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17TCS Urbanism Next: Secondary Effects of Autonomous Vehicles on Urban Development

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Moderator: Nico Larco, University of Oregon Speakers: Ben Clark, University of Oregon; Ingrid Fish, City of Portland Bureau of Planning and Sustainability; Peter Hurley, PBOT; Eric Hesse, TriMet; Arthur Nelson, University of Arizona

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17TCS Urbanism Next: Secondary Effects of Autonomous Vehicles on Urban Development

  1. 1. Nico Larco, AIA Associate Professor, Dept. of Architecture Co-Founder and Co-Director, Sustainable Cities Initiative University of Oregon nlarco@uoregon.edu Urbanism Next
  2. 2. © 2017 - SCI, University of Oregon Urbanism Next
  3. 3. © 2017 - SCI, University of Oregon Urbanism Next – (when?) - Sept. 2016 – AV Ridesourcing (Pittsburgh, Singapore) - Nov. 2016 – Black Friday - Online > In Store - June 2017 – 10 Top Car Manufacturers Say AVs by 2021
  4. 4. © 2017 - SCI, University of Oregon
  5. 5. © 2017 - SCI, University of Oregon Parameters / Inputs - Role of Transit (and Ridesourcing)
  6. 6. © 2017 - SCI, University of Oregon Parameters / Inputs - Role of Transit (and Ridesourcing) - Fleets vs. Individual Ownership
  7. 7. © 2017 - SCI, University of Oregon Parameters / Inputs - Role of Transit (and Ridesourcing) - Fleets vs. Individual Ownership - Cost of AV’s
  8. 8. © 2017 - SCI, University of Oregon Parameters / Inputs - Role of Transit (and Ridesourcing) - Fleets vs. Individual Ownership - Cost of AV’s - General Desire for Proximity / Open Space NAR 2016 Preferred Communities – NAR National Survey
  9. 9. © 2017 - SCI, University of Oregon 5 Design / Development Effects - Land Use - Space / Physical Design - Density / Proximity - Dispersion / Sprawl - Vitality / Activity
  10. 10. © 2017 - SCI, University of Oregon Land Use - Parking Re-Use / Elimination - Fleet Storage - Where Do We Live?
  11. 11. © 2017 - SCI, University of Oregon Space / Physical Design - Parking Related - Lots/Structures Re-Used, No Longer Gaps - Increase in Bldg Density/Height (Reduced Parking Req.) - Increase in Density as Lots Filled (Urban / Suburban)
  12. 12. © 2017 - SCI, University of Oregon Space / Physical Design - Street Design - Reduction/Elimination of On-Street Parking - Drop-Off Zones - Reduced or Increased Lanes? (Width and Number) - Separation of Modes? Increased AV Speeds?
  13. 13. © 2017 - SCI, University of Oregon Density / Proximity - Increase? - Urban Centers (continuation of trend) - Suburban Centers (no more parking…) - End of TOD’s?
  14. 14. © 2017 - SCI, University of Oregon Dispersion / Sprawl - Reduced ‘Friction’ of Travel Cost - Appetite for Further Commute - What Will Limit Urban Dispersion? Zhang – Georgia Tech
  15. 15. © 2017 - SCI, University of Oregon Vitality / Activity - Possible Reduction: - Who’s on Street - Shopping Districts Diminishing - Possible Increase: - Walkable Suburban Centers? - Incr. Accessibility to Centers (Urb/Suburb)
  16. 16. © 2017 - SCI, University of Oregon 5 Design / Development Effects - Land Use - Space / Physical Design - Density / Proximity - Dispersion / Sprawl - Vitality / Activity
  17. 17. Nico Larco, AIA Associate Professor, Dept. of Architecture Co-Founder and Co-Director, Sustainable Cities Initiative University of Oregon nlarco@uoregon.edu Urbanism Next
  18. 18. © 2017 - SCI, University of Oregon Urbanism Next - Urbanism Next National Network - AIA / APA / ASLA / ULI Urbanism Next Conf. (Spring ‘18) - Urbanism Next Blog / Clearinghouse - PBOT / BPS / TriMet / Metro / ODOT Group - Parking Impacts / Dynamic Regulations Research - Municipal Budgets Research (Pub Admin, UD, Law) - http://urbanismnext.uoregon.edu
  19. 19. Our friend, the autonomous vehicle Arthur C. Nelson, Ph.D., FAICP University of Arizona https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2015-gm-super-cruise-driverless-car/img/current_500pxwide.jpg
  20. 20. Transportation and Land Use in an Automated Vehicle World Smaller and More Efficient ROWs: AVs’ unique navigation capabilities are expected to enable narrower traffic lanes, reduce the number of lanes needed to accommodate traffic demand, and remove the need for medians. Increased demand for drop-off areas close to destination entrances: These drop-off areas will impact site-level design and affect access management in the form, location, and design of curb cuts and drop-off/loading areas. Signage & Signalization reform that improves urban aesthetics: The future lies not in large numbers of traffic signs and signals, as traffic information can be transmitted to AVs wirelessly in real time, yielding far fewer traffic signs and signals and less cluttered urban spaces. Improve Bicycle & Pedestrian Infrastructure: AVs are expected to improve the safety of bicyclists and pedestrians, but they may also make non-motorized travel more difficult by fragmenting or slowing down bike/pedestrian networks. Massive Surplus Parking: AVs will bring massive changes to the location, form, and amount of parking, as AVs can park themselves or remain in the transportation network while awaiting their next rider. New Billionaires because of Massive Redevelopment Opportunities: Reducing parking and narrowed right-of-ways will yield substantial redevelopment opportunities in urban areas dominated by surface parking and wide roadways. Tim Chapin, Lindsay Stevens, Jeremy Crute, Jordan Crandall, Anne Rokyta, Alexandria Washington, Florida State University.
  21. 21. Source: Henderson, J., & Spencer, J. (2016). Autonomous vehicles and commercial real estate. Cornell Real Estate Review, 14(1), 44-55.
  22. 22. National Center for Smart Growth Simulation •AVs are unlikely to hollow out the core of regions, even if employment disperses. •Hypothesis: Downtown/urban core households gain better access to dispersed employment centers. •AV adoption will increase growth in outlying areas. •AV adoption may increase overall regional growth as further out areas become viable household locations. •Hypothesis (ACN): Rural areas further erode as AV technology pushes people toward the technology. National Center for Smart Growth, University of Maryland, College Park May 15, 2017
  23. 23. Downside AV Scenario Outcomes • AVs increase travelling by car, traffic volumes rise as will VMT and even travel time. • Sprawl would be further encouraged while public transit wanes. • AVs will induce more energy use, more consumption of land, more socioeconomic segregation and oddly longer aggregate travel times. • But all this means that traveling by AV can become its own inconvenience. Adapted from Wolfgang Gruel and Joseph M. Stanford. Assessing the Long-Term Effects of Autonomous Vehicles: a speculative approach. Transportation Research Procedia 13 ( 2016 ) 18 – 29.
  24. 24. National Center for Smart Growth, University of Maryland, College Park May 15, 2017 Commuting Time Less congestion closer in. More congestion farther out.
  25. 25. Urban Form Ruminations • AVs will remake downtowns—for people – Higher demand for residential development will push many jobs out because they cannot compete. • More jobs will migrate to suburbs but that’s where 90+% of the jobs are anyway. • AVs will make suburban jobs more accessible but transit is still needed to connect nodes efficiently and minimize new forms of congestion without transit. • AVs may actually cause more congestion along transit-starved suburban corridors. • Transit corridor and TOD development increased as AVs reduce parking lots.
  26. 26. How Might AV Impact Our Work? How might BPS’s activities change? • Zoning code? • EV charging infrastructure? • Transition to AVs? • Equity/job loss? • Climate impacts?
  27. 27. How Might AV Impact Our Work? How might BPS’s zoning code change? • Loading and unloading areas? • Parking Minimums/Maximums? • Urban Design?
  28. 28. How Might AV Impact Our Work? How might EV Charging Strategies change? • EV Charging locations? • Induction charging?
  29. 29. How Might AV Impact Our Work? How might BPS’s activities change during the transition to AVs?
  30. 30. How Might AV Impact Our Work? How might BPS’s mitigate impacts on humans? • Equity? • Job loss?
  31. 31. How Might AV Impact Our Work? How might Portland’s Climate Action Plan change? • Acknowledge AVs • Prioritize FAVES
  32. 32. Autonomous Vehicle Technology and Transit: Chocolate & Peanut Butter or Oil & Water? Eric Hesse Strategic Planner TriMet 2017 Transportation and Communities Summit
  33. 33. Access to/for customers and vehicles • The curb is our counter • Geometry abides Cost and Competition • If driving is cheaper and easier, does traffic get worse? • Can transit compete with Autonomous TNCs? Can it not? Land use • Will AV help create more transit supportive environments or enable more auto(nomo)centric sprawl? Or maybe both? • What happens with parking and ROW? What impacts might AV have on Transit?
  34. 34. Financial impacts • Reduced Revenue vs Reduced Cost? • Long-term stability Safety • Driver assist • Autonomous ops Workforce • New opportunities • Changing roles What impacts might AV have on Transit?
  35. 35. What outcomes do we want? Fleets of Autonomous Vehicles that are Electric and Shared Credit: Robin Chase But, let’s add: Accessible and Connected to Transit Easy Mile
  36. 36. Enhance Transit • Make transit fast + reliable = attractive • Signal Priority & Dedicated lanes • Occupancy-based ROW priority? – AVs yield to buses/shuttles in mixed traffic to maximize person throughput • Congestion Bypass? – AV use of LRT/BRT dedicated ROW? – New revenue for transit? Managed to ensure desired transit speeds, but utilizing excess capacity How do Transit Agencies (and Places) Adapt?
  37. 37. Evolve Transit • MicroTransit; first/last mile connections – Consider “shuttle shed”; complement walk/bike sheds – Partner with other services to extend shed – Data share for better station area planning • Expand station access – Review station spacing to improve travel times Evolve Park & Rides • Plan for near-term adaptive reuse – Consider P&R as AV storage/usage space – Larger drop off zones may be needed How do Transit Agencies Adapt?How do Transit Agencies (and Places) Adapt?
  38. 38. Co-Evolve with Partners • TNCs – To serve higher capacity transit – To supplement off-peak service » Especially lower demand areas (cost structure) – To provide more mobility choices » Shared data and info systems leading to MaaS • Workforce – (Re)training for current and future opportunities • Institutions – Hospitals, schools, airports, large employer campuses as early applications » AV as facility circulators; connect places to HCT How do Transit Agencies (and Places) Adapt?
  39. 39. Help achieve shared community visions • Align with adopted plans but bring new tools • Connect transit with place • Make transit more accessible • Build Complete Communities (NegaMiles?) Collect, use and share y/our data • Better serve customers • Achieve Safety, Traffic, and Environmental Outcomes • Optimize transportation and land use planning How do Transit Agencies (and Palces) Adapt?How do Transit Agencies (and Places) Adapt?
  40. 40. Value travel and ROW as goods • Reduce Empty Miles through pricing • Promote off-peak travel and spreading to maximize capacity temporally • Address equity through targeted policy and investment strategies • Include curb access in valuation/ prioritization How do Transit Agencies (and Places) Adapt?
  41. 41. Thank you!
  42. 42. Asheville, North Carolina Population: 89,248 (2014)
  43. 43. Cary, North Carolina Population: 148,333 (2014)
  44. 44. Chapel Hill, North Carolina Population: 59,758 (2014)

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