The Future is Weird
Media, Technology and Configurable Culture
Dr. Aram Sinnreich Rutgers School of Communication & Informa...
A Change is Gonna Come
NOW 3 YEARS 5+ YEARS
Wednesday, September 11, 13
The Near Term
2013-2015
Wednesday, September 11, 13
Mobile Interfaces
THE FACTS
• 6.85 BILLION MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS WORLDWIDE
• 80% OF GLOBAL POPULATION HAS A MOBILE DEVICE
•...
Mobile Interfaces
THE CONSEQUENCES
PROS
• DRIVE TIME BECOMES INTERACTIVE
• CUSTOM MUSIC, NEWS, MARKETING, NAVIGATION
CONS
...
The Cloud
THE FACTS
• CLOUD COMPUTING IS $150
BILLION IN 2013
• 70% OF BUSINESSES
MOVING TO CLOUD
• 36% OF CONSUMER DATA I...
The Cloud
THE CONSEQUENCES
PROS
• CAR BECOMES A CENTRAL HUB IN CONSUMERS’ DIGITAL LIVES
• VALUE CHAIN EFFICIENCIES (SUPPLI...
Configurable Culture
THE FACTS
• 65% US & 82% GLOBAL
ADULTS USE THIS STUFF
• USAGE SKYROCKETS WITH
HIGHER INCOME LEVELS
• 5...
Configurable Culture
THE CONSEQUENCES
PROS
• HIGHLY ENGAGED CUSTOMER BASE
• CONSUMER BRANDS = ENTERTAINMENT
• “PIMP MY RIDE...
Social Media
THE FACTS
• 1/6 OF THE GLOBAL POPULATION IS ON FACEBOOK EACH MONTH
• 1/6 OF FACEBOOK USERS ARE MOBILE-ONLY
• ...
Social Media
THE CONSEQUENCES
PROS
• OPPORTUNITY FOR DIRECT, REAL-TIME ENGAGEMENT WITH
CUSTOMER BASE (FOR BETTER AND FOR W...
IP & Open Source
THE FACTS
• IP ACCOUNTS FOR ABOUT HALF THE VALUE OF PUBLIC CO’S
• 2012: RED HAT BOOKED $1B IN REVENUE
• H...
IP & Open Source
THE CONSEQUENCES
PROS
• RESEARCHERS, MODDERS & BRAND ADVOCATES DO YOUR
WORK FOR YOU
• LOWER PRODUCTION/MA...
The Middle Term
2015-2018
Wednesday, September 11, 13
Augmented Interfaces
THE FACTS
• SAMSUNG GALAXY GEAR LAUNCH: SEPT
25, 2013
• GOOGLE GLASS LAUNCH: 2014
• 11% OF STUDENTS H...
Augmented Interfaces
THE CONSEQUENCES
PROS
• COUNTLESS TRANSPORTATION APPLICATIONS
• REAL-TIME SENSOR DATA CAN IMPROVE DRI...
Mesh Networks
THE FACTS
• DOZENS OF EMERGING STANDARDS
• OPERABLE VIA WIFI, BLUETOOTH, GSM
• RESISTANT TO CENSORSHIP &
SUR...
Mesh Networks
THE CONSEQUENCES
PROS
• POTENTIAL FOR AUTO-BASED MESH
• PLATFORM FOR “INTERNET OF THINGS”
• NETWORK SERVICES...
3D Printing
THE FACTS
• OVER 150 COMPOUNDS CAN CURRENTLY BE
PRINTED, FROM CHOCOLATE TO POLYMERS
• WOHLERS: 3D PRINTERS = $...
3D Printing
THE CONSEQUENCES
PROS
• MASSIVE SHIFT IN MANUFACTURING PARADIGM
• CONSUMERS CAN REPLACE/AUGMENT PARTS
CONS
• *...
RTB & Targeting
THE FACTS
• RTB = 20-25% OF ONLINE DISPLAY ADVERTISING
• EMARKETER: $8.7 BILLION IN U.S. IN 2017
• EMARKET...
RTB & Targeting
THE CONSEQUENCES
PROS
• RTB ELIMINATES GUESSWORK FROM MARKETING
• NETWORKED DRIVERS YIELD VALUABLE METADAT...
Digital Currency
THE FACTS
• PAYPAL TOTAL VOLUME = $145 BILLION
• OVER 50 DEVICES NOW HAVE NFC
• MOBILE PAY WILL HAVE GREA...
Digital Currency
THE CONSEQUENCES
PROS
• LOWER BARRIERS INCREASE OVERALL
VOLUME OF TRANSACTION
• BOON TO SMALL BUSINESSES
...
The Long Term
2018-???
Wednesday, September 11, 13
Integrated Interfaces
FACTS & SPECULATION
• 2012: FIRST AR CONTACT LENS
• 2013: UW SCIENTIST CONTROLS
ANOTHER SCIENTIST’S ...
Integrated Interfaces
THE CONSEQUENCES
X-FACTORS
• CYBORGEAN RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN
DRIVER AND CAR
• BLURRING LINE BETWEEN P...
Autonomous Cars
FACTS & SPECULATION
• 2012: FIRST AUTONOMOUS LICENSE
• 2013: GOOGLE ACQUIRES WAZE
• 2013: DAIMLER/NOKIA PA...
Autonomous Cars
THE CONSEQUENCES
X-FACTORS
• 25 BILLION HOURS/YEAR OF COMMUTING IN US
• AT CURRENT HULU RATES, THIS IS WOR...
Thank you.
Questions?
Aram Sinnreich
sinn@rutgers.edu
Twitter: @aram
sinnreich.com
This entire presentation is freely avai...
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The Future is Weird: Media, Technology & Configurable Culture

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Presentation on the future of media and communications to Daimler, 9/11/13

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The Future is Weird: Media, Technology & Configurable Culture

  1. 1. The Future is Weird Media, Technology and Configurable Culture Dr. Aram Sinnreich Rutgers School of Communication & Information Presented to Daimler Group, September 11, 2013 This entire presentation is freely available under a Creative Commons 3.0 Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike license Wednesday, September 11, 13
  2. 2. A Change is Gonna Come NOW 3 YEARS 5+ YEARS Wednesday, September 11, 13
  3. 3. The Near Term 2013-2015 Wednesday, September 11, 13
  4. 4. Mobile Interfaces THE FACTS • 6.85 BILLION MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS WORLDWIDE • 80% OF GLOBAL POPULATION HAS A MOBILE DEVICE • 56% OF US ADULTS OWN SMARTPHONES • 79% US CAR OWNERS USE DIGITAL DEVICES IN-CAR • MOBILE = 12% OF MEDIA CONSUMPTION • MOBILE = 19% OF US DIGITAL AD SPEND • 80% OF SMARTPHONE USERS SHOP ON THEIR DEVICES Wednesday, September 11, 13
  5. 5. Mobile Interfaces THE CONSEQUENCES PROS • DRIVE TIME BECOMES INTERACTIVE • CUSTOM MUSIC, NEWS, MARKETING, NAVIGATION CONS • LIMITED ATTENTION = LIMITED VALUE • 10% OF CAR INJURIES DUE TO DISTRACTED DRIVING X-FACTORS • MAPS, TRAFFIC, ZIPCAR, UBER, PAYMOBILE CHANGE THE AUTOMOTIVE ECOLOGY Wednesday, September 11, 13
  6. 6. The Cloud THE FACTS • CLOUD COMPUTING IS $150 BILLION IN 2013 • 70% OF BUSINESSES MOVING TO CLOUD • 36% OF CONSUMER DATA IN THE CLOUD BY 2016 • 320 MILLION APPLE ICLOUD USERS ALONE • 12M SITES HOSTED ON AWS, 1/3 OF ALL VISITS Wednesday, September 11, 13
  7. 7. The Cloud THE CONSEQUENCES PROS • CAR BECOMES A CENTRAL HUB IN CONSUMERS’ DIGITAL LIVES • VALUE CHAIN EFFICIENCIES (SUPPLIERS/DEALERS/CONSUMERS) CONS • INCREASED THIRD-PARTY COMPETITION FOR CONSUMER • SECURITY & PRIVACY CONCERNS X-FACTORS • AUTOMOTIVE APPLICATIONS OF “BIG DATA” • ROLE OF AUTO CO. IN HOSTING? Wednesday, September 11, 13
  8. 8. Configurable Culture THE FACTS • 65% US & 82% GLOBAL ADULTS USE THIS STUFF • USAGE SKYROCKETS WITH HIGHER INCOME LEVELS • 5-10 MILLION YOUTUBE VIDS FOR “MERCEDES BENZ” • LARGE & GROWING DIY/MODDING COMMUNITY Wednesday, September 11, 13
  9. 9. Configurable Culture THE CONSEQUENCES PROS • HIGHLY ENGAGED CUSTOMER BASE • CONSUMER BRANDS = ENTERTAINMENT • “PIMP MY RIDE” MENTALITY DEEPENS AFFINITY CONS • LOSS OF CONTROL OVER MESSAGING, BRANDING AND DESIGN X-FACTORS • CO-BRANDING OPPORTUNITIES FOR HARDWARE AND SOFTWARE MUSIC, TECHNOLOGY, AND THE RISE OF CONFIGURABLE CULTURE MASHEDUP ARAM SINNREICH Wednesday, September 11, 13
  10. 10. Social Media THE FACTS • 1/6 OF THE GLOBAL POPULATION IS ON FACEBOOK EACH MONTH • 1/6 OF FACEBOOK USERS ARE MOBILE-ONLY • 2.5 BILLION PIECES OF CONTENT SHARED DAILY ON FB • 70% OF BUSINESSES HAVE GAINED CUSTOMERS VIA FB • 550 MILLION TWITTER USERS, 500 MILLION TWEETS/DAY • 25% OF USERS WHO COMPLAIN ABOUT PRODUCTS VIA TWITTER EXPECT A RESPONSE WITHIN AN HOUR • FASTEST GROWING TWITTER DEMO = 55-64 YEAR OLDS Wednesday, September 11, 13
  11. 11. Social Media THE CONSEQUENCES PROS • OPPORTUNITY FOR DIRECT, REAL-TIME ENGAGEMENT WITH CUSTOMER BASE (FOR BETTER AND FOR WORSE) • EARNED MEDIA VIA VIRAL MARKETING • BRAND HALO (M-B IS A FORTUNE “SOCIAL MEDIA SUPERSTAR”) CONS • INABILITY TO CONTAIN NEGATIVE PR • SOCIAL FATIGUE: AT BEST, A MOVING TARGET • HUMAN COSTS DON’T SCALE WELL X-FACTORS • “GAMIFICATION” OF TRANSPORTATION? Wednesday, September 11, 13
  12. 12. IP & Open Source THE FACTS • IP ACCOUNTS FOR ABOUT HALF THE VALUE OF PUBLIC CO’S • 2012: RED HAT BOOKED $1B IN REVENUE • HALF A BILLION WORKS ARE CC LICENSED, INCLUDING: • WIKIPEDIA • WHITEHOUSE.GOV • FLICKR • AL JAZEERA • 3/4 OF WEB SITES RUN ON OPEN SOURCE • “COPYFIGHT” CONTRASTS VALUES OF OPENNESS & PROTECTION • US REGISTER OF COPYRIGHTS: IP “PRESSURE AND GRIDLOCK” Wednesday, September 11, 13
  13. 13. IP & Open Source THE CONSEQUENCES PROS • RESEARCHERS, MODDERS & BRAND ADVOCATES DO YOUR WORK FOR YOU • LOWER PRODUCTION/MARKETING COSTS USING OPEN SOURCE CONS • STRONGER IP = INCREASED RISK, LIABILITY, LAWYERS’ FEES X-FACTORS • RIGHT OF FIRST SALE? • INDUCEMENT? • ANTI-COMMONS RISK TO INNOVATION? Wednesday, September 11, 13
  14. 14. The Middle Term 2015-2018 Wednesday, September 11, 13
  15. 15. Augmented Interfaces THE FACTS • SAMSUNG GALAXY GEAR LAUNCH: SEPT 25, 2013 • GOOGLE GLASS LAUNCH: 2014 • 11% OF STUDENTS HAVE USED AR • 1 MILLION LAYAR DOWNLOADS/MONTH • ABI: 485 MILLION WEARABLE DEVICES SOLD BY 2018 • IMS: $6 BILLION MARKET BY 2016 Wednesday, September 11, 13
  16. 16. Augmented Interfaces THE CONSEQUENCES PROS • COUNTLESS TRANSPORTATION APPLICATIONS • REAL-TIME SENSOR DATA CAN IMPROVE DRIVER EXPERIENCE CONS • LARGELY BEYOND OEM SCOPE X-FACTORS • IMPACT ON DISTRACTED DRIVING? • INTEGRATION WITH AUTOMOTIVE SYSTEMS? Wednesday, September 11, 13
  17. 17. Mesh Networks THE FACTS • DOZENS OF EMERGING STANDARDS • OPERABLE VIA WIFI, BLUETOOTH, GSM • RESISTANT TO CENSORSHIP & SURVEILLANCE • POTENTIAL TO AUGMENT – OR DISINTERMEDIATE – WIRELESS CARRIERS • COMMOTION DEPLOYED SUCCESSFULLY IN NYC AFTER HURRICANE SANDY • GUIFI: 22,000 NODES, 40,000 KM Wednesday, September 11, 13
  18. 18. Mesh Networks THE CONSEQUENCES PROS • POTENTIAL FOR AUTO-BASED MESH • PLATFORM FOR “INTERNET OF THINGS” • NETWORK SERVICES FOR EMERGING MARKETS CONS • SPEED/LATENCY ISSUES • POTENTIAL FOR NETWORK FRAGMENTATION X-FACTORS • SAFE HARBOR FOR MESH PROVIDERS? Wednesday, September 11, 13
  19. 19. 3D Printing THE FACTS • OVER 150 COMPOUNDS CAN CURRENTLY BE PRINTED, FROM CHOCOLATE TO POLYMERS • WOHLERS: 3D PRINTERS = $10.8B IN 2021 • LUX: 3D PRINTED PARTS = $8.4B IN 2025 • PRICE IN 2008: $10,000 • PRICE IN 2013: $200 • FEB 2014: SINTERING PATENT EXPIRES • PRINTED GUN: 100,000 DL’S IN 2 DAYS • MILLIONS OF BLUEPRINTS IN A FEW YEARS Wednesday, September 11, 13
  20. 20. 3D Printing THE CONSEQUENCES PROS • MASSIVE SHIFT IN MANUFACTURING PARADIGM • CONSUMERS CAN REPLACE/AUGMENT PARTS CONS • **SAME AS ABOVE** X-FACTORS • MASS ADOPTION COULD UNDERMINE GLOBAL SHIPPING DEMAND, INFLUENCE AUTO INDUSTRY • COMING WARS OVER (C) AND “PIRACY” Wednesday, September 11, 13
  21. 21. RTB & Targeting THE FACTS • RTB = 20-25% OF ONLINE DISPLAY ADVERTISING • EMARKETER: $8.7 BILLION IN U.S. IN 2017 • EMARKETER: 180M VIDEO IMPRESSIONS IN 2017 • MOBILE RTB GROWING RAPIDLY • “HYPER-TARGETING” ACROSS PLATFORMS BASED ON LOCATION, BEHAVIORAL DATA • NEXT STOP: TELEVISION Wednesday, September 11, 13
  22. 22. RTB & Targeting THE CONSEQUENCES PROS • RTB ELIMINATES GUESSWORK FROM MARKETING • NETWORKED DRIVERS YIELD VALUABLE METADATA CONS • PRIVACY BACKLASH NEARLY GUARANTEED X-FACTORS • AUTO-BASED DATA COLLECTION TO FUEL 3RD-PARTY TARGETING? • REAL-TIME, LOCATION-TARGETED IN-CAR MESSAGING? • FRAUD, BRAND TARNISHMENT, DOMAIN-SQUATTING Wednesday, September 11, 13
  23. 23. Digital Currency THE FACTS • PAYPAL TOTAL VOLUME = $145 BILLION • OVER 50 DEVICES NOW HAVE NFC • MOBILE PAY WILL HAVE GREATEST TRACTION IN EMERGING MARKETS • BITCOIN LAUNCHED 2008 • BC PRICED AT $130, DOWN FROM $230 • BC MARKET > $1 BILLION • GARTNER: MOBILE PAYMENTS = $721 BILLION BY 2017 Wednesday, September 11, 13
  24. 24. Digital Currency THE CONSEQUENCES PROS • LOWER BARRIERS INCREASE OVERALL VOLUME OF TRANSACTION • BOON TO SMALL BUSINESSES CONS • P2P CURRENCIES DIFFICULT TO REGULATE X-FACTORS • BEYOND EZPASS: AUTOMOBILE AS TRANSACTION HUB? Wednesday, September 11, 13
  25. 25. The Long Term 2018-??? Wednesday, September 11, 13
  26. 26. Integrated Interfaces FACTS & SPECULATION • 2012: FIRST AR CONTACT LENS • 2013: UW SCIENTIST CONTROLS ANOTHER SCIENTIST’S BODY NEURALLY • HUDS ALREADY AVAILABLE FROM GARMIN ($150), 2014 LAUNCH FOR MERCEDES-BENZ • KURZWEIL: YOUR BRAIN WILL CONNECT DIRECTLY TO THE CLOUD WITHIN 30 YEARS Wednesday, September 11, 13
  27. 27. Integrated Interfaces THE CONSEQUENCES X-FACTORS • CYBORGEAN RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DRIVER AND CAR • BLURRING LINE BETWEEN PHYSICAL AND DIGITAL SPACE • THE END OF MARKETING & ADVERTISING? • “TRAVEL” REDEFINED VIA VIRTUALITY? • WILL THE “SINGULARITY” HAPPEN? Wednesday, September 11, 13
  28. 28. Autonomous Cars FACTS & SPECULATION • 2012: FIRST AUTONOMOUS LICENSE • 2013: GOOGLE ACQUIRES WAZE • 2013: DAIMLER/NOKIA PARTNER • 2014 MB S-CLASS COULD SELF-DRIVE • ABI, DAIMLER & NISSAN: 2020 TARGET YEAR FOR MAINSTREAM • IEEE: 75% OF CARS BY 2040 • DRIVERLESS CARS NOW STREET LEGAL IN NEVADA, FLORIDA, CALIFORNIA Wednesday, September 11, 13
  29. 29. Autonomous Cars THE CONSEQUENCES X-FACTORS • 25 BILLION HOURS/YEAR OF COMMUTING IN US • AT CURRENT HULU RATES, THIS IS WORTH $7.5 BILLION IN ATTENTION FOR IN-CAR SERVICES • MASSIVE SAFETY/EFFICIENCY BOOST • WHO OWNS THE NETWORK? • WHO OWNS THE DATA? • WHO IS LIABLE? • WHAT ABOUT HACKERS? Wednesday, September 11, 13
  30. 30. Thank you. Questions? Aram Sinnreich sinn@rutgers.edu Twitter: @aram sinnreich.com This entire presentation is freely available under a Creative Commons 3.0 Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike license MUSIC, TECHNOLOGY, AND THE RISE OF CONFIGURABLE CULTURE MASHEDUP ARAM SINNREICH Wednesday, September 11, 13

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