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Crossroad roadmap ict2010


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Presenting the draft research roadmap on ICT for Governance and Policy Modeling

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Crossroad roadmap ict2010

  1. 1. David Osimo, Yannis Charalabidis ICT 2010 Networking Session Brussels, September 2 7 th , 2010
  2. 2. <ul><li>Society increasingly interconnected, flexible, fast-evolving, unpredictable </li></ul><ul><li>Governance often silos-based, linear, obscure, hierarchical, over-simplified </li></ul>Brussels, September 27 th , 2 010 Policies Health R&D Social Disciplines Economics Mathematics ICT Actors Government Citizens Industry
  3. 3. More people involved More accurate analytical, modeling and simulation tools More data available 2010 2030 Brussels, September 27 th , 2 010
  4. 4. Model-based collaborative governance Data-powered collective intelligence and action Government service utility Science base of ICT enabled governance Brussels, September 27 th , 2 010
  5. 5. State of the art: research push Future scenarios: demand pull Gaps Grand challenges (draft) Research challenges Research challenges Research roadmap (final) Brussels, September 27 th , 2 010
  6. 6. State of the art: research push Future scenarios: demand pull Gaps Grand challenges (draft) Research challenges Research challenges Research roadmap (final) Brussels, September 27 th , 2 010
  7. 7. <ul><li>Toda’sy policy modeling: </li></ul><ul><li>Large human effort > only on major policy decisions (e.g. REACH directive); </li></ul><ul><li>using mainly econometric models and overlooking human behaviour; unable to account for human behavior and tipping points. </li></ul><ul><li>Social simulation and agent-based models are marginal, black-box, fragmented and single-purpose; built by domain computational science specialist, at high cost for involving lateral domain experts or interested stakeholders. Progress in modeling software has not matched advances in computing power (Post). </li></ul><ul><li>Designing, reviewing and updating formal models from qualitative and quantitative data is costly. </li></ul>Brussels, September 27 th , 2 010
  8. 8. <ul><li>Integrated, composable and reusable models </li></ul><ul><ul><li>models composability and interoperability (between software and modelling methods) to build on existing models </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Short term research: definition of procedures for composition and repositories </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Long term research: model interoperability and SOA / GRID </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Collaborative modelling </li></ul><ul><ul><li>intuitive model building and simulation tools to allow all stakeholders to take part in transparent formal modelling at large scale </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Short term: transparent and intuitive modelling interfaces </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Long-term: mass-collaboration modelling framework </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Easy access to information and knowledge creation </li></ul><ul><ul><li>methods of information elicitation that, during the overall model building and use processes, will help decision makers to learn how a certain system works and ultimately gain insights (knowledge) and understanding (apply the extracted knowledge from those processes) in order to successfully implement a desired policy. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Short-term: interoperability of data sources, information elicitation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Long-term: user-behavior information generation; mass-interactive learning environments </li></ul></ul>Brussels, September 27 th , 2 010
  9. 9. <ul><li>Model validation </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Reliability of models plays a crucial role in policy modeling and simulation. A policy model should be developed for a specific purpose (or context) and its validity is to be determined with respect to that purpose (or context). Therefore, specific and integrated techniques and ICT tools are required to be developed for policy modeling, (conceptual and software validation ) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Short-term: Consolidation of validation techniques </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Long-term: complex and large scale model validation; artificial intelligence incorporated in validation systems </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Interactive simulation </li></ul><ul><ul><li>It allows a researcher to interactively control simulations and perform data analysis while avoiding many of the pitfalls associated with the traditional batch/post processing cycle. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Short-term: Usability </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Long-term: Input/output system integration, Computational steering </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Output analysis and knowledge synthesis </li></ul><ul><ul><li>the analysis and integration of feedbacks in modelling and simulation process </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Short-term: DOE for policy model simulation, ranking techniques </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Long-term: sophisticated variance estimators, automated output analysis </li></ul></ul>Brussels, September 27 th , 2 010
  10. 10. Brussels, September 27 th , 2 010 Layer Research Challenge Collaboration and Action User-generated simulation and gaming for public action New institutional design for collaborative governance Analysis and representation Collaborative visual analytics for policy-making Peer-to-peer public opinion mining Data collection and validation Federated dynamic identity management Real-time, high-quality, reusable open government data Privacy compliant participatory sensing for real-time policy design and evaluation Lisa Simpson Bart Simpson Conversation Today 2030 Action 2030 2030
  11. 11. <ul><li>Privacy-compliant participatory sensing for real-time policy-making </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Dramatically increasing the data availability for policy evaluation while maintaining privacy and ensuring policy inference </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Short term: combination of sensing with social network analysis, data quality verification, context verification; </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Long term: privacy by design; enhanced analytical techniques to respond to subtle events; data collaboration protocols </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Real-time, high-quality, reusable open government data </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Simplifying and lowering costs of real-time open data publication, ensuring data quality and advanced privacy monitoring </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Short-term: data vocabularies; data curating tools; easy linked data publication </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Long-term: on the fly data quality agreements, web of data, real-time validation and publication </li></ul></ul>Brussels, September 27 th , 2 010
  12. 12. <ul><li>Federated dynamic identity management </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Necessary to ensure trustful collaboration, federated across country, with multiple levels of security for different services, relying on authentic sources, usable in private sector context. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Short-term: Dynamic user-controlled data disclosure; culturally-dependent identity systems; trust negotiation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Long-term: context dependent identity management </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Peer-to-peer public opinion mining </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The limits of human attention, combined to the existing simple interfaces available for browsing discussion and comments, often leads to low levels of engagement and flaming wars, driving to polarisation of arguments and enhanced risks of conflicts. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Short-term research: computer-generated cross-language policy corpora; algorithms for policy statistical analysis; comment recommendation algorithms </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Long-term research: integration with social network analysis; audiovisual mining; peer-to-peer usable opinion mining tools; </li></ul></ul>Brussels, September 27 th , 2 010
  13. 13. <ul><li>Intuitive, collaborative visual analytics of data for policy-making </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Visual analytics is particularly effective when dealing with complex and non-predictable patterns, such as those related to assessing and anticipating public policy impact, but is not formalised in the policy context </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Short-term research: Collaborative platform display; Interaction between visualization and models; Visualization infrastructures for policy modelling issues </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Long-term research: Bias identification; learning adaptive algorithm for users’ intent; intuitive affordable interfaces for citizens </li></ul></ul><ul><li>User-generated simulation and gaming tools for public action </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Simulation and serious gaming impact on personal incentives to action and showing long-term and systemic effects of individual choices, but lack open scenarios based on personal and policy decision as well as usability </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Short-term: kit-based citizens-controlled simulation and gaming; integration with policy models </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Long-term: augmented reality in policy gaming and simulation </li></ul></ul><ul><li>New institutional design of collaborative governance </li></ul>
  14. 14. GC 3 GC 1 GC 2 State Citizens Citizens Brussels, September 27 th , 2 010
  15. 15. <ul><li>Present: </li></ul><ul><li>Traditional public services have not delivered on their promise for time, quality, cost, or overall return on investment </li></ul><ul><li>Citizens rarely have access to personalised services in the way they want </li></ul><ul><li>Service design cannot tap into citizen or SME’s productivity. Services practically remain the same as new service creation is hindered </li></ul><ul><li>Future: </li></ul><ul><li>Services are converging and moving from the physical into the digital world, universally accessible on any device from all social groups </li></ul><ul><li>Government clouds are overcoming interoperability, privacy and security challenges and provide the base for high automation in public sectors </li></ul><ul><li>Future Internet appears as a key enabler for new public service systems, drastically altering productivity, speed, cost and overall quality </li></ul>The 1-1-1 Concept : every service can be provided in one stop, one second, with one euro cost Brussels, September 27 th , 2 010
  16. 16. <ul><li>Ubiquitous nature : electricity is available everywhere, if you have a proper line and device to connect </li></ul><ul><li>Usability : it is simple to connect to electricity network, provided you have an electric device with a standard plug (different from country to country, sometimes) </li></ul><ul><li>Federation : you don’t really know where / how energy is created within a complex network that cross borders, sectors </li></ul><ul><li>Co-generation : you can be a customer and a provider, at the same time </li></ul><ul><li>De-regulation : although Governments set the regulations and may own some utilities, the market is competitive </li></ul>Multi-channel service provision Simplicity, interoperability, inclusion Public Clouds Service co-creation Service supply deregulation See also “6 common characteristics of service utilities (Rappa, 2004)”: Necessity, Reliability, Usability, Utilisation, Scalability and Exclusivity. Electricity Provision Service Provision Brussels, September 27 th , 2 010
  17. 17. GSU <ul><li>Core Services </li></ul><ul><li>Identification </li></ul><ul><li>Security </li></ul><ul><li>Communication </li></ul><ul><li>Storage </li></ul><ul><li>Execution </li></ul><ul><li>Open Data </li></ul><ul><li>Registry Services </li></ul><ul><li>Citizen Registry </li></ul><ul><li>Health Registry </li></ul><ul><li>Financial Registry </li></ul><ul><li>Cadastre </li></ul><ul><li>Social Security </li></ul><ul><li>Education </li></ul><ul><li>Professional Chamber </li></ul><ul><li>Complex Services </li></ul><ul><li>Taxation </li></ul><ul><li>Health </li></ul><ul><li>Education </li></ul><ul><li>Social Security </li></ul><ul><li>Benefits / subsidies </li></ul><ul><li>Representation / Participation </li></ul><ul><li>Information Services </li></ul><ul><li>Open data </li></ul><ul><li>Semantic services </li></ul><ul><li>Knowledge management </li></ul>Service Aggregation Service Provision <ul><li>Enterprises, SME’s, VSE’s </li></ul><ul><li>Finance </li></ul><ul><li>Growth </li></ul><ul><li>Work and Social Security </li></ul><ul><li>Representation </li></ul><ul><li>Information </li></ul><ul><li>Citizens </li></ul><ul><li>Citizenship </li></ul><ul><li>Health </li></ul><ul><li>Education </li></ul><ul><li>Work and Social Security </li></ul><ul><li>Representation / Participation </li></ul><ul><li>Finance </li></ul><ul><li>Information </li></ul><ul><li>Other / Cross Country GSU’s </li></ul><ul><li>PanEuropean Core Services </li></ul><ul><li>PanEuropean Registry Services </li></ul><ul><li>Cross-country services </li></ul><ul><li>Highly automated </li></ul><ul><li>cross-GSU Services </li></ul><ul><li>Private Service Utilities </li></ul><ul><li>Administrations </li></ul><ul><li>CoreServices </li></ul><ul><li>Registry Services </li></ul><ul><li>Public Sector (web) Services </li></ul><ul><li>Planning </li></ul><ul><li>Monitoring </li></ul><ul><li>Open Data </li></ul>Service Creation Service Consumption Brussels, September 27 th , 2 010
  18. 18. <ul><li>The public Service Store: The Government Service Utility allows for service composition and consumption from the Public Sector, private enterprises and citizens in parallel (service co-generation) </li></ul><ul><li>The society-driven town hall (self-service government): Citizens utilize real-time context-aware public services to compose interoperable, complex service systems in their everyday life </li></ul><ul><li>Fight against corruption: Multiple government, private and hybrid clouds manipulate massive data provided by citizens, that can be cross-checked by federated registries and validated by ubiquitous devices </li></ul><ul><li>Crisis Management: Services can be provided through multiple channels, allowing for cloud infrastructure sharing and load balancing in times of crisis </li></ul>Brussels, September 27 th , 2 010
  19. 19. <ul><li>Digital public services value proposition for all </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Reshape digital public services objectives, scope and means </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Create a value proposition model for all stakeholders </li></ul></ul><ul><li>User-driven innovation shaping Public Services </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Service co-design, co-generation, mashing and deployment </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Citizen generated ideas for new services </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Change the “DNA” of Public Services </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Cloud – based service provision, high automation, interoperability </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Multichannel provision, internet of things </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Services in one second, one stop, at one euro cost </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Massive Public Information as a Service </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Utilisation of public information and knowledge </li></ul></ul>Brussels, September 27 th , 2 010
  20. 20. <ul><li>Present: </li></ul><ul><li>Although a lot of solutions are being developed and applied, there is a lack of systematisation of the domain, hindering re-use of practices, gradual refinement and evolution </li></ul><ul><li>Relations with neighboring domains are not explored, resulting in unnecessary duplications or lack of cooperation </li></ul><ul><li>Future: </li></ul><ul><li>ICT-enabled governance is maturing into a well-established discipline, integrating social sciences, management, operational research and ICT </li></ul><ul><li>Classification of research approaches, applications, problems and solution paths supports gradual evolution </li></ul><ul><li>The research community is constantly updating the objectives and challenges of the domain, utilising new ICT developments for the good of the society </li></ul>Brussels, September 27 th , 2 010
  21. 21. Time Impact Today Brussels, September 27 th , 2 010 External Enhancement & Exploration Popularisation Wave 3 Industrial quality solutions. Communication and marketing towards broader communities. Substantiation of value. Development and Extension Internal Enhancement & Exploration Wave 2 Stabilisation of models and tools. Population of solution scenaria. Impact assessment and simulation. Training curriculum. Concept Formulation Foundational Principles Wave 1 Ability to identify and describe problems and solutions. Research community establishment. Convergence on initial concepts.
  22. 22. <ul><li>Formal methods and tools for categorising and analysing the concepts, the problems and solution paths in ICT-enabled governance </li></ul><ul><li>Metrics and assessment models , Decision Support, Modelling & Simulation Tools (supporting problem-solution relation, utilising BPM/BPR tools, vertical approaches) </li></ul><ul><li>Multi-disciplinary issues and relations with neighbouring domains </li></ul><ul><li>Continuous evolution of the domain to meet new societal challenges </li></ul>Brussels, September 27 th , 2 010
  23. 23. <ul><li>Today: rank the research challenges by adding post-its; add new ones. </li></ul><ul><li>Until October 15 th : rank and comment online via </li></ul><ul><li>Full draft roadmap available and commentable online at </li></ul><ul><li>November 30 th : publication of final roadmap </li></ul>Brussels, September 27 th , 2 010