet hosts, Rises to 16 million inJan 1997<br />1994, Mosaic, the first popular internet browser<br />1995, Amazon opens for business<br />1996, Internet Explorer 3 released<br />2000, Dot com turns into Dot bomb <br />Latest… Internet<br />
  130. 130. SA Internet user traffic Source: Alexa.com (& DMMA ave daily unique visitors in ‘000, November 2010)1. Google.co.za2. Facebook3. Google.com4. YouTube5. Yahoo6. Wikipedia7. Twitter9. GumTree.co.za (no DMMA stats)10. News24 (182.5)11. LinkedIn<br />Internet… most popular sites<br />
  131. 131. 12. Standard Bank (non-commercial)13. ABSA Bank (non-commercial)14. Windows Live15. First National Bank (non-commercial)16. WordPress.com (blogs)17. Amazon.com18. MSN.com (167.3)19. Independent Online (59.3)20. Microsoft21. Flickr22. Bing23. MyBroadband (22.4)24. BBC Online<br />Internet… most popular sites<br />
  132. 132. 25. BidOrBuy (no DMMA stats)26. About.com27. Co.za Domain (non-commercial)28. Mweb (68.5)29. PayPal30. WordPress31. Internet Movie Database32. Google UK33. NedSecure (non-commercial)34. BizCommunity (12.8)35. Supersport (45.4)36. AWeberSystems37. Apple<br />Internet… most popular sites<br />
  133. 133. 38. PirateBay (Bittorent)39. TimesLive (34.9)40. Sport24 (41.2)41. Adobe42. eHow43. GoogleUserContent44. Kalahari.net (no DMMA stats)45. ZA.net (non-commercial)46. JunkMailClassifieds (35.0)47. EzineArticles48. ESPNcrickinfo49. MyCityDeal.co.za (commerce site)50. Fin24 (30.6)<br />Internet… most popular sites<br />
  134. 134. StarCirculation Q4 2010 143,084Readers ave issue (AMPS2009/10) 561,0004/5 out of 5 readers 323,000 (58%)<br />News24Unique browsers ave day Nov ‘10 182,000Unique browsers avefreq Nov ‘10 3.96<br />IOLUnique browsers ave day Nov ’10 59,300Unique browsers avefreq Nov ’10 3.74 . <br />Print vs Internet…<br />
  135. 135. Average Print Consumer loyalvsAverage Online Consumer disloyal<br />Print vs Internet…<br />
  136. 136. Average Print Consumer loyalvsAverage Online Consumer disloyal<br />Why…Distribution limitations of print = less choiceNo distribution limitations of online, because “they can”<br />. <br />Print vs Internet…<br />
  137. 137. Average Print Consumer loyalvsAverage Online Consumer disloyal<br />Why…Distribution limitations of print = less choiceNo distribution limitations of online, because “they can”<br />Massive implications for media planning and buying. <br />Print vs Internet…<br />
  138. 138. Growth of media in SA…<br />
  139. 139. Ad value of media in SA…<br />
  140. 140. Time lag between invention and commercial application<br />What can be learnt…<br />
  141. 141. Time lag between invention and commercial application <br />Pace of change is accelerating<br />What can be learnt…<br />
  142. 142. Time lag between invention and commercial application <br />Pace of change is accelerating<br />Technology is an enabler<br />What can be learnt…<br />
  143. 143. Time lag between invention and commercial application <br />Pace of change is accelerating<br />Technology is an enabler<br />New media change the old<br />What can be learnt…<br />
  144. 144. Time lag between invention and commercial application <br />Pace of change is accelerating<br />Technology is an enabler<br />New media change the old <br />No medium has disappeared! <br />What can be learnt…<br />
  145. 145. Time lag between invention and commercial application <br />Pace of change is accelerating<br />Technology is an enabler<br />New media change the old <br />No medium has disappeared!<br />So lets not forget the non-new in the hype of the new-new. <br />What can be learnt…<br />
  146. 146. How do media coexist…<br />Ministry of Posts & Telecommunications, Japan model…<br />
  147. 147. How do media coexist…<br />Informationage<br />Book<br />Movie<br />Theatre<br />Monthly mag.<br />Special interest<br />Magazine<br />Weekly mag.<br />Outdoor<br />Letter<br /> Newspaper<br />NEW MEDIA<br />AREA<br />Television<br />Conversation<br />Telephone<br /> Radio<br />Audience<br />Size<br />
  148. 148. Media consumption imperatives…<br />People do not consume media equally… <br />High Print/Low TV<br />High Print/High TV<br />Print<br />Low Print/Low TV<br />High TV/Low print<br />TV<br />
  149. 149. Questions?<br />
  150. 150. Thank youTo contact Mike Leahy011-465-3704mikel@mediamanager.co.za<br />
  151. 151. But there are underlying pressures<br />I constructed my 10 megatrends some 20 years ago for a presentation to a international Coca Cola media forum<br />Their relevance remains undiminished<br />The future…not a science<br />
  152. 152. Marshall McLuhan “medium is the message”<br />Print, online = cool = active involvement<br />TV, radio = hot = inactive involvement<br />Another dimension…. heat<br />
  153. 153. Three dimensional model…<br />
  154. 154. Media are products to be consumed in much the same way as baked beans or paint, irrespective of whether they are advertiser driven or a result of consumer demand<br />More media means increasing competition for people’s time<br />The net result is the average medium must get a smaller proportion of overall consumptionBY a smaller proportion of the average person’s timeAND/OR fewer people consuming<br />Trend 1<br />
  155. 155. The other side of the explosion of media availability is the rise of media specifically geared to tacking smaller homogeneous groups of people on a geographic, racial or special interest basis<br />“We are the world’s last great general interest mag…”Readers Digest ad of a few years ago<br />Of the hundreds of mags launched since 1987 only one success is classified as general interest<br />The old Highveld is now 94.7, Jacaranda, Ofm<br />M-Net is cannibalising itself into DStv <br />Trend 2Broadcasting to narrowcasting<br />
  156. 156. Ultimately, the extent to which one can narrowcast will depend upon the viability of medium’s reach of a target, its value and its editorial/advertising package<br />Personal salesmen may end up cheaper<br />Trend 2Broadcasting to narrowcasting<br />
  157. 157. Traditional thinking… “Anything good is worth paying for” “Anything paid for must be valued”Thus… Paid media are good, free media are less good<br />But… Radio is free TV is “free” to large numbers of people Internet is largely free Much print is free<br />Push vs pull, Paid vs Free…<br />
  158. 158. Mass media cost an arm and a leg merely to buy a single meaningful unit<br />Smaller, narrowcast media can afford to charge less so that more frequency OR greater impact (ie., larger sizes) can be purchased within a budget<br />But along with this trend is…<br />Trend 3High unit cost to low unit cost<br />
  159. 159. A mass medium’s rates is based on its own (and its competitive) cost and profit structure<br />Small media do not enjoy the economies of scale of large media<br />Hence the trend to narrowcasting is at the expense of cost efficiency<br />As we have seen audience delivery is getting proportionately more expensive<br />This is less of a problem because of the next trend…<br />Trend 4Cheap CPM to expensive<br />
  160. 160. Traditional media research and planning processes are orientated towards thinking cost efficiency of audience delivery rather than the more important issue of return on media investment –“is it going to work”<br />The “where it will work best” decision has tended to be the realm of the creative and marketing decision maker, and is increasing led by retail and direct response techniques <br />Trend 5Cost efficiency to cost effectiveness<br />
  161. 161. Trend 6: Above vs below the line to Blow the line<br />As media narrowcasts the distinction between commission bearing and non-commission bearing media blurs<br />Sponsorship, promotions, PR are all increasing at levels far exceeding traditional media advertising<br />Most marketers automatically think media in its broadest context, not those in AMPS or listed in Media Manager <br />
  162. 162. AMPS is no longer the only game in town<br />AMPS meters now over 16 years old<br />Technology to the fore, allied to techniques of direct response: scanners, databases, e-commerce<br />Proprietary research, media owner research, innovative marketing services departments, WWW<br />But frail samples and data overload<br />Trend 7More data faster<br />
  163. 163. Trend 8Sellers market to buyers market<br />All rate cards are now printed on rubber<br />Add value<br />
  164. 164. Trend 9: More oligopolies(fewer competitors)<br />Paradoxically, more media availability results in fewer strong media owners<br />This despite legislation<br />These are able to exert considerable pressure via finance AND supplies<br />Moreover these strong media owners are able to exert influence on buyers out of proportion to their already considerable market positions<br />
  165. 165. Accelerating change in: society technology markets competition the communications industry the data industry<br />The drums of change are now a whole symphony! <br />Trend 10Accelerating volatility<br />
  166. 166. Media rates don’t go down<br />The bottom lineFor advertisers<br />
  167. 167. Media rates don’t go down<br />Like junkies you have to buy more media to get the same performance<br />The bottom lineFor advertisers<br />
  168. 168. Media rates don’t go down<br />Like junkies you have to buy more media to get the same performance<br />Media schedules have to get longer to do the same job<br />The bottom lineFor advertisers<br />
  169. 169. Media rates don’t go down<br />Like junkies you have to buy more media to get the same performance<br />Media schedules have to get longer to do the same job<br />Few budgets increase in proportion to media inflationMore money – less bang<br />The bottom lineFor advertisers<br />
  170. 170. Media rates don’t go down<br />Like junkies you have to buy more media to get the same performance<br />Media schedules have to get longer to do the same job<br />Few budgets increase in proportion to media inflationMore money – less bang<br />Media rate inflation/performance deflation/growing communications clutter is making non-advertising communication alternatives ever more viable<br />The bottom lineFor advertisers<br />
  171. 171. Decision making is getting harder, short cuts have to be made(the reality – a media buyer selecting 10 alternatives out of 100 has 17,310,000,000,000 different combinations. If she could analyse 1 alternative every second, it would take ½ a million years to complete the analysis)<br />The bottom lineFor media planners/buyers<br />
  172. 172. Decision making is getting harder, short cuts have to be made(the reality – a media buyer selecting 10 alternatives out of 100 has 17,310,000,000,000 different combinations. If she could analyse 1 alternative every second, it would take ½ a million years to complete the analysis)<br />Greater reliance on qualitative information, but lack of resources to understand or manage the process<br />The bottom lineFor media planners/buyers<br />
  173. 173. Decision making is getting harder, short cuts have to be made(the reality – a media buyer selecting 10 alternatives out of 100 has 17,310,000,000,000 different combinations. If she could analyse 1 alternative every second, it would take ½ a million years to complete the analysis)<br />Greater reliance on qualitative information, but lack of resources to understand or manage the process<br />Increasing pressure on planning resources: time, energy, experience, need for negotiation etc etc<br />The bottom lineFor media planners/buyers<br />
  174. 174. Increased pressure on salesfolk to deliver. But it is harder to get to buyers<br />The bottom lineFor media owners<br />
  175. 175. Increased pressure on salesfolk to deliver. But it is harder to get to buyers<br />Harder to pull in advertisers, a shrinking list<br />The bottom lineFor media owners<br />
  176. 176. Increased pressure on salesfolk to deliver. But it is harder to get to buyers<br />Harder to pull in advertisers, a shrinking list<br />Consumers are brought in by content, content, content. But quality editorial staff are harder to find and manage<br />The bottom lineFor media owners<br />
  177. 177. Increased pressure on salesfolk to deliver. But it is harder to get to buyers<br />Harder to pull in advertisers, a shrinking list<br />Consumers are brought in by content, content, content. But quality editorial staff are harder to find and manage<br />Explosion of “niches” - not enough money in those niches - barriers to entry increasingly lower - barriers to success increasingly higher<br />The bottom lineFor media owners<br />
  178. 178. Increased pressure on salesfolk to deliver. But it is harder to get to buyers<br />Harder to pull in advertisers, a shrinking list<br />Consumers are brought in by content, content, content. But quality editorial staff are harder to find and manage<br />Explosion of “niches” - not enough money in those niches - barriers to entry increasingly lower - barriers to success increasingly higher<br />Media owners have to run harder to stand still<br />The bottom lineFor media owners<br />
  179. 179. Please don’t rush out and find a new career!I have not intended to be negative, just realistic<br />The bottom line...<br />
  180. 180. Please don’t rush out and find a new career!I have not intended to be negative, just realistic<br />Remember, media is still the most fun you can have with your clothes on!<br />The bottom line...<br />
  181. 181. But first ... a warning<br />Media Inflation stats cover cost and associates this with performance<br />It does not cover value<br />Performance stats are the lowest common denominator<br />Base rates are used<br />Media owners do not have to justify rates! If buyers do not like the rate they can turn to an alternative medium. Or chose not to advertise!Thus Media Inflation Watch represents a monitor of trends, not absolutes!<br />
  182. 182. Media InflationIs it a problem?<br />Background<br />
  183. 183. Media Inflation components<br />The two components of media inflation:<br />Cyclical inflationrates go up more or less depending on the state of the economy and competitive pressure.This is rate inflation.<br />Structural inflationthe average medium delivers less and less each year. The ‘pack sizes’ are getting smaller.This is performance deflation.<br />
  184. 184. Media Inflation components<br />Like a can of beans! Each year the retail price goes up...But each year there are fewer beans in the can!<br />It is not a uniquely SA phenomenon.It is an international problem.<br />
  185. 185. Media planners were last polled on issues affecting their business by Financial Mail in the AdFocus supplement of 1997:<br />But is media inflation a problem?<br />
  186. 186. But is media inflation a problem?<br />Media inflation was…- voted the most serious issue in media by media planners- voted as more serious than the shenanigans of the IBA- voted as more serious than the future of TV<br />Why?- planners concerned that media inflation is devaluing the currency of brand advertising<br />
  187. 187. But is media inflation a problem?<br />I would suggest that nothing has changed since that ‘vote’ back in 1997!<br />Let us look at media compared to a long term index with relevance to marketing<br />
  188. 188. But which long term relevant index?<br />Consumer Price Index<br />Producer Price Index<br />Mars bar index<br />Big Mac index<br />But is media inflation a problem? <br />
  189. 189. A true measure of the cost of living – a six pack of Castle Lager – the brand that stood the test of time<br />Divide the cost of a unit of advertising by the cost of a sixpack of Castle.<br />Then compare the quantity of sixpacks sold in order to determine the break-even sales figure for SAB’s return on their advertising investment.<br />Introducing the Charles Glass index<br />
  190. 190. Charles Glass Index<br /><ul><li>Cost of an 8 title schedule rose by 2,152% between 1975 and 2000.
  191. 191. In 1975 SAB had to sell almost 7,000 sixpacks in order to break even on the package of space.
  192. 192. In 2000 the number of sixpacks to break even had risen to over 11,500 – a 68% increase.
  193. 193. Circulation has scarcely changed in 25 years.</li></li></ul><li>Charles Glass Index<br /><ul><li>Cost of 1 spot in drive time on each of 12 stations rose by 20,118% between 1975 and 2000.
  194. 194. In 1975 SAB had to sell 97 sixpacks in order to break even on the package of airtime.
  195. 195. In 2000 the number of sixpacks to break even had risen to over 1,466 – an increase of over 1,400%.
  196. 196. Performance cannot be compared. However the footprint of some of these stations is dramatically decreased!</li></li></ul><li>Charles Glass Index<br />
  197. 197. Charles Glass Index<br /><ul><li>Adspend – above the line – increased by over 5,200% in 25 years.
  198. 198. But the proportion of ATL as a percentage of total spend on commercial communications decreases.
  199. 199. In order to maintain their share of ATL voice between 1975 and 2000, SAB would have had to increase spend by over 5,000%. And still their share of total communications voice would have shrunk!</li></li></ul><li>Conclusion...Media Inflation is a real problem for Mr. Charles Glass and Castle<br />Charles Glass index<br />
  200. 200. Media Inflation<br />1987 - 2008<br />
  201. 201. 21 year view...<br />Rate...CPI: 559<br />All Media: 1192<br />AdSpend: 2651<br />
  202. 202. Spend is up by 2641%<br />Compared to rates at 1092%<br />Compared to the CPI of 459%<br />Non media spend – promotions, sponsorship, BTL etc etcetc has grown even more.<br />Hey, what is all the fuss about...<br />
  203. 203. Down and dirty...a look at the more recent details<br />
  204. 204. Media Megatrends<br />

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