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Lewison Lem, Ph.D., M.P.A. 
Principal Consultant 
April 16, 2010 
Portland State University 
Center for Transportation Stu...
Lem -- Jack 4/16/2010 Faucett Associates 2
Source: Stern Review - 
4/16/2010 Lem -- Jack Faucett Associates 3
The Contribution of the Transportation Sector to 
Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the United States 
 The 
transportation 
sec...
Comparison of Transportation % Share of GHG 
Emissions at City, County, and State Level 
Transport 
Sector 
Community 
Wid...
4/16/2010 Lem -- Jack Faucett Associates 6
US Forecast New LDV and Total LDV Fleet Fuel 
Efficiency with Obama 2009 CAFE 
40 
35 
Miles per Gallon Gasoline Equivalen...
Biofuels Show Net Costs, Not Savings, 
as a GHG Mitigation Measure 
$150 
$120 
$97 / ton 
$136 / ton 
$72 / ton 
$90 
$60...
Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) 
Offers More Versatile Policy Tool 
 LCFS allows for consideration of: 
 Different Fuel Ty...
LCFS policy increasingly under 
consideration among the states 
States 
 Oregon 
 Washington 
California 
Multi-State Regi...
State of New Jersey LCFS Scenarios: 
Plug-in Hybrids and Electric Vehicles 
$500 $410 / ton 
$400 
Conventional Electricit...
4/16/2010 Lem -- Jack Faucett Associates 14
State of New Jersey VMT per capita historic trend 
Miles per year per person 
VMT per Capita 
9000 
8500 
8000 
Data from ...
New Jersey VMT baseline forecast 
and feasibility-tested forecast 
 The baseline forecast of VMT in the absence of new tec...
Global Comparisons Show Gradient 
of Per Capita Transportation Energy 
Use in Urban Areas 
4/16/2010 Lem -- Jack Faucett A...
4/16/2010 Lem -- Jack Faucett Associates 18
“Transit/Land Use Leverage” 
 The analysis of the potential for VMT efficiency and 
associated GHG emissions reduction rel...
USDOT/FTA and APTA both recognize 
Transit/Land Use Leverage 
 The American Public Transportation Association 
(APTA) and ...
Philadelphia and New York Transit Agency 
Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventories 
4/16/2010 Lem -- Jack Faucett Associates 2...
4/16/2010 Lem -- Jack Faucett Associates 22
The “Transit Paradox”: 
As Transit Agency Emissions Go Up, 
Regional Emissions Go Down 
Agency 
Emissions 
Regional 
Agenc...
APTA GHG Standards 
Guideline Recommendation 
 National default multiplier of 1.9 
 Used for sketch-planning applications ...
Overall Transit Agency 
GHG Avoidance Multiplier 
SEPTA 
Overall Transit Multiplier: 3 
NY MTA: 
Overall Transit Multiplie...
Goods Movement Produces 27% of 
Transportation Sector GHG Emissions 
57% 
2% 
2% 
18% 
2% 
5% 
10% 
Light Duty Vehicles 5%...
A View of Port Related 
Greenhouse Gas Emissions 
Lem -- Jack 4/16/2010 Faucett Associates 28
Port Categories of Transportation Related 
GHG Emissions 
Ocean 
Going 
Vessels 
Harbor 
Craft 
Heavy- 
Duty 
Vehicles 
Ma...
Port of New York and New Jersey 2008 
Estimates of GHG Emissions 
Lem -- Jack 4/16/2010 Faucett Associates 30
Summary of Port of NY/NJ Baseline 
Forecast and 3 Reduction Scenarios (JFA) 
Lem -- Jack 4/16/2010 Faucett Associates 31
Potential Goods Movement GHG Reduction 
Estimates for Port of New York and New Jersey 
Three Preliminary GHG 
Emissions Re...
4/16/2010 Lem -- Jack Faucett Associates 33
4/16/2010 Lem -- Jack Faucett Associates 34
4/16/2010 Lem -- Jack Faucett Associates 35
Truck Anti-Idling: National Scenario Summary 
(2020 year, 2007$)* 
1.7 bil 
20.3 
$125 
$100 
$75 
$50 
MMtCO2e 
$25 
125 ...
Truck-to-Rail Shift: National Scenario Summary 
(2020 year, 2007$)* 
3.0 bil 
39.1 
MMtCO2e 
$125 
$100 
$75 
$50 
$25 
12...
Thank You for your interest: 
Lewison Lem, Ph.D. 
Climate Change Practice Leader 
Jack Faucett Associates (JFA) 
Lem.JFA@g...
Promising Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Strategies for the Transportation Sector
Promising Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Strategies for the Transportation Sector
Promising Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Strategies for the Transportation Sector
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Promising Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Strategies for the Transportation Sector

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Lewison Lem, Principal Consultant and Climate Change Practice Leader, Jack Faucett Associates

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Promising Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Strategies for the Transportation Sector

  1. 1. Lewison Lem, Ph.D., M.P.A. Principal Consultant April 16, 2010 Portland State University Center for Transportation Studies
  2. 2. Lem -- Jack 4/16/2010 Faucett Associates 2
  3. 3. Source: Stern Review - 4/16/2010 Lem -- Jack Faucett Associates 3
  4. 4. The Contribution of the Transportation Sector to Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the United States The transportation sector (red) produces 28% of GHG emissions in the United States 4/16/2010 Lem -- Jack Faucett Associates 4
  5. 5. Comparison of Transportation % Share of GHG Emissions at City, County, and State Level Transport Sector Community Wide Inventory Transport as % Share of Community Year of Inventory Total City of Baltimore 2,254,410 9,226, 075 24.4% 2007 County of Baltimore 4,897,796 11,548,267 42.4% 2006 State of Maryland 32,500,000 99,200,000 32.8% 2005 4/16/2010 Lem -- Jack Faucett Associates 5
  6. 6. 4/16/2010 Lem -- Jack Faucett Associates 6
  7. 7. US Forecast New LDV and Total LDV Fleet Fuel Efficiency with Obama 2009 CAFE 40 35 Miles per Gallon Gasoline Equivalent (MPGe) New LDV MPG with Obama 2009 CAFÉ New LDV MPG 30 25 20 15 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 with EISA 2007 CAFE Total LDV Fleet MPG with Obama 2009 CAFE Total LDV Fleet MPG with EISA 2007 CAFE 4/16/2010 Lem -- Jack Faucett Associates 7
  8. 8. Biofuels Show Net Costs, Not Savings, as a GHG Mitigation Measure $150 $120 $97 / ton $136 / ton $72 / ton $90 $60 $30 $0 New Hampshire (lowest) Wyoming (Highest) National Average 4/16/2010 Lem -- Jack Faucett Associates 9
  9. 9. Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) Offers More Versatile Policy Tool LCFS allows for consideration of: Different Fuel Types Electric Vehicles, Hybrids. Hydrogen Fuel Cell. Natural Gas V. etc Technology/FFuueell CCoommbbiinnaattiioonnss:: Hybrid Biodiesel Plug-in Hybrid Flex-Fuel Engine Synergies with Energy Supply Strategies Cleaner Electricity Increases GHG Reduction Potential 4/16/2010 Lem -- Jack Faucett Associates 10
  10. 10. LCFS policy increasingly under consideration among the states States Oregon Washington California Multi-State Regions 11 Northeastern States and Mid- Atlantic States Minnesota Iowa New Montana Colorado New Jersey Massachusetts 10 State Midwestern Governor’s Association (MGA) Hampshire Vermont Maryland South Carolina 4/16/2010 Lem -- Jack Faucett Associates 11
  11. 11. State of New Jersey LCFS Scenarios: Plug-in Hybrids and Electric Vehicles $500 $410 / ton $400 Conventional Electricity Clean Electricity $300 $200 $100 $0 $157 / ton $86 / ton $237 / ton $102 / ton Plug-in Hybrids Electric Vehicles Biofuels 4/16/2010 Lem -- Jack Faucett Associates 12
  12. 12. 4/16/2010 Lem -- Jack Faucett Associates 14
  13. 13. State of New Jersey VMT per capita historic trend Miles per year per person VMT per Capita 9000 8500 8000 Data from NJDOT and U.S. Census 2008 data are Lem -- Jack Faucett Associates 15 7500 7000 6500 6000 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 4/16/2010
  14. 14. New Jersey VMT baseline forecast and feasibility-tested forecast The baseline forecast of VMT in the absence of new technologies and institution of certain “best practices” is based on VMT data provided by the New Jersey Department of Transportation (NJDOT). Based on historical trends, VMT are increasing aatt aann aannnnuuaall rraattee ooff 1.7% over the 2005 baseline value of 64.2 billion VMT and at that rate would reach 82.6 billion VMT in 2020. If instead VMT increases were held to 1% per year, the level would reach 74.5 billion VMT in 2020, or about 8.1 billion VMT/year less. GHG emissions associated with vehicle travel would decline accordingly. 4/16/2010 Lem -- Jack Faucett Associates 16
  15. 15. Global Comparisons Show Gradient of Per Capita Transportation Energy Use in Urban Areas 4/16/2010 Lem -- Jack Faucett Associates 17
  16. 16. 4/16/2010 Lem -- Jack Faucett Associates 18
  17. 17. “Transit/Land Use Leverage” The analysis of the potential for VMT efficiency and associated GHG emissions reduction relies upon a body of research and policy analysis that incorporates the concept of ‘transit/llaanndd uussee lleevveerraaggee’’.. Statistical studies of cities around the world have shown that those with significant transit investments show a more energy-efficient use of the transportation system that is not fully accounted for simply by 'mode shift' from private automobiles to bus and rail transit. 4/16/2010 Lem -- Jack Faucett Associates 19
  18. 18. USDOT/FTA and APTA both recognize Transit/Land Use Leverage The American Public Transportation Association (APTA) and the United States Federal Transit Administration (FTA) have both rreeccooggnniizzeedd tthhee rroollee and contribution of transit leverage and have provided information to assist transit agencies and policy analysts to consider the effects of transit leverage. 4/16/2010 Lem -- Jack Faucett Associates 20
  19. 19. Philadelphia and New York Transit Agency Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventories 4/16/2010 Lem -- Jack Faucett Associates 21
  20. 20. 4/16/2010 Lem -- Jack Faucett Associates 22
  21. 21. The “Transit Paradox”: As Transit Agency Emissions Go Up, Regional Emissions Go Down Agency Emissions Regional Agency Emissions Emissions Regional Emissions 4/16/2010 Lem -- Jack Faucett Associates 23
  22. 22. APTA GHG Standards Guideline Recommendation National default multiplier of 1.9 Used for sketch-planning applications Default considered a placeholder until ssppeecciiffiicc ssttuuddiieess undertaken Recommend future additional work that is disaggregated by size and type of region and transit system 4/16/2010 Lem -- Jack Faucett Associates 24
  23. 23. Overall Transit Agency GHG Avoidance Multiplier SEPTA Overall Transit Multiplier: 3 NY MTA: Overall Transit Multiplier: 8 Emissions Produced Emissions Displaced Net Emissions Emissions Produced Emissions Displaced Net Emissions 4/16/2010 Lem -- Jack Faucett Associates 25
  24. 24. Goods Movement Produces 27% of Transportation Sector GHG Emissions 57% 2% 2% 18% 2% 5% 10% Light Duty Vehicles 5% Passenger (other) Commercial Light Trucks Freight Trucks Freight Rail Shipping Air Other 2008 Data Source: AEO 2010 Lem -- Jack Faucett Associates 27 4/16/2010
  25. 25. A View of Port Related Greenhouse Gas Emissions Lem -- Jack 4/16/2010 Faucett Associates 28
  26. 26. Port Categories of Transportation Related GHG Emissions Ocean Going Vessels Harbor Craft Heavy- Duty Vehicles Marine Ports Cargo Handling Equipment Railroad Agency Fleets Lem -- Jack 4/16/2010 Faucett Associates 29
  27. 27. Port of New York and New Jersey 2008 Estimates of GHG Emissions Lem -- Jack 4/16/2010 Faucett Associates 30
  28. 28. Summary of Port of NY/NJ Baseline Forecast and 3 Reduction Scenarios (JFA) Lem -- Jack 4/16/2010 Faucett Associates 31
  29. 29. Potential Goods Movement GHG Reduction Estimates for Port of New York and New Jersey Three Preliminary GHG Emissions Reduction Scenarios* Total Emissions Reduction Potential Estimate (MMtCO2e in year 2030) Conservative 0.72 Moderate 2.16 Aggressive 5.75 *Estimated Using JFA PORT VISION 1.0 4/16/2010 Lem -- Jack Faucett Associates 32
  30. 30. 4/16/2010 Lem -- Jack Faucett Associates 33
  31. 31. 4/16/2010 Lem -- Jack Faucett Associates 34
  32. 32. 4/16/2010 Lem -- Jack Faucett Associates 35
  33. 33. Truck Anti-Idling: National Scenario Summary (2020 year, 2007$)* 1.7 bil 20.3 $125 $100 $75 $50 MMtCO2e $25 125 100 75 50 25 Anti-Idling Initiative *Estimated Using FREIGHT VISION 1.0 Lem -- Jack Faucett Associates gallons $ 2.2 bil -$3.2 bil -$1.0 bil $0 -$25 -$50 -$75 -$100 0 -25 -50 -75 -100 Fuel Savings Emissions Reduction Vehicle and Infra. Capital Costs Fuel Costs Net Costs Impacts Costs 4/16/2010 36
  34. 34. Truck-to-Rail Shift: National Scenario Summary (2020 year, 2007$)* 3.0 bil 39.1 MMtCO2e $125 $100 $75 $50 $25 125 100 75 50 25 Mode Shift - Trucks to Rail gallons $2.9 bil *Estimated Using FREIGHT VISION 1.0 Lem -- Jack Faucett Associates -$10.5 bil -$7.6 bil $0 -$25 -$50 -$75 -$100 0 -25 -50 -75 -100 Fuel Savings Emissions Reduction Vehicle Capital Costs Fuel Costs Net Costs Impacts Costs 4/16/2010 37
  35. 35. Thank You for your interest: Lewison Lem, Ph.D. Climate Change Practice Leader Jack Faucett Associates (JFA) Lem.JFA@gmail.com http://www.jfaucett.com/ (415) 513-8040 4/16/2010 Lem -- Jack Faucett Associates 38

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