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Clouds, Crowds, and Traffic: What 10 emerging Megatrends mean for the future of transportation

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Ted Trepanier, INRIX, Inc.

Ten new megatrends will be presented with a discussion on the resulting shifts on the transportation industry. Details will include a look on broken trends and the new challenges introduced for transportation planning. Thoughts will also be presented introducing a pivot to the current model being pursued by the Connected Vehicle program. Finally, planners will be challenged to consider a new question for the future of our connected communities, you have to come to hear it.

Published in: Engineering
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Clouds, Crowds, and Traffic: What 10 emerging Megatrends mean for the future of transportation

  1. 1. 1 Confidential & proprietary © 2013. Confidential & proprietary Clouds, Crowds & Traffic Ten Emerging Megatrends Impacting the Future of Transportation Ted Trepanier
  2. 2. 2 Confidential & proprietary Market leader in North America and Europe Crowd- sourcing technology pioneer 175 million consumers reached daily 1.8 million miles of road and 32 countries 200+ blue-chip customers 100 million GPS-enabled vehicles & devices INRIX Powers the World's Largest Traffic Intelligence Network
  3. 3. 3 Confidential & proprietary TEN MEGATRENDS Reshaping Mobility
  4. 4. 4 Confidential & proprietary GROWTH OF URBANIZATION Population of urban areas UN Department of Economics & Social Affairs (ESA), 2011 Now 2050
  5. 5. 5 Confidential & proprietary GROWTH OF URBANIZATION UN Department of Economics & Social Affairs (ESA), 2011 2025 2011 1980
  6. 6. 6 Confidential & proprietary GROWTH OF URBANIZATION Percentage of Chinese residents living in urban centers China National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), 2013 2025 70% Now 50%
  7. 7. 7 Confidential & proprietary INRIX Scorecard、2012 COST OF CONGESTION Annual hours wasted per driver 59 Los Angeles 65 Stuttgart 63 Paris
  8. 8. 8 Confidential & proprietary TTI; Centre for Economics and Business Research, 2012 COST OF CONGESTION Economic impact in billions $121 United States €7.8 Germany €5.6 France
  9. 9. 9 Confidential & proprietary POLLUTION % of carbon emissions from vehicles OECD, 2011 23%
  10. 10. 10 Confidential & proprietary POLLUTION World CO2 emissions U.S. EIA, 2011 - 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 MILLION METRIC TONS United States China Europe (OECD) India
  11. 11. 11 Confidential & proprietary ABI Research (ABI), 2012 CONNECTED CARS Now 2017 11% 60%
  12. 12. 12 Confidential & proprietary URBAN MOBILITY Rise of on-demand transportation
  13. 13. 13 Confidential & proprietary ! ! D G D V G G N N C C C C C V G N D Road sensor Traffic camera S T V Commercial Vehicle GPS Probe Consumer Vehicle GPS Probe GPS-Enabled Smartphone Probe Cellular Network Probe ! ! Driver Generated Report Accident Construction Event S T S S T Incidents Flow Scotia Bank, 2011 THE “CROWD” 1.3 billion drivers by 2017
  14. 14. 14 Confidential & proprietary ! Road sensor Traffic camera Driver Generated Report Accident Construction Event Incidents INRIX Traffic Intelligence Network North America, Spring 2010 Examples of 15-Minute Real-Time Snapshots
  15. 15. 15 Confidential & proprietary ! Road sensor Traffic camera Driver Generated Report Accident Construction Event Incidents INRIX Traffic Intelligence Network North America, Spring 2013 Examples of 15-Minute Real-Time Snapshots
  16. 16. 16 Confidential & proprietary ! ! Road sensor Traffic camera Driver Generated Report Accident Construction Event Incidents INRIX Traffic Intelligence Network Europe, Fall 2010 Examples of 15-Minute Real-Time Snapshots
  17. 17. 17 Confidential & proprietary ! ! Road sensor Traffic camera Driver Generated Report Accident Construction Event Incidents INRIX Traffic Intelligence Network Europe, Spring 2013 Examples of 15-Minute Real-Time Snapshots
  18. 18. 18 Confidential & proprietary ACTIVE ROAD NETWORK MANAGEMENT Real-time data and analytics for millions of miles
  19. 19. 19 Confidential & proprietary FUTURE OF TRANSPORTATION Big Data and ITS technologies will drive improved urban mobility •Active/adaptive traffic management •Dynamic traffic signal timing •Variable HOT lanes •Congestion based tolling •Multi-modal travel •Smart parking meters and predictive availability •Multi-mode management •Car sharing Integrated corridor management Network-wide analysis System performance monitoring
  20. 20. 20 Confidential & proprietary 2015 2020 25 billion 50 billion CONNECTED DEVICES Cisco IBSG, 2011
  21. 21. 21 Confidential & proprietary CONNECTED DEVICES Penetration of Internet usage by country As of 6/30/2012 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 China United States India Japan Brazil Russia Germany Indonesia United Kingdom France MILLIONS OF PEOPLE Total population Internet users 40% 78% 11% 80% 46% 48% 83% 22% 84% 80% Internetworldstats.com 6/30/2012
  22. 22. 22 Confidential & proprietary CONNECTED DEVICES 1.5 billion smartphones globally 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 China United States Japan Brazil India United Kingdom Korea Indonesia France Germany MILLIONS OF PEOPLE Smartphone subscribers Informa, 2013
  23. 23. 23 Confidential & proprietary INRIX Concept, 2013 PERSONALIZATION Navigating your world
  24. 24. 24 Confidential & proprietary Would it be quicker to park and take the train? Is the roadway starting to ice up? How long will it take to get to home or work? Where is the cheapest fuel along my route? What’s the best way to avoid this traffic? Where is the closest available parking? Where can I charge my electric vehicle? How efficiently do I drive compared to others in my city?
  25. 25. 25 Confidential & proprietary IN-CAR INFOTAINMENT Adoption by 2019 68% Strategy Analytics、2012
  26. 26. 26 Confidential & proprietary THE CONNECTED CAR A B
  27. 27. 27 Confidential & proprietary TRAFFIC A B Traffic !
  28. 28. 28 Confidential & proprietary DAILY NAVIGATION A B Traffic Daily navigation
  29. 29. 29 Confidential & proprietary MULTIMODAL ROUTING A B Traffic Daily navigation Multimodal routing
  30. 30. 30 Confidential & proprietary ROAD WEATHER A B Traffic Daily navigation Road weather Multimodal routing
  31. 31. 31 Confidential & proprietary LOCAL SEARCH A B Traffic Daily navigation Road weather Multimodal routing Local search
  32. 32. 32 Confidential & proprietary FUEL PRICES A B Traffic Daily navigation Road weather Fuel prices Multimodal routing Local search
  33. 33. 33 Confidential & proprietary PARKING AVAILABILITY A Traffic Daily navigation Multimodal routing Road weather Local search Fuel prices Parking availability P B P
  34. 34. 34 Confidential & proprietary DRIVING FORWARD Ten Megatrends The “Crowd” Active Road Network Connected Devices Personalization In-car Infotainment Growth of Urbanization Cost of Congestion Pollution Connected Cars Urban Mobility
  35. 35. 36 Confidential & proprietary Image: Continental Automotive, 2013 AUTONOMOUS DRIVING “We should be able to do 90% of miles driven within 3 years.” – Elon Musk, Tesla
  36. 36. 38 Confidential & proprietary Twisted Trends U.S. EIA, 2011 •Woman in the Workforce •The Baby Boom •Household Income •Suburbanization •Automobile Ownership •Congestion •Generational Preferences
  37. 37. 39 Confidential & proprietary The “Planners Challenge” China National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), 2013 It is well understood – We cannot build ourselves out of congestion.
  38. 38. 40 Confidential & proprietary The “Planners Challenge” China National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), 2013 It’s also been long assumed that VMT will continue to grow. Then – the trend twisted
  39. 39. 41 Confidential & proprietary The “Planners Challenge” China National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), 2013 It is well understood – Maximum Freeway Capacity is near 2000 vphpl Smart Cars will increase this to??? 3000 3500 4000 More…
  40. 40. 42 Confidential & proprietary The “Planners Challenge” China National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), 2013 Consider – decreasing demand – added capacity
  41. 41. 43 Confidential & proprietary The “Planners Challenge” China National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), 2013 What does this mean to the assumption? “We cannot build ourselves out of congestion”
  42. 42. 44 Confidential & proprietary The “Planners Challenge” China National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), 2013 Instead of planning for the Next Transportation Package…
  43. 43. 45 Confidential & proprietary The “Planners Challenge” China National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), 2013 Let’s think about planning for - The Last Transportation Package
  44. 44. 46 Confidential & proprietary Multnomah County Bottlenecks
  45. 45. 47 Confidential & proprietary Thank You Ted Trepanier ted@inrix.com www.inrix.com

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