Masse Critique                           25 oct 2011                         Next & CoWorkinglundi 12 décembre 11         ...
Occupy WallStreet                   We have shown what we are capable of in mass. We have shown how we can circumnavigate ...
Qu’entend-on par «masse critique» ?                       masse critique                               =                  ...
Retour d’expérience                                      (25 minutes)           •    WIITHAA : Nicolas Buttin           • ...
Confrontons la théorielundi 12 décembre 11                            5
Loi de Metcalfelundi 12 décembre 11                     6
Loi de Metcalfe                             Robert Metcalfe, fondateur de la société                             3M, a éno...
Loi de Metcalfe                       While letting the members know the exact size of the community may not be           ...
Comment ne pas grandir trop vitelundi 12 décembre 11                                      9
Comment ne pas grandir trop vite                   - No startup that scaled prematurely passed the 100,000 user           ...
Comment ne pas grandir trop vite                   Customer -                   How to scale customer dimension prematurel...
Comment ne pas grandir trop vite                   Because the shared identity of online communities only becomes         ...
Comment ne pas grandir trop vite                   Product                   How to scale product dimension prematurely:  ...
Comment ne pas grandir trop vite                   Product                   How to scale product dimension prematurely:  ...
Comment ne pas grandir trop vite                   Once you’ve determined that the sales funnel process you’ve designed is...
Évalutation de la masse critiquelundi 12 décembre 11                                      16
Évalutation de la masse critique                            Masse critique = 15% dune communauté.                       Th...
Évalutation de la masse critique                   Par densité géographique? D’utilisateurs ? D’offre ?                   ...
Évalutation de la masse critique                       P = I(F x R x U x V)/(D x N)                       P = Perceived Us...
Évalutation de la masse critique                   which can be done in the following ways:                   1. Leverage ...
Trouver les clusters                   3. Exploit irregular network topologies.                   In the last 90s, most pe...
Double tranchant                       As	  was	  mentioned	  earlier,	  the	  critical	  mass	  plays	  the	  role	  of	 ...
L’équilibre de Nash                   "Rappel, c’est l’équilibre de Nash, [de John Forbes Nash, ndlr] qui a donné         ...
Principes pour faire grandir sa communautélundi 12 décembre 11                             24
Law of context                                        Limite de 150 personnes suivies.                   Law of Context   ...
La loi du petit nombre                      The law of the few is a law about the structure of our social network and how ...
La loi du petit nombre                   Anybody who’s run a hyper-local site will tell you that it takes a couple        ...
Stickyness Factor                      The Stickiness Factor is a law about the actual informational content and          ...
Grassroot versus Viral                   From a marketing perspective, consider what would motivate people to help        ...
Grassroot versus Viral                   In his pop science book The Tipping Point (2000), author Malcolm Gladwell        ...
Synthèse                                                            Trouver les                                           ...
Synthèselundi 12 décembre 11   32
Atelierlundi 12 décembre 11             33
Atelier                   Formez des groupes autour de chaque service                   Wiithaa,                   DeWays,...
Points particuliers à nos services                   Ya-t-il des contraintes prévisibles ?                   Y’a-t-il des ...
Atelier                                                             (15 minutes)                   Proposition de travail ...
Atelier                                (15 minutes)                   Présentation aux autres équipeslundi 12 décembre 11 ...
Atelier                                                           (15 minutes)                   Réouverture              ...
merci                       Marc Chataigner                        Myriam Magra                       Antonin Leonardlundi...
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Masse critique

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Masse critique

  1. 1. Masse Critique 25 oct 2011 Next & CoWorkinglundi 12 décembre 11 1
  2. 2. Occupy WallStreet We have shown what we are capable of in mass. We have shown how we can circumnavigate the traditional forms of mainstream media to affect a message. We have shown how we can circulate amongst ourselves images and videos of events that can reach such a tremendous viewership in hours and days, when decades before us, these same practices took months and years. It is now time to start facilitating change. We have already reached critical mass. We are all connected through social media now. Millions of people collectively. I think what it is time to do now is start petitioning the government. We should start to devise petitions and test the formal structures of power. Now that we have reached critical mass, and the forums are all in place, (...) ChicagoT 2 points 4 days ago Sorry you are not even close to critical mass.... until this movement has more than a few million active participants its still a special interest group.... youll end up lobbying like the rest of them.... reply permalink MarcTwane 2 points 3 days ago Once these movements start to really address the issues at hand, and the most intelligent and well versed are called to speak, you will see the popularity grow. There is easily over a million people who are following this movement via Facebook. And that is critical mass. If real concrete ideas start to be organized in each one of these movements across the United States, you will see alot « Dont confuse following more people participating. Perhaps if more time was spent on editing and enhancing the video quality of the LIverstream in New York, more people will start following it as well. For now the viewership has completely stagnated. reply permalink with being involved... I follow ChicagoT 1 points 3 days ago college football... Im not Dont confuse following with being involved... I follow college football... Im not involved... involved... » http://occupywallst.org/forum/letter-of-occupation-and-the-next-logical-step-in-/lundi 12 décembre 11 2
  3. 3. Qu’entend-on par «masse critique» ? masse critique = la nombre suffisant dutilisateurs pour qu’un Question service soit viable. Sommes-nous tous à la même phase de développement ? (l’offre rencontre la 1. Découverte demande) 2. Validation 3. Efficacité 4. Changement d’échelle 5. Consolider 6. Conservation http://www.caci.co.uk/imblog/index.php/social-media-2/achieving-critical-mass-in-social-networks-part-one/lundi 12 décembre 11 3
  4. 4. Retour d’expérience (25 minutes) • WIITHAA : Nicolas Buttin • DeWays : Alexandre Grandremy • La Ruche Qui Dit Oui : Guilhem Chéron • Next & CoWorking : Hayat Ouatahar • Super marmite : Olivier Desmoulin + Marc Chataigner + Myriam Magra + Severine Figuls • BuzzCar : Robin Chase • Nathan Stern • Benjamin Tincq Questions • Glenn Rolland Taille de la communauté, Nombre de membres, • Nathalie Ortiz Pourcentages de membres actifs, • Marine Jouan Nombre de transactions, • Antonin Léonard Depuis combien de temps, Actions déjà menées pour atteindre la masse critique, ...lundi 12 décembre 11 4
  5. 5. Confrontons la théorielundi 12 décembre 11 5
  6. 6. Loi de Metcalfelundi 12 décembre 11 6
  7. 7. Loi de Metcalfe Robert Metcalfe, fondateur de la société 3M, a énoncé une loi empirique établissant l’utilité d’un réseau, s’appliquant tout aussi bien au réseau téléphonique, au fax ou aux réseaux sociaux : « L’utilité d’un réseau est proportionnelle au carré du nombre de ses utilisateurs » http://academic.research.microsoft.com/Publication/3381452/metcalfe-s-law-a-network-becomes-more-valuable-as-it-reaches-more-userslundi 12 décembre 11 7
  8. 8. Loi de Metcalfe While letting the members know the exact size of the community may not be very helpful in the very early stages in its lifecycle, research has shown that new members who join a social group tend to be optimistic, overestimating what the potential benefits of joining are, and underestimating the likely costs of involvement. As a result, the positive effects of community size will outweigh the possible negative effects and are likely to have a greater effect on member attraction than not letting the members know the size of the community at all (Butler, 2001). Dissecting the Critical Mass of Online Communities towards a Unified Theoretical Model Faculty of Science, Utrecht University Department of Information and Computing Sciences Author: Eric Booij (E.Booij@students.uu.nl) Supervisor: Remko Helms (r.w.helms@uu.nl)lundi 12 décembre 11 8
  9. 9. Comment ne pas grandir trop vitelundi 12 décembre 11 9
  10. 10. Comment ne pas grandir trop vite - No startup that scaled prematurely passed the 100,000 user mark. - 93% of startups that scale prematurely never break the $100k revenue per month threshold. - Startups that scale properly grow about 20 times faster than startups that scale prematurely. http://startupgenome.cc/a-deep-dive-into-the-anatomy-of-premature-scalundi 12 décembre 11 10
  11. 11. Comment ne pas grandir trop vite Customer - How to scale customer dimension prematurely: Spending too much on customer acquisition before product/ market fit Overcompensating missing product/market fit with marketing and press Spending money in poor performing acquisition channels. Stats: Inconsistent startups are 2.3 times more likely to spend more than one standard deviation above the average on customer acquisition. Examples of startups that prematurely scaled on the customer dimension: Color, Webvan, Pets.com http://startupgenome.cc/a-deep-dive-into-the-anatomy-of-premature-scalundi 12 décembre 11 11
  12. 12. Comment ne pas grandir trop vite Because the shared identity of online communities only becomes fixed at the point of maturity, Westland also advices that management does not settle for a particular scope or audience for the community until reaching the critical mass. This approach is called ”adaptive execution of strategy”, and it suggests that in order to assure the largest user base as possible, management should respond to member requests, desires, feedback and interests flexibly for as long as they can. « Do not settle for a particular scope or audience for the community until reaching the critical mass. Before that tipping point, listen and talk to your community » Dissecting the Critical Mass of Online Communities towards a Unified Theoretical Model Faculty of Science, Utrecht University Department of Information and Computing Sciences Author: Eric Booij (E.Booij@students.uu.nl) Supervisor: Remko Helms (r.w.helms@uu.nl)lundi 12 décembre 11 12
  13. 13. Comment ne pas grandir trop vite Product How to scale product dimension prematurely: Building a product without having validated problem/solution fit, Investing into scalability of the product before product/market fit, Adding lots of “nice to have” features In Kenya, though, M-Pesa reached critical mass quite quickly and has grown rapidly. Ignacio Mas and Dan Radcliffe have explained how this 2007 startup managed to get more than half of Kenyan adults using this mobile payments method that allows P2P and P2B payments and transfers. They attribute a good part of the success to the fact that M-Pesa was solving a very real problem: people didn’t have convenient ways to transfer money to each other and they needed to because of many families that « They attribute a good and rural areas were separated between cities part of the success to the fact that M-Pesa was solving a very real problem: people didn’t have convenient ways to transfer money to each other and they needed to because of many families that were separated between cities and rural areas » http://pymnts.com/blast-off-how-two-sided-platforms-ignited/lundi 12 décembre 11 13
  14. 14. Comment ne pas grandir trop vite Product How to scale product dimension prematurely: Building a product without having validated problem/solution fit, Investing into scalability of the product before product/market fit, Adding lots of “nice to have” features Stats: Inconsistent startups write 3.4 times more lines of code in the discovery phase and 2.25 times more code in efficiency stage. Inconsistent startup outsource 4-5 times as much of their product development than consistent startups. In discovery phase 60% of inconsistent startups focus on validating a product and 80% of consistent startups focus on discovering a problem space. Its widely believed amongst startup thought leaders, that successful startups succeed because they are good searchers and failed « In discovery phase 60% of inconsistent startups achieve failure by efficiently executing theon validating a product and startups focus irrelevant. 80% of consistent startups focus on Examples of startups that prematurely scaled the problemdimension: Cuil, discovering a product space » Webvan, Joost, Google Wave, Slide, 6Apart, most startups that dont find product market fit or "build something nobody wants". http://startupgenome.cc/a-deep-dive-into-the-anatomy-of-premature-scalundi 12 décembre 11 14
  15. 15. Comment ne pas grandir trop vite Once you’ve determined that the sales funnel process you’ve designed is working in a repeatable and scalable way, with a viable business model — i.e. for SaaS businesses, the cost to acquire a customer (CAC) is less than a third of customer lifetime value (LTV), and CAC is recoverable in less than 12 months — then you’re ready to scale the business. http://gigaom.com/2010/11/28/accelerate-your-startup-spend-to-scale-the-business/lundi 12 décembre 11 15
  16. 16. Évalutation de la masse critiquelundi 12 décembre 11 16
  17. 17. Évalutation de la masse critique Masse critique = 15% dune communauté. Thus the immediate goal of any Social Network is to hit that 15% saturation of the community they are targeting, but this raises the problem of how best to address Critical Mass when the target community is, for example, the population of the UK. To achieve 15% of 60,000,000 (the approximate population of the UK), 9,000,000 people need to sign up (and use regularly) before Critical Mass is achieved – a prohibitively high threshold. http://www.caci.co.uk/imblog/index.php/social-media-2/achieving-critical-mass-in-social-networks-part-one/lundi 12 décembre 11 17
  18. 18. Évalutation de la masse critique Par densité géographique? D’utilisateurs ? D’offre ? Proportion d’utilisateurs actifs (/utilisateurs inscrits) sur une plate-forme ? Par nombre de pairs ? (followers, friends, ...) Fréquence de visite par utilisateur? Nombre d’interactions moyennes entre utilisateurs ? ...lundi 12 décembre 11 18
  19. 19. Évalutation de la masse critique P = I(F x R x U x V)/(D x N) P = Perceived User Value, I = Influence, F = Frequency, R = Relevance, U = Uniqueness, V = Value, D = Distance of relationship, N = Community population size Critical Mass is achieved by increasing the numerator. http://www.caci.co.uk/imblog/index.php/social-media-2/achieving-critical-mass-in-social-networks-part-one/lundi 12 décembre 11 19
  20. 20. Évalutation de la masse critique which can be done in the following ways: 1. Leverage existing networks and relationships The closer the relationships that individuals have with others, the more frequent the communication becomes because there is more in common, more shared time together, more shared experiences and so on. Thus starting a Social Network amongst an already-strong network, where conversations are already happening regularly and relationships are strong is an important factor in achieving good content that precedes Critical Mass. 2. Restrict the topics of conversation By decreasing the scope of conversation that can be held through the Social Network, you ensure that a higher proportion of the comments are relevant to the individuals that are using it. (Ex : MySpace back to music) 3. Demonstrate the value that users achieve Showing photos, leads, connections, friends, “likes” or any other statistic is a reasonably public way not only encourages others to join to reap the same rewards, but also triggers a competitiveness amongst some users, further increasing the rate of adoption. 4. In order to be a big fish, shrink the size of the pool « The principle behind this is that at Critical Mass is essential to the success of a Social Network, but Critical Mass is not dependant on the size of the target community. (Ex : Facebook reached saturation within a single university before it spread to a second, a third each enlargement of the community, and, eventually, opened up to the rest of the university world). Only after Facebook had reached saturation within the student communities did it open its doors to the world. the saturation never dropped below the The principle behind this is that at each enlargement of the community, the saturation never dropped below the Critical Mass. Critical Mass. » http://www.caci.co.uk/imblog/index.php/social-media-2/achieving-critical-mass-in-social-networks-part-one/lundi 12 décembre 11 20
  21. 21. Trouver les clusters 3. Exploit irregular network topologies. In the last 90s, most people assumed that dating websites was a “winner take all market” and Match.com had won it, until a swath of niche competitors arose (e.g. Jdate) that succeeded because certain groups of people tend to date others from that same group. Real-life networks are often very different from the idealized, uniformly distributed networks pictured in economics textbooks. Facebook exploited the fact that social connections are highly clustered at colleges as a “beachhead” to challenge much bigger incumbents (Friendster). By finding clusters in the network smaller companies can reach critical mass within those sub-clusters and then expand beyond. « Identifier les clusters (grappes, ensembles, amas) au sein de la communauté et au delà. » Ex: Trajet Bourges - Paris sur CoVoiturage.fr Il n’existe pas de trajet de train en moins de 4 heures, alors que c’est 2 heures en voiture. Cluster de covoiturage.fr, les Paris-Berruyers http://cdixon.org/2009/08/25/six-strategies-for-overcoming-chicken-and-egg-problems/lundi 12 décembre 11 21
  22. 22. Double tranchant As  was  mentioned  earlier,  the  critical  mass  plays  the  role  of  a  double-­edged   sword  because  it  can  also  lead  to  the  death  of  a  community.  Therefore,  the   3inal  point  I  would  like  to  stress  is  that  it  is  important  not  to  focus  too  much  on   achieving  a  critical  mass,  but  also  aim  at  iterating  on  a  community’s  maturity  by   providing  a  steady  3low  of  quality  content,  adding  new  features  and  organizing   contributions  in  a  proper  manner. Dissecting the Critical Mass of Online Communities towards a Unified Theoretical Model Faculty of Science, Utrecht University Department of Information and Computing Sciences Author: Eric Booij (E.Booij@students.uu.nl) Supervisor: Remko Helms (r.w.helms@uu.nl)lundi 12 décembre 11 22
  23. 23. L’équilibre de Nash "Rappel, c’est l’équilibre de Nash, [de John Forbes Nash, ndlr] qui a donné naissance à la théorie des jeux : c’est une situation dans laquelle l’équilibre entre plusieurs joueurs est devenu stable grâce à leur collaboration et du coup, personne ne modifie sa stratégie sans affaiblir sa position actuelle" "Mais attention, plus le niveau de collaboration dans le "voisinage" est fort, plus la tentation d’agir en électron libre est forte, ce qui veut dire que pour des bénéfices importants, un seul individu peut nuire à la stabilité d’un réseau." Ex: Super Marmite et la micro-communauté dans le 15ème Des utilisateurs se servent du site en circuit fermé, jusqu’à court-circuiter le site en se contactant directement. http://www.atelier.net/fr/articles/stabilite-de-structure-dun-reseau-social-tient-taillelundi 12 décembre 11 23
  24. 24. Principes pour faire grandir sa communautélundi 12 décembre 11 24
  25. 25. Law of context Limite de 150 personnes suivies. Law of Context The law of context is a rule about the environment in which a message spreads. Small changes in the context of a message can determine whether or not it tips. Thus, these social epidemics can fail if the geographic location where they are introduced is wrong or if the current mental state of the population is not prepared for the message. Gladwell also points out the importance of small groups for the distribution of messages. He argues that the maximum number of members that can reasonably exist in a human group is one hundred and fifty. He believes that biological limitations in our brain mean that any group larger than this will automatically segment into factions and decrease efficiency. The existence of small groups helps the spread of a message because each member of the group knows every other one and thus the message can easily diffuse through the whole group. « the maximum number of members that can reasonably exist in a human group is one hundred and fifty » http://www.caci.co.uk/imblog/index.php/social-media-2/achieving-critical-mass-in-social-networks-part-one/ http://www.stanford.edu/class/symbsys205/tipping_point.htmllundi 12 décembre 11 25
  26. 26. La loi du petit nombre The law of the few is a law about the structure of our social network and how messages are passed through word of mouth. It attempts to classify three important types of people who affect the rapid spread of messages through the network. These three types of people are connectors, mavens, and salesmen. Connectors are the socialites. They know a lot of people They are people with many friends and acquaintances who spend time maintaining these connections. From the network perspective, these are the most central nodes in the social network. Gladwell devised a simple test which allowed him to determine that the number of connections a person has is measured by a power law. This means that connectors are rare in society, but they maintain many more times the number of relationships than the average person does. Because of their ability to spread a message to a huge number of people quickly, connectors are central to understanding how tipping points are reached. Mavens are the information gatherers of the social network. They know about things They evaluate the messages that come through the network and they pass their evaluations on to others, along with the messages. We can view mavens as regulators of the network because they have the power to control what flows through the network. We trust mavens, and this is especially important because their assessments can often make or break the tipping of an epidemic. Mavens drive many of our social institutions. They are the people who inform the better business bureau, regulate prices, write letters to senators, etc. in order that the rest of us dont have to. Though Gladwell does not argue this explicitly, his description of mavens suggests that mavens can be specialized in areas of expertise and thus many of us may be mavens in our particular areas of interest. Salesmen are what the name implies. They convince us to use informtion in a certain way. They are persuaders who are capable of propagating messages through the force of their character. Thus, regardless of the message content or their expertise in the area, they have a certain ability to sell which helps them move messages which may be of importance to them. This Connectors They know a lot why people ability to persuade strangers to accept a message is of salesmen are important in tipping epidemics. Mavens They know about things Salesmen They convince us to use informtion in a certain way. http://www.stanford.edu/class/symbsys205/tipping_point.htmllundi 12 décembre 11 26
  27. 27. La loi du petit nombre Anybody who’s run a hyper-local site will tell you that it takes a couple of years just to get to a point where you’ve truly got a vibrant online community. It takes even longer to turn that into a viable business. Unfortunately, for a variety of reasons, Backfence was unable to sustain itself long enough to reach that point. Post-Mortem Title: Co-Founder Potts Shares Lessons Learned from Backfence Bust Company: Backfence Author: Mark Potts | Mark Glaser http://www.chubbybrain.com/blog/startup-failure-post-mortem/lundi 12 décembre 11 27
  28. 28. Stickyness Factor The Stickiness Factor is a law about the actual informational content and packaging of a message. Connections and the personal character of the people trying to spread a message can certainly help it spread, but if the message is not worth spreading, then it is doomed to failure. The stickiness factor says that messages must have a certain character which causes them to remain active in the recipients minds. Moreover, they must be deemed worthy of being passed on. Pas seulement une histoire de taille de la communauté, mais avant tout une question de la pertinence du contenu posté et de la qualité de sa mise en scène. http://www.stanford.edu/class/symbsys205/tipping_point.htmllundi 12 décembre 11 28
  29. 29. Grassroot versus Viral From a marketing perspective, consider what would motivate people to help build Wikipedia even though contributors were offered no incentive. Contrast this with 37 Signals’ new affiliate program: if you get people to sign-up for Basecamp, you get a commission. While the strategy of 37 Signals has the potential to become viral, it likely won’t, or it will be short-lived. The TechCrunch spike is the same thing. I’d much rather build a launch strategy around a small group of uber-committed folks who simply can’t live without my product than take my chances on a one-time traffic rush, hoping some percentage sticks. « build a launch strategy around a small group of uber-committed folks who simply can’t live without my product than take my chances on a one-time traffic rush » http://ww w.leveragingideas.com/2008/09/28/difference-between-grassroots-and-viral/lundi 12 décembre 11 29
  30. 30. Grassroot versus Viral In his pop science book The Tipping Point (2000), author Malcolm Gladwell proposes that the critical mass phenomenon follows the pattern of an epidemic. According to Gladwell, epidemics occur through the accumulation of different factors: (1) the infectious agent, (2) the people who transmit the infectious agent, and (3) the environment in which the infectious agent operates. Grassroot first. Get viral then. http://www.stanford.edu/class/symbsys205/tipping_point.htmllundi 12 décembre 11 30
  31. 31. Synthèse Trouver les Connectors, Mettre en avant Mavens, les ‘avantages’ Salesmen de son réseau (loi de Metclafe) Ne pas se limiter à Identifier et une communauté animer des pré-identifiée Clusters Mettre en scène Grassroot first. les acquis/ expériences des Get viral then. Maîtriser le nombre Valoriser la membres des sujets mise en scène existants d’échange au sein contenu UGC tout autant que de la communauté la communauté Résoudre un problème plutôt que de valider un produitlundi 12 décembre 11 31
  32. 32. Synthèselundi 12 décembre 11 32
  33. 33. Atelierlundi 12 décembre 11 33
  34. 34. Atelier Formez des groupes autour de chaque service Wiithaa, DeWays, La Ruche Qui Dit Oui, Super Marmite, BuzzCar, La Mutinerie Next & CoWorking ...lundi 12 décembre 11 34
  35. 35. Points particuliers à nos services Ya-t-il des contraintes prévisibles ? Y’a-t-il des impondérables liés aux produits d’échange ? Par exemple on a faim trois fois par jour, pas prêt à faire une longue distance, ... (Super Marmite) Une voiture de ville a quatre places maximum, ... (CoVoiturage) Il faut être majeur pour payer en ligne ... Il faut avoir un PC connecté, voire un smartphone, ... ...lundi 12 décembre 11 35
  36. 36. Atelier (15 minutes) Proposition de travail • repréciser le «problème» auquel notre service répond • réouvrir les cibles potentielles (ne pas trop focaliser) • identifier les clusters (restreindre autour de grappes) et trouver des idées pour les atteindre • essayer de calculer la masse critique, en prenant les différentes hypothèses de travail des start-ups présentes • identifier le’contenu’ généré par la communauté et à valoriser sur le site • présenter aux autres et entendre les retours dexpérience sur ce qui est présenté de la part de ceux qui ont déjà testé ce genre dactions. Ou ont déjà ciblé ce genre de communautés.lundi 12 décembre 11 36
  37. 37. Atelier (15 minutes) Présentation aux autres équipeslundi 12 décembre 11 37
  38. 38. Atelier (15 minutes) Réouverture • identifier les communautés en commun entre tous les services pour les adresser collectivement • travailler sur lidée dun "login" commun (une sorte de FacebookConnect de la conso collab) (voir protocoles OpenId / OAuth2) • ou d’une associationlundi 12 décembre 11 38
  39. 39. merci Marc Chataigner Myriam Magra Antonin Leonardlundi 12 décembre 11 39

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