Delphi Tutu2 Ptapio 050218


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Delphi Tutu2 Ptapio 050218

  1. 1. What to do with Delphi data? Feedback and scenarios Case: Traffic CO 2 policy in Finland Petri Tapio P.Tapio TUTU 2, 18.2.2005
  2. 2. What will you do with the gathered data? <ul><li>Think about it before you gather it! </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Concentrate on statements or arguments? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Gathering of authentic statements/arguments or content analysis? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Quantitative data? Think about scales! </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>do not use 5-Likert (or other ordinal scale) scale unless you have to </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>use rather interval scale or relative scale </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>use rather only one or two scale types </li></ul></ul></ul>P.Tapio TUTU 2, 18.2.2005
  3. 3. Feedback from the first round may include <ul><li>Answers from the previous round + same questions again </li></ul><ul><li>Separate report and better questions </li></ul><ul><li>Each participant’s own answers related to others </li></ul>P.Tapio TUTU 2, 18.2.2005
  4. 4. Feedback in the case P.Tapio TUTU 2, 18.2.2005
  5. 5. Arguments in the case… <ul><li>Arguments for the upper curves </li></ul><ul><ul><li>public transport should be supported without restricting passenger car traffic </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>the freedom for private car use should not be restricted </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>the growth of CO 2 emissions can be stopped with technical development </li></ul></ul>P.Tapio TUTU 2, 18.2.2005
  6. 6. … Arguments 2… <ul><li>Arguments for the middle curves </li></ul><ul><ul><li>the growth potential of passenger car traffic should be guided towards soft modes, public transport and telecommunications </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>urban infill is preferable to reduce the need for traffic </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>traffic is a mean, not an end itself, economy and communication should be handled with low need for traffic </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>economic growth should be achieved by electronic industry and services, which would reduce the growth rate of freight transport in relation to GDP </li></ul></ul>P.Tapio TUTU 2, 18.2.2005
  7. 7. … Arguments 3 <ul><li>Arguments for the lower curves </li></ul><ul><ul><li>telecommunications will and should substitute physical traffic </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>local more non-material economy is preferable </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>railroads should be emphasised in both passenger traffic and freight transport </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>CO 2 emissions should be reduced 60-80% from today’s level to stop climate change, which is not possible without also reducing road traffic volume </li></ul></ul>P.Tapio TUTU 2, 18.2.2005
  8. 8. Cluster analysis <ul><li>grouping the responses to clusters </li></ul><ul><li>preferable as well as probable futures of the three key variables </li></ul><ul><ul><li>GDP, road traffic volume, CO 2 emissions from road traffic </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Qualitative content analysis </li></ul><ul><li>are the arguments for the responses within a cluster similar? </li></ul>P.Tapio TUTU 2, 18.2.2005
  9. 9. <ul><li>Rescaled Distance Cluster Combine </li></ul><ul><li>0 5 10 15 20 25 </li></ul><ul><li>Organisation +---------+---------+--------+--------+--------+ </li></ul><ul><li>pre=preferable </li></ul><ul><li>sty pro -+-----+ pro=probable </li></ul><ul><li>sty pre -+ | </li></ul><ul><li>akt pro -------+-------+ </li></ul><ul><li>dodo pro -----+-+ | </li></ul><ul><li>rhk pro -----+ | </li></ul><ul><li>ym pro ---+---+ +---------+ </li></ul><ul><li>rhk pre ---+ | | | </li></ul><ul><li>ytv* pro -+-+ | | | </li></ul><ul><li>tl pro -+ +-+ +-------+ | </li></ul><ul><li>lm pro -+-+ | | | </li></ul><ul><li>lm pre -+ | | | </li></ul><ul><li>lal pro ---+-+-+ +---------------+ </li></ul><ul><li>al pro ---+ | | | </li></ul><ul><li>akt pre -----+ | | </li></ul><ul><li>lili pro ---+-+ | | </li></ul><ul><li>al pre ---+ +---+ | | </li></ul><ul><li>ene pro -----+ | | | </li></ul><ul><li>lal pre ---+-+ +---------------+ | </li></ul><ul><li>tl pre ---+ +-+ | | </li></ul><ul><li>ym pre -----+ +-+ | </li></ul><ul><li>ytv* pre -------+ | </li></ul><ul><li>dodo pre ---+-------+ | </li></ul><ul><li>ene pre ---+ +-----------------------------+ </li></ul><ul><li>lili pre -----------+ </li></ul>P.Tapio TUTU 2, 18.2.2005
  10. 10. <ul><li>Cluster 1 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>BAU plus </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Cluster 2 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Ecological modernisation </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Cluster 3 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Modest structural change </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Cluster 4 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Strong structural change </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Cluster 5 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Deep ecology </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Cluster 6 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Steady state economy </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Probable: STY, AKT, DODO, RHK </li></ul><ul><li>Preferable: STY </li></ul><ul><li>Probable: YM, YTV*, TL, LM, LAL, AL </li></ul><ul><li>Preferable: LM, RHK, AKT </li></ul><ul><li>Probable: LILI, ENE </li></ul><ul><li>Preferable: AL </li></ul><ul><li>Probable: - </li></ul><ul><li>Preferable: LAL, TL, YM, YTV* </li></ul><ul><li>Probable: - </li></ul><ul><li>Preferable: DODO, ENE </li></ul><ul><li>Probable: - </li></ul><ul><li>Preferable: LILI </li></ul>P.Tapio TUTU 2, 18.2.2005
  11. 11. Should you really buy our method? P.Tapio TUTU 2, 18.2.2005
  12. 12. Argumentative interviews <ul><li>The role of the interviewer may be </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Neutral </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Sympathetic </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Argumentative </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Argumentative interviews </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The researcher gives counterarguments and further questions to the interviewee’s statements </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The aim is to produce deeper high quality arguments to make the interviewees learn from each other </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>… and to make the scenarios more precise and consistent </li></ul></ul><ul><li>What kind of problems does this approach generate? </li></ul><ul><li>What are the ways to ameliorate the problems? </li></ul>P.Tapio TUTU 2, 18.2.2005
  13. 13. Argumentative interviews in round 2: Four ways to avoid bias <ul><li>Tell them your argumentative role </li></ul><ul><li>Externalise yourself from the arguments </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Rhetorically ”a counterargument has been posed that” </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Think hypothetically - do not try to prove anything </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Respect them and be curious - they may think differently but they do think </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Use systematically first round arguments </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Present arguments for upper curves and lower curves </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Concentrate on rational arguments </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Dismiss jokes or emotional statements </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>” Dig into their heads” </li></ul></ul>P.Tapio TUTU 2, 18.2.2005
  14. 14. Examples of personal bias <ul><li>Some participants knew the interviewer’s </li></ul><ul><li>real opinions </li></ul><ul><ul><li>...or thought they knew </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Two interviewees were not dealt with severely enough </li></ul><ul><ul><li>familiarity with the person </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>the interviewer did not manage to interrupt the interviewee </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Sometimes the interviewer did participate in non-rational debate </li></ul><ul><ul><li>jokes </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>being too enthusiasted in some arguments </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Concentration is essential! </li></ul>P.Tapio TUTU 2, 18.2.2005
  15. 15. Conclusions <ul><li>Cluster analysis surprises </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Who give similar and different responses? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Similar quantitative statements sometimes have different qualitative arguments </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Ameliorate with logical analysis, empirical knowledge and common sence </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Argumentative role of the interviewer induces more in-depth arguments </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Not applicabile to lay people? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>The method does not produce consistency from non-consistency… </li></ul><ul><ul><li>… but it reduces oversimplification and helps in interpretation </li></ul></ul>P.Tapio TUTU 2, 18.2.2005
  16. 16. Reference <ul><li>Tapio, P. 2003. Disaggregative Policy Delphi: Using cluster analysis as a tool for systematic scenario formation, </li></ul><ul><li>Technological Forecasting and Social Change 70(1): 83-101. </li></ul>P.Tapio TUTU 2, 18.2.2005