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Exploring the Determinants of Vulnerable Road Users’ Crash Severity in State Roads

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Alvaro Caviedes, Portland State University

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Exploring the Determinants of Vulnerable Road Users’ Crash Severity in State Roads

  1. 1. DETERMINANTS OF VULNERABLE ROAD USERS’ CRASH SEVERITY IN STATE ROADS Álvaro Caviedes Miguel Figliozzi January 19th
  2. 2. TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. BACKGROUND 2. PROBLEM STATEMENT 3. DATA AND METHODS 4. RESULTS 5. CONCLUSIONS
  3. 3. BACKGROUND 1. Department of Transportation’s (DOT) interest in increasing non-motorized transportation
  4. 4. BACKGROUND 1. Focus on driver safety 2. Crash frequency vs crash severity
  5. 5. BACKGROUND 1. Urban environments 2. Risk factors: • Location, • Environmental, • Crash, • Road, • Demographic, and • Traffic characteristics.
  6. 6. PROBLEM STATEMENT Explore risk factors of crash severity for pedestrians and bicyclists in the Oregon Highway Network System
  7. 7. DATA AND METHODS 1. Oregon statewide crash database (2007-2014) 2. ODOT’s TransGIS database 3. Neighborhood concepts (Currans et al. 2015)
  8. 8. INJURY SEVERITY LEVELS A (INCAPACITATED)- ALMOST KILLED K (FATAL) - KILLED B (VISIBLE INJURY) – BRUISE C – COMPLAIN OF PAIN 0 – ONLY PROPERTY DAMAGE
  9. 9. CRASHES IN THE OREGON HIGHWAY STATE NETWORK VARIABLE PEDESTRIAN CRASHES IN OREGON ONLY STATE HIGHWAYS BICYCLIST CRASHES IN OREGON ONLY STATE HIGHWAYS TOTAL CRASHES 6,162 1,840 (30%) 7,147 1,584 (22%) CRASHES AT INTERSECTIONS 3,629 1,088 4,702 1,045 CRASHES AT SEGMENTS 1,822 561 864 169 OTHERS 711 191 1481 370
  10. 10. DESCRIPTIVE ANALYSIS 1. Location characteristics 2. Environmental conditions 3. Crash characteristics 4. Traffic characteristics 5. Road characteristics
  11. 11. LOCATIONCHARACTERISTICS DESCRIPTIVEANALYSIS LOCATION LAND USE PEDESTRIANBICYCLIST 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Intersection Segment K A 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Intersection Segment K A 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Urban Suburban Rural K A 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Urban Suburban Rural K A (n=496) (n=1039) (n=133) (n=867) (n=602) (n=724) (n=209) (n=372) (n=487) (n=141)
  12. 12. ENVIRONMENTALCONDITIONS DESCRIPTIVEANALYSIS LIGHT CONDITIONS WEATHER PEDESTRIANBICYCLIST 0% 10% 20% 30% Daylight Dark + streetlight Dark Twilight K A 0% 10% 20% 30% Daylight Dark + streetlight Dark Twilight K A 0% 10% 20% 30% Clear day Bad conditions K A 0% 10% 20% 30% Clear day Bad conditions K A (n=775) (n=410) (n=228) (n=122) (n=786) (n=113) (n=42) (n=59) (n=856) (n=679) (n=749) (n=251)
  13. 13. CRASHCHARACTERISTICS DESCRIPTIVEANALYSIS ALCOHOL INTOXICATION USER LOCATION PEDESTRIANBICYCLIST 0% 10% 20% 30% No alcohol Yes alcohol K A 0% 10% 20% 30% No alcohol Yes alcohol K A 0% 10% 20% 30% Crosswalk Roadway Midblock K A 0% 10% 20% 30% Crosswalk Roadway Bike lane K A (n=1292) (n=243) (n=961) (n=39) (n=1042) (n=452) (n=41) (n=423) (n=541) (n=36)
  14. 14. CRASHCHARACTERISTICS DESCRIPTIVEANALYSIS VEHICLE TYPE VEHICLE MOVEMENT PEDESTRIANBICYCLIST 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Passenger car Heavy vehicle K A 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Passenger car Heavy vehicle K A 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Straight Turning K A 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Straight Turning K A (n=1496) (n=39) (n=989) (n=11) (n=893) (n=642) (n=393) (n=607)
  15. 15. TRAFFICCONDITIONS DESCRIPTIVEANALYSIS AADT (ONLY TRUCKS) PEDESTRIAN BICYCLIST 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% <1.5k 1.5k-5k 5k-7.5k >7.5k K A 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% <1.5k 1.5k-5k 5k-7.5k >7.5k K A (n=1107) (n=418) (n=9) (n=1) (n=716) (n=271) (n=8) (n=5)
  16. 16. ROADCHARACTERISTICS DESCRIPTIVEANALYSIS ROAD SURFACEPOSTED SPEED LIMIT PEDESTRIANBICYCLIST 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% <20 20-35 35-50 50-65 >65 K A 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% <20 20-35 35-50 50-65 >65 K A 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Dry Wet K A 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Dry Wet K A (n=55) (n=1032) (n=316) (n=131) (n=1) (n=26) (n=616) (n=239) (n=114) (n=5) (n=1075) (n=460) (n=862) (n=138)
  17. 17. ROAD CHARACTERISTICS –EXPOSURE ANALYSIS DESCRIPTIVE ANALYSIS - Crash risk under various road characteristics - Likelihood of crash involvement - Depends on exposure - Risk ratio ~ concentration of crashes (number of lanes, road width, and road classification) - Exposure controlled by estimating the proportion of VMT Example: 𝑅𝑖𝑠𝑘 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜 = +,-.,/012, 34 .-156,5 7/ -3185 9706 : ;1/, +,-.,/012, 34 <=> 7/ -3185 9706 : ;1/,
  18. 18. EXPOSUREANALYSIS-ROADCHARAC. DESCRIPTIVEANALYSIS 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Local Collector Arterial 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Local Collector Arterial 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 - 20 20 - 30 30 - 40 40 - 50 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 - 20 20 - 30 30 - 40 40 - 50 NUMBER OF LANES ROAD WIDTH ROAD CLASSIFICATION RISKRATIORISKRATIO RISKRATIORISKRATIO RISKRATIORISKRATIO K A B C O 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 Local Collector Arterial Local Collector Arterial PEDESTRIANBICYCLIST 10 10 10 101010 00 0 000
  19. 19. RESULTS 1. METHODOLOGY 2. INDIVIDUAL MODEL 3. POOLED MODELS 4. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
  20. 20. POOLED MODELS
  21. 21. POOLED MODELS
  22. 22. POOLED MODELS
  23. 23. POOLED MODELS Other significant variables: - Land use - Segment vs Inters. - Time of the day
  24. 24. POOLED MODELS Only road and traffic characteristics
  25. 25. POOLED MODELS Only road and traffic characteristics
  26. 26. POOLED MODELS Only road and traffic characteristics
  27. 27. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS PEDESTRIAN MODEL CRASH SEVERITY ~ Light conditions + Road classification + Posted speed limit + Pedestrian location+ AADT(Only truck)
  28. 28. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS PEDESTRIAN MODEL CRASH SEVERITY ~ BASELINE SCENARIO Prob. (K+A)=7.4% Light conditions (DAYLIGHT) + Road classification (LOCAL STREET) + Posted speed limit (<50 MPH) + Pedestrian location (CROSSWALK) + AADT(Only truck) (<700)
  29. 29. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS PEDESTRIAN MODEL CRASH SEVERITY ~ Light conditions (DARKNESS) + Road classification (LOCAL STREET) + Posted speed limit (<50 MPH) + Pedestrian location (CROSSWALK) + AADT(Only truck) (<700) Prob. (K+A)=7.4% Prob. (K+A)=16.1% Change = +8.6% BAD LIGHTING SCENARIO VS BASELINE SCENARIO
  30. 30. %CHANGE PEDESTRIAN MODEL SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS 59% 9% 7% 7% 4% 3% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% K+A
  31. 31. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS BICYCLIST MODEL CRASH SEVERITY ~ Bicyclist location+ AADT %CHANGE 13% 8% 3% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Worst case scenario Location: Segment AADT: >10.000 K+A
  32. 32. CONCLUSIONS 1. TAKEAWAYS - Age - Alcohol intoxication - Vehicle size - Vehicle movement - Posted speed limit - Light conditions - Road classification - Road surface - Location of the user - Land use and AADT
  33. 33. CONCLUSIONS 2. MITIGATION - Educational campaigns - Training courses - More strict enforcement - Protection vulnerable users
  34. 34. CONCLUSIONS 3. LIMITATIONS and FUTURE RESEARCH - Underreporting - Speed - Bike facilities - Special pedestrian signals
  35. 35. QUESTIONS? ACKNOWLEDMENTS DISSERTATION COMMITTEE: - Miguel Figliozzi - Chris Monsere - Avinash Unnikrishnan TTP LAB Transportation engineering and planning Master students

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