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New FHWA VMT Forecasts Implications for Local Planning

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Andrew Mortensen, Project Manager, David Evans and Associates

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New FHWA VMT Forecasts Implications for Local Planning

  1. 1. Your title goes here Presented by New FHWA VMT Forecasts & Implications for Local Planning
  2. 2. Your title goes here Presented by Post-Apocalyptic Zombies Ate Oregon’s Post-Recession ATR Regression or…
  3. 3. Outline • US Vehicle Miles Travelled History • FHWA Revised Forecasts & National VMT Experience • Oregon VMT Experience  METRO VMT Trends – Portland Urban Area • ATR Data Use In Local Transportation Plans  2006/2010 McMinnville TSP Example  OR 99W Corridor / METRO Urban Area Context • Cross-Willamette Valley Count Examples  Historic Trends  FHWA Forecast Implications • Updating Local Transportation System Plans
  4. 4. Your title goes here Presented by US VMT History
  5. 5. US VMT History Source: FHWA (2014) | Federal Reserve Bank – Economic Data
  6. 6. US VMT Trends/Estimates Source: FHWA, Office of Highway Policy Information - Travel Monitoring
  7. 7. US VMT Trends/Estimates Source: FHWA, Office of Highway Policy Information - Travel Monitoring
  8. 8. US VMT Trends/Estimates  US DOT C&P Reports – by year reported Source: FHWA – Office of Highway Policy Information, May 2014 USVMTinTrillions US VMT Growth Peaked and Flattened Before 2008 Recession Recession
  9. 9. US VMT Estimates  Suggested Options for Study from Skeptics Source: USPIRG, 2014
  10. 10. FHWA Findings | VMT per Capita Trend Due to more than rising gas prices (current prices as exception) Source: FHWA, Office of Highway Policy Information - Travel Monitoring
  11. 11. FHWA Findings Revised VMT/Capita Trend Forecasts due to…….. Source: FHWA, Office of Highway Policy Information - Travel Monitoring  Life Cycle Effects  Aging population  Declining per-capita income  Period Movements  Economic downturns  Growth Management Policies  Social Trends  Women-in-the-workforce  Millennials  Technology
  12. 12. FHWA Findings | VMT per Capita Trend Source: FHWA, Office of Highway Policy Information , US Census Recession Recession
  13. 13. FHWA Findings | Household Income Trends Source: US Census
  14. 14. Your title goes here Presented by FHWA Revised Forecasts
  15. 15. New (December, 2014) FHWA VMT Forecasts  Baseline Forecasts of VMT Growth  Alternative(s) Compound Annual Growth Rates Vehicle Class 2012-2032 (20-year) 2012-2042 (30-year) Light-Duty Veh 0.98% 0.67% Single-Unit Truck 1.46% 1.16% Combination Truck 1.75% 1.60% Total 1.04% 0.75% Compound Annual Growth Rates Vehicle Class 2012-2032 (20-year) 2012-2042 (30-year) Pessimistic 0.94% 0.69% Baseline 1.04% 0.75% Optimistic 1.14% 0.82% Source: FHWA – Office of Highway Policy Information, May 2014
  16. 16. FHWA VMT Forecasts Source: FHWA – Office of Highway Policy Information, May 2014 Actual Optimistic Baseline Pessimistic
  17. 17. Your title goes here Presented by National VMT Trends
  18. 18. State-by-State Comparison: VMT per Capita 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 11000 12000 13000 14000 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 VMTperCapita Georgia Florida Ohio Texas Colorado California Oregon Washington Source: FHWA – Office of Highway Policy Information, May 2014
  19. 19. Annual VMT Per-Capita - 2011 Source: CoPIRG, Phinaes Baxendall, 2013
  20. 20. Percent Change in VMT Per-Capita: 2005-2011 Source: CoPIRG, Phinaes Baxendall, 2013
  21. 21. National VMT Variation – Key Factors Source: CoPIRG, Phinaes Baxendall, 2013 Additional research suggests declining VMT Per-Capita does not correspond with how badly states suffered economically in the last recession:  Millennials  87% of 19-year olds had divers license in 1983; 69% in 2011  More likely increased urban density rather than increased urbanization (state-by-state correlation)  No strong trend linking economic growth or stagnation and VMT per-capita trend  Per-capita VMT decline began prior to recession  Driving per person stagnated in the mid-2000’s while GDP climbed
  22. 22. Your title goes here Presented by State VMT Policy & Trends
  23. 23. Washington
  24. 24. Washington VMT Modeling Refinement (2014)  Prior forecast model results were not consistent with o Near-term trend in statewide traffic o National trends in traffic o Current VMT research showing flattening of VMT  Consistently over- forecasted VMT Source: WSDOT
  25. 25. Colorado
  26. 26. Colorado VMT Policy
  27. 27. Oregon ~9,400 (US Ave) ~8,400
  28. 28. Oregon VMT & Median Income History Source: ODOT, Transportation Development, US Census Recession Recession
  29. 29. Oregon VMT 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 Billions of Annual VMT Oregon State Highway VMT History Actual 2005 OTP Forecast 2014 FHWA Forecast Source: (1) VMT Data - ODOT, Transportation Development, (2) 2005 OTP Update, (3) FHWA, 2014 1 2 3
  30. 30. Oregon VMT History Source: FHWA (2014) | Federal Reserve Bank – Economic Data  Oregon is Urbanizing …..and densifying
  31. 31. Check, Back-Check, Assess & Advise Pre-Recession: 1980-2007 VMT on Oregon State Highways, By County Source: VMT Data - ODOT, Transportation Development,
  32. 32. Check, Back-Check, Assess & Advise The Slow-Down: 2000-2007 VMT on Oregon State Highways, By County Source: VMT Data - ODOT, Transportation Development,
  33. 33. Check, Back-Check, Assess & Advise Recession: 2008-2009 VMT on Oregon State Highways, By County Source: VMT Data - ODOT, Transportation Development,
  34. 34. Check, Back-Check, Assess & Advise Post Recession: 2009-2013 VMT on Oregon State Highways, By County Source: VMT Data - ODOT, Transportation Development,
  35. 35. Check, Back-Check, Assess & Advise To Date: 1980-2013 VMT on Oregon State Highways, By County Source: VMT Data - ODOT, Transportation Development,
  36. 36. METRO VMT Trends/Forecasts Source: METRO 11.5 13.5 15.5 17.5 19.5 21.5 23.5 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 DailyVehicleMilesofTravelperCapita Calculation of DVMT/ Person: The daily travel and population figures from Portland, OR are gathered for the FHWA by the State's HPMS programs . The total travel is divided by the total population to equal the DVMT per person. For 2013: Area Travel (Miles) Population DVMT/ Person Portland 28,574,727 1,540,000 = 18.56 U.S. National Average Portland, 3-County Urban Area
  37. 37. Your title goes here Presented by ATR Data Use in Local Transportation Plans
  38. 38. ATR Data Use in Future Traffic Forecasts  Establish 20-Year Planning Horizon Traffic Estimates  Estimate External Station, 20-Year Traffic Estimates Urban Area / Travel Demand Model
  39. 39. ATR Data Use in Transportation Planning Traffic Forecast Needs Assessment CIP Funding Plan / $$ Search Street Bond SDC Other Gas Tax
  40. 40. ODOT Region 2 | 2006 McMinnville TSP Est Source: McMinnville TSP Analysis (2006), ODOT Website, Transportation Development Newberg Sherwood Wilsonville Tualatin Tigard
  41. 41. ODOT Region 2 | 2006 McMinnville TSP Est Source: McMinnville TSP Analysis (2006), ODOT Website, Transportation Development Newberg Sherwood Wilsonville Tualatin Tigard
  42. 42. PDX Cordon ADT History Source: ODOT Website, Transportation Development Newberg McMinnville Rainier Forest Grove Woodburn Canby Sandy
  43. 43. PDX City Populations: Southwest Source: Portland State University, Population Research Center Average Annual Population Increase Pre-Recession (1990 – 2008) Post-Recession (2009 – 2014) Exurban Suburban UGB
  44. 44. Your title goes here Presented by Cross-Willamette Valley Count Examples Check, Back-check & Assess
  45. 45. Comparing North Willamette Valley ATR Trends OR 99W - Newberg Center / Marion St. Bridges OR 18 - Valley Jct.
  46. 46. History: 1977-2013 Source: ODOT website, Transportation Development,
  47. 47. 1977-2007 AAGR Source: ODOT website, Transportation Development,
  48. 48. 1987-2007 AAGR Source: ODOT website, Transportation Development,
  49. 49. 1997-2007 AAGR Source: ODOT website, Transportation Development,
  50. 50. 1993-2013 AAGR Source: ODOT website, Transportation Development,
  51. 51. 2000-2013 AAGR Source: ODOT website, Transportation Development,
  52. 52. FHWA Forecast: 1993-2013 Source: ODOT website, Transportation Development,
  53. 53. Compare: 1987-2007 Source: ODOT website, Transportation Development,
  54. 54. 1987-2007 Trend Source: ODOT website, Transportation Development,
  55. 55. 1993-2013 Source: ODOT website, Transportation Development,
  56. 56. 1993-2013 Trend Source: ODOT website, Transportation Development,
  57. 57. 1993-2013 Trend & FHWA Forecast Source: ODOT website, Transportation Development,
  58. 58. Compare Trends Source: ODOT website, Transportation Development,
  59. 59. Your title goes here Presented by Updating Local TSPs
  60. 60. McMinnville TSP Updating: IAMP & Travel Model Growth Assumptions Update OR 99W/18 IAMP Update McMinnville Travel Demand Model - External Station Growth Assumptions
  61. 61. Updating Hwy 18/99W IAMP -0.61% Assumes Full Development
  62. 62. Findings  Oregon urbanization continuing to affect regional and localized travel patterns  Six D’s, mainly density & high quality transit in urban areas  Economic and demographic shifts  Most local, recent traffic data trends roughly align with FHWA’s VMT forecast  Continue examination of annual counts and local land use context  Revise, update or replace outdated trends and model data, particularly in non-MPO areas
  63. 63. Your title goes here Presented by Questions

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