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Bicycles & Business Success - A San Francisco Examination

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Joseph Poirier, Nelson\Nygaard

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Bicycles & Business Success - A San Francisco Examination

  1. 1. Bicycles & Business: A San Francisco Examination in Three Case Studies Presented by: Joseph Poirier February 2018
  2. 2. Presentation Outline ■ Goals ■ Problem statement ■ Literature review ■ Data sources ■ Methodology ■ Analysis ■ Discussion and implications ■ Shortcomings ■ Questions, comments, and critiques NelsonNygaard Consulting Associates, Inc. 2
  3. 3. Goals ■Improve methodology ■Improve data accessibility ■Make this analysis: –Easy to perform –Easy to understand ■Scalable and replicable NelsonNygaard Consulting Associates, Inc. 3
  4. 4. Problem Statement ■ Bicycle lane implementations are controversial ■ Little research on economic impact of bicycles NelsonNygaard Consulting Associates, Inc. 4
  5. 5. Literature Review ■ Research is primarily survey-based ■ Only four-five reports using sales data – Sales tax (may under-report cash sales) – Credit card (may capture only some spending) ■ Only two-three reports with defensible methodology NelsonNygaard Consulting Associates, Inc. 5 Municipal DOT Reports University Report
  6. 6. Data Sources ■ National Establishment Time-Series (NETS) data – Proprietary – Employment, sales, NAICS code, location data – Relatively accurate ■ Google Earth Pro NelsonNygaard Consulting Associates, Inc. 6
  7. 7. Methodology ■ Identify case study areas – Bicycle lane intervention – Temporal requirements (1992-2011) – Establishment density ■ Keep only permanent establishments ■ Drop outliers – More than $50,000,000 annual revenue – Zero or one employees NelsonNygaard Consulting Associates, Inc. 7
  8. 8. Methodology NelsonNygaard Consulting Associates, Inc. 8 Columbus Avenue Polk StreetValencia Street 1,368 Establishments 857 Establishments1,179 Establishments
  9. 9. Methodology ■ Subset Businesses – Abutting and non-abutting – All establishments and local-serving establishments NelsonNygaard Consulting Associates, Inc. 9
  10. 10. Methodology ■ Compare abutting establishments to non-abutting establishments on two performance metrics – Sales per establishment – Sales per employee – Controlled for inflation NelsonNygaard Consulting Associates, Inc. 10
  11. 11. Analysis – Valencia Street NelsonNygaard Consulting Associates, Inc. 11 Average Annual Sales per Employee, All Establishments Average Annual Sales per Establishment, All Establishments Average Annual Sales per Employee, Local-Serving Ests. Average Annual Sales per Establishment, Local-Serving Ests.
  12. 12. Analysis – Valencia Street NelsonNygaard Consulting Associates, Inc. 12 Change Over Time Statistics, All Establishments Change Over Time Statistics, Locally-Serving Establishments
  13. 13. Analysis – All Study Areas NelsonNygaard Consulting Associates, Inc. 13 ■ One strong negative result ■ Two strong positive results Abutting Local-Serving Establishment Performance Over Five-Year Period vs. Non-Abutting Local-Serving Establishments Abutting All Establishment Performance Over Five-Year Period vs. Non- Abutting All Establishments
  14. 14. Discussion ■ In all results, only one strong negative outcome ■ The greatest magnitude (+) results for local- serving establishments ■ Discrepancy between ‘all establishment’ and ‘local-serving establishment’ performance means: – Not all establishments experience bicycle lane interventions the same way – Bicycle lanes are likely not ‘good for all business’ NelsonNygaard Consulting Associates, Inc. 14
  15. 15. Implications ■ Planners should understand mix of business ■ Bicycle routes through areas with local- serving businesses? ■ More honest advocacy NelsonNygaard Consulting Associates, Inc. 15
  16. 16. Shortcomings ■Self-selection bias ■Cyclist travel pattern assumptions ■NETS data error ■Survival bias ■No parking data NelsonNygaard Consulting Associates, Inc. 16
  17. 17. Next Steps ■How can we improve? ■Data sources available ■Analyses accessible to the public NelsonNygaard Consulting Associates, Inc. 17
  18. 18. NELSONNYGAARD CONSULTING ASSOCIATES © 2018 Joseph Poirier Seattle, WA jpoirier@nelsonnygaard.com Thank You!

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