More dataVisual simulationIterative process with policy-makers
POLICY-MAKING 2.0 CONFERENCEDavid Osimowww.crossover-project.eu#policy20Policy Making 2.0: a research roadmaptowards actual policy impact
MAIN POINTS The problem: The challenges of policy making The goals of the roadmap: a platform to strengthen thecommunity towards shared objectives The method: open and recursive A vision for a new policy 2.0 The research challenges to get there The critic: is this enough? Between techno-utopianismand real policy impact What’s next? The beginning of a beautiful friendship…
POLICY-MAKING IN A COMPLEX WORLD: THECHALLENGES Detect and understand problems before they becomeunsolvable, ensuring long-term thinking, dealing with“unknown unknowns” Involve open intelligence in policy-making, and extract “goodideas” from it From words to action: ensure implementation and actualbehavioural change Reduce uncertainty on the possible systemic impacts ofpolicies, and reduce time-to-impact evaluation All this,dealing with a distributed governance model.The traditional division of “market” and “state” nolonger fits a reality where public decision and actionis effectively carried out by a plurality of actors.
GOALS: BUILDING BRIDGES, OVERCOMING THEFRAGMENTATION IN AN EMERGING FIELDDisciplines Policy domains Stakeholders Countries•Economics,•physics,•mathematics,•computer science,•psychology,•social sciences•Health,•economy,•labour market,•social affairs,•environment,•transport•Researchers,•industry,•civil society,•government•FP7 vs Hackers•EU,•US,•BRICs,•developingcountries
METHOD: OPEN AND RECURSIVE202cases4 casestudies740 members236respondents200+ people inf2f discussionsBrussels: 70participants, 42papersWashington: 30participants, 16papers40 commentsGSS and thirdparty workshops50appsprizeLinksto USPIN
A VISION: A THIRD WAY OF POLICY MAKING?+ Emergent+ Open+ Peer2peer+ UnexpectedDirect Democracy- Social media- Populism- Unstructured discussion- Loudest voice+ Expert baseddecisions+ Robust+ RelevantTechnocracy- Black box- Closed models- Reductionism
A VISION: A THIRD WAY OF POLICY MAKING?+ Emergent+ Open+ Peer2peer+ UnexpectedDirect Democracy- Social media- Populism- Unstructured discussion- Loudest voice+ Expert baseddecisions+ Robust+ RelevantTechnocracy- Black box- Closed models- ReductionismPolicy-making 2.0:Open and evidence based
TURNING POLICY IN IMPACT: APPS FORBEHAVIOURAL CHANGE
SENSE MAKING IN EVALUATION THROUGH OPENDATAhttp://stateofworkingamerica.org/who-gains/#/?start=2000&end=2008
ROADMAP OVERVIEW (1)Name State of the Art Gaps Short TermResearchLong TermResearchSystems ofAtomizedmodelsSome modellingenvironments providelibraries of ready-to-usemodels, but in mostcases, they are notcompletely openDevelopingcomponents fora specificframeworkconstrains useOpen-sourcemodelling andsimulationenvironments,openvisualisation ofresultsDefinition of openmodellingstandards,interoperabilityCollaborative ModellingMainly performed offline,urgent need for IntuitiveInterfacesCitizenscollaboration inthe public policymodellingprocessGroup modelbuilding andsystems thinking,Web 2.0 tools forcollaborationCollaborativeInternet-basedmodelling toolsBig Data Public health,environmental analysis,crisis management andanticipationPrivacy, dataaccess andsharing data,interpreting dataCrowdsourcing,data mining,network analysis,predictivemodellingCollecting,cleaning, storingdata,summarizingdata andextracting somemeaningOpinionMiningArgument mappingsoftware, automatedcontent analysis, votingAdvise ApplicationsDetection ofspam and fakereviews, limitsof collaborativefilteringImproving theaccuracy ofalgorithm foropinion detection,reduction of humaneffortUsable, peer-to-peer opinionmining tools forcitizens
ROADMAP OVERVIEW (2)Name State of the Art Gaps Short TermResearchLong TermResearchVisualAnalyticsDemographicsvisualisationslegalArgumentsvisualisation,discussionarguments visualisationUsability:availabilityof low cost, ready touseandreconfigurableinfovis systemsImpactevaluation ofvisual analyticson policychoices,simultaneousmultiplevisualisationIntuitive affordablevisual analyticsinterface for citizensSeriousGamingPurpose-built gaming andsimulation forunderstanding of policyissues and of individualbehaviourChanges in publicpolicy makingperception ,institutional changesImmersiveinterfaces,Citizens- andexperts-generatedgamingAugmented realitycitizens-generatedgaming andsimulation,Ubiquitous feedback systemson publicgovernanceLinked OpenGovernmentDataUsed toIncrease theawareness of citizens onspecific issues, andpromote accountability ofpublic officialsHow to reducehuman efforts;Identification of goodideas;Finding necessaryinvestments;How to improveusability of tools.Assessing thetechnicalfeatures of adataset,Assessing theusefulness of adataset forparticular usersIntegration of opengovernment data(OGD) and socialmedia data (SMD)
POLICY-MAKING 2.0 IS MORE THAN THE SUM OFITS RESEARCH CHALLENGESSource: IPTS-NTUA Case studies
TAKING A CRITICAL VIEW: CAN TECHNOLOGYCHANGE POLICY-MAKING? Learning lessons from 20 years of technology adoptionin government: bottlenecks are cultural andorganisational, not technological Technology will not suddenly free policy-making frompoliticking, corruption, personal interests, short termthinking, low interest from citizens… Main interest of these tools for policy-makers is inproviding: High quantity of participants (X people said this) Robust-looking evidence to justify choices (complex data saidthat..)
YET: Technology is not neutral. Open data, open models,open consultation, simulation of different impacts,uncovering hidden feedback, usable tools andvisualisation create incentives and lower barriers toentry Policy-making 2.0 need also a new cultural approach toimplementation: more focus on design; massive skillsneeded by policy-makers and civil society; learning bydoing and barcamps; better understanding of the limitsof policy-making Technology is just one issue!
A REALITY CHECK: POLICY-MAKING 2.0 STILL MOREPROMISING THAN IMPACTFUL 2050 PATHWAYS : high usage (16K pathways created, 200stakeholders involved in the building phase). Higher awareness bycitizens. Output used by govt to back up the Carbon Strategy. GLEAM: adopted by mainstream gov’t agency to anticipate diseasespread through transportation. Adopted also for educationalpurposes OPINION SPACE 3.0: significant participation (5K individuals) ,endorsement at top level (Secretary of State Clinton) URBANSIM: High usage by US local gov’tOPEN QUESTIONS: Do they actually lead to better policies? Do they predict impact better than other models? Do they bring new relevant ideas useful for policy-making?Lack of systematic robust evaluation of different policy-methods.Initial evidence points to the potential impact, but very far fromcounterfactual / RCT approach available to date.
WHAT’S NEXT?1. Share experiences on the Policy-Making 2.0 group onLinkedin2. Collaborative curation: 200+ inspiring examples in DiigoGroup: http://groups.diigo.com/group/crossoverproject3. Follow-up with EgovPoliNet - http://www.policy-community.eu/4. Meeting in Samos http://samos-summit.blogspot.ie/At a minimum level, collaboration does not need a dedicatedprojectLET’S START MAKING IT HAPPEN TODAY AND TOMORROWfirstname.lastname@example.org