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Exploring the Transportation and Land Use Impacts of E-Commerce

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Amanda Howell, Project Manager, Urbanism Next, University of Oregon

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Exploring the Transportation and Land Use Impacts of E-Commerce

  1. 1. Exploring the transportation and land use Impacts of e-commerce December 6, 2019 | TREC FRIDAY TRANSPORTATION SEMINAR Amanda Howell Urbanism Next Center Project Manager ahowell3@uoregon.edu
  2. 2. 3 • How Goods Moved Traditionally • Push for Automated Trucking • Growth of E-Commerce • Last-Mile Delivery • Automation and the Last Mile • Land Use and Transportation Impacts • Strategies for Managing Impacts • Research Underway and Needed • Q&A Overview
  3. 3. 4 How Goods Have Moved Traditionally
  4. 4. 5 From First to Last Mile
  5. 5. 6 From Production to Port • 800 twenty-foot equivalent unit (TEU) pre-1970 • 20,000+ TEU today (Colliers, 2015) • Total shipments grew by 290% between 2000-2013 (Colliers, 2015)
  6. 6. 7 From Port to Warehouse / Distribution Center Sources: OregonLive; Wikipedia
  7. 7. 8 From Port to Warehouse / Distribution Center Sources: DAT; Logistics Plus; Wikipedia
  8. 8. 9 From DC/Warehouse to Retail Location/Consumer Sources: HybridCars; Tokyo Banana; FedEx
  9. 9. 10 What’s changing?
  10. 10. 11 Push for Automated Trucking American Trucking Association said turnover rate at large fleets averaged 89% in 2018
  11. 11. 12 Major Developments: 2016-2018 OCT 2016
  12. 12. 13 Major Developments: 2016-2018 OCT 2016 JUL 2017
  13. 13. 14 Major Developments: 2016-2018 OCT 2016 JUL 2017 NOV 2017
  14. 14. 15 Major Developments: 2016-2018 OCT 2016 JUL 2017 NOV 2017 JUL 2018
  15. 15. 16 Major Developments: 2019 JAN2019
  16. 16. 17 Major Developments: 2019 FEB 2019JAN2019
  17. 17. 18 Major Developments: 2019 FEB 2019JAN2019 MAY 2019
  18. 18. 19 Major Developments: 2019 JUN2019
  19. 19. 20 Major Developments: 2019 JUN2019JUN2019
  20. 20. 21 Major Developments: 2019 JUN2019JUN2019 JUN2019
  21. 21. 22 Major Developments: 2019 JUN2019JUN2019 AUG 2019JUN2019
  22. 22. 23 Platooning • Development in fits and spurts • Lots of testing in Germany, Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg
  23. 23. 24 Platooning • Development in fits and spurts • Lots of testing in Germany, Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg • Contingent on technology and legislation
  24. 24. 25 Evolution of Automated Trucking
  25. 25. 26 What else is changing?
  26. 26. 27 Growth of E-Commerce and Last Mile Delivery
  27. 27. Rise of E-Commerce
  28. 28. 29 E-Commerce Growth Worldwide Retail e-commerce sales worldwide projected to amount to 3.5 trillion USD in 2019!
  29. 29. 30 What Does That Mean for Shipping?
  30. 30. 31 Returns Play a Role
  31. 31. 32 Fast and Free Shipping Amazon added 314,992 square miles of same-day and/or one-day coverage in 2018 alone
  32. 32. 33 Push for Even Faster Delivery
  33. 33. 34 Push for Even Faster Delivery
  34. 34. 35 Push for Even Faster Delivery
  35. 35. 36 Expansion of Options to Meet Increased Delivery Volumes
  36. 36. 37 Delivery to Parcel Lockers
  37. 37. 38 Delivery Direct to Car Trunks Sources: Amazon, Audi
  38. 38. 39 Delivery Direct Into Home Sources: Amazon, The Guardian
  39. 39. 40 Businesses Finding New Ways to Cover Last Mile/Final 50 Feet
  40. 40. 41 E-Cargo Bikes and Mopeds Sources: UPS, DHL, Business Insider
  41. 41. 42 Traditional Carriers Still Delivering…But Amazon Is Growing ?
  42. 42. 43 Delivery Contractors and Service Partners Sources: NYTimes (Taylor Glascock for ProPrublica; TechCrunch
  43. 43. 44 Courier Network Services Source: Seattle Times (David Paul Morris for Bloomberg)
  44. 44. 45 Crowdsourced Delivery
  45. 45. Courier Network Services Extends to Meal Delivery Source: Online Food Delivery Report 2019, Statista
  46. 46. 47 Meal Delivery Is Multi-Modal Santiago, Chile San Francisco, CA
  47. 47. 48 Courier Network Services Expected to Grow Source: Online Food Delivery Report 2019, Statista
  48. 48. 49 Automated Last-Mile Delivery
  49. 49. 50 Autonomous Delivery Robots
  50. 50. 51 Autonomous Delivery Vehicles Boxbot REV-1 Kar-go
  51. 51. 52 Solving the Final 50 Feet?
  52. 52. 53 Drone Delivery
  53. 53. 54 Exploring the impacts of all these changes…
  54. 54. 55 Land Use and Transportation Implications
  55. 55. 56 Land use…
  56. 56. 57 Demand for Warehousing/Industrial Is Up Source: Avison Young Spring 2019 Global Industrial Market Report
  57. 57. 58 Amazon Delivery Facilities Across the U.S.
  58. 58. 59 Size of Average New Warehouse Developments Increasing
  59. 59. 60 Building Out… Source: Insider Media
  60. 60. 61 And Up! (Depending on Locale) Source: WSJ
  61. 61. 62 Retail Footprint Is Changing (U.S.) Source: Nielsen Insights
  62. 62. April 2019 Brick-and-Mortar Closures December 4, 2019
  63. 63. 64 Growth in Experiential Retail Demand for Retail Land vs. Experiential Retail
  64. 64. 65 Big Box vs. Experiential Retail Potential for “Quality Sort”: Evidence ?????
  65. 65. 66 Transportation…
  66. 66. 67 Congestion Is Increasing on Highways Sources: Met; LA Times “The main entryway for packages into New York City, leading to the George Washington Bridge from New Jersey, has become the most congested interchange in the country. Trucks heading toward the bridge travel at 23 miles per hour, down from 30 m.p.h. five years ago.” Haag & Hu, NY Times, Oct. 27. 2019
  67. 67. 68 And on Streets! Sources: TTNews
  68. 68. 69 No Home at the Curb for Some
  69. 69. 70 Which Contributes to… • Increasing competition for the curb • Double parking • Impeding flow of traffic
  70. 70. 71 Which Contributes to… • Increasing competition for the curb • Double parking • Impeding flow of traffic • Blocked bike lanes • Safety issues!
  71. 71. 72 And Increasing Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) • Average length-of-haul has decreased by 296 miles (37%) since 2000 • However… • Truck VMT in urban areas grew by 17.7% between 2011- 2016 • Fell by 2.2.% in rural areas during the same time period American Transportation Research Institute, Feb. 2019
  72. 72. 73 And Increasing Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) • Average length-of-haul has decreased by 296 miles (37%) since 2000 • However… • Truck VMT in urban areas grew by 17.7% between 2011- 2016 • Fell by 2.2.% in rural areas during the same time period • E-commerce has increased number of short-haul and last-mile trips American Transportation Research Institute, Feb. 2019
  73. 73. 74 How are cities starting to address these challenges?
  74. 74. 75 Off-Peak Deliveries, Common Carrier Lockers Sources: NYC DOT, University of Washington
  75. 75. 76 Curb Reservation System • Washington, D.C. piloted curb reservations using curbFlow • Removed curb parking at 9 locations and turned into reserved PUDO zones • Double parking decreased by 64% • Commercial drivers made more than 15,000 space reservations • On-demand deliveries were most frequent users of PUDO zones Source: curbFlow DDOT, Nov. 2019
  76. 76. 77 E-Cargo Bike Delivery Sources: PSU, Amazon, Sainsbury’s
  77. 77. 78 Cities need more information though
  78. 78. 79 • Research effort led by Prof. Kelly Clifton to assess frequency and types of freight being delivered, and by what mode(s) • Data collected at 12 market-rate MF sites from 7am-9pm for one day this fall • Initial results indicate that 75% of deliveries happen off-peak • Traditional trip generation methods not capturing these trips Study: Freight Trip Generation at Multifamily Housing in PDX
  79. 79. 80 More research is needed to understand: • Specific parking locations Next Steps: We Need to Learn More!
  80. 80. 81 More research is needed to understand: • Specific parking locations • Dwell times Next Steps: We Need to Learn More!
  81. 81. 82 More research is needed to understand: • Specific parking locations • Dwell times • Trip substitutions vs. trip complements • And more! Next Steps: We Need to Learn More!
  82. 82. Thank you! Questions? December 6, 2019 | TREC FRIDAY TRANSPORTATION SEMINAR Amanda Howell Urbanism Next Center Project Manager ahowell3@uoregon.edu

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