"The myth of Certainty - Is implementation a naughty word?" by Steve Bell

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Steve Bell's closing keynote at the 1st European Lean IT Summit held in Paris in October 2011.

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"The myth of Certainty - Is implementation a naughty word?" by Steve Bell

  1. 1. Copyright © Institut Lean France 2011 The Myth of Certainty Is Implementation a naughty word? Steve BellCopyright 2011 Steven C. Bell
  2. 2. Copyright © Institut Lean France 20112006 2010 2012 Steve Bell SteveB@LeanITStrategies.com 2
  3. 3. Copyright © Institut Lean France 2011 “The Big Ball of Mud” How to Untangle Enterprise IT?The Myth of Certainty, Steve Bell 3
  4. 4. Copyright © Institut Lean France 2011 Detroit 1983 Auto executives visit Japan on a “discovery tour”The Myth of Certainty, Steve Bell 4
  5. 5. Copyright © Institut Lean France 2011“There were no inventories in any of the plants. I’ve been in manufacturing operations for almost thirty years and I can tell you those were not real plants. They had clearly been staged for our tour.” Detroit Auto ExecutiveSource: Peter Senge, The Fifth Discipline 5
  6. 6. Copyright © Institut Lean France 2011 Mental Models The problems with mental models arise when they become implicit – when they exist below the level of our awareness.Source: Peter Senge, The Fifth Discipline 6
  7. 7. Copyright © Institut Lean France 2011 Could we have a dysfunctional mental model of IT and we don’t even know it?The Myth of Certainty, Steve Bell 7
  8. 8. Copyright © Institut Lean France 2011Caption: “Shouldn’t we wait to see what the other team does?” Source: Apriso Software, Inc. 8
  9. 9. Copyright © Institut Lean France 2011 The Challenge Enterprise IT is: Fast Complex Competitive Disruptive And the future of many companies and industries is at stakeThe Myth of Certainty, Steve Bell 9
  10. 10. Copyright © Institut Lean France 2011 Enterprise IT Disruptors• IT Consumerization - pace of expected change• Smart, location/context aware, mobile devices The security challenges they create The useful information they produce• Social networking – new relationships with our customers – they’re informed and in charge• The cloud and EaaS (Everything as a Service)The Myth of Certainty, Steve Bell 10
  11. 11. Copyright © Institut Lean France 2011 The future is already here — its just not very evenly distributed William GibsonSource: Kent Beck, Software G Forces 11
  12. 12. Copyright © Institut Lean France 2011 Can our traditional approach to Enterprise IT survive?The Myth of Certainty, Steve Bell 12
  13. 13. Copyright © Institut Lean France 2011 Traditional IT IT Related product/service development CIO Development Operations Support AdvisoryPresentation title- Speaker Name 13
  14. 14. Copyright © Institut Lean France 2011 IT Management Governance, Portfolio Management, Enterprise-wide Finance, Performance Dashboards, , Application Applications Strategy Deployment, Knowledge (ERP, CRM, SCM, etc) What Management Business Enterprise is Business Process Management Integration and Middleware Intelligence this Data and Integration Performance Management Lean Software Development thing (Agile and Scrum) called DevOps “IT”? Infrastructure IT Operations (hosting, infrastructure, security, telecom, etc) IT Service Management Business Facing IT Organization Facing (outward) (inward)The Myth of Certainty, Steve Bell 14
  15. 15. Copyright © Institut Lean France 2011 Focus for IT Expenditure and Investment1. Run: Keeping the lights on, operations2. Grow: Doing new stuff to grow revenue through new customers, products, and markets3. Transform: Doing radically new, disruptive stuff that changes markets and creates competitive advantageSource: A Simple Framework to Translate IT Benefits into Business Value 15Impact, R. Hunter et al, Gartner Research
  16. 16. Copyright © Institut Lean France 2011 Transformation 20% Grow and Transform Innovation 50% Grow and Transform 80% Keeping 50% Lights Operational Keeping On Excellence Lights OnThe Myth of Certainty, Steve Bell 16
  17. 17. Copyright © Institut Lean France 2011 Doing new things is RISKYThe Myth of Certainty, Steve Bell 17
  18. 18. Copyright © Institut Lean France 2011 What do we want in a leader?The Myth of Certainty, Steve Bell 18
  19. 19. Copyright © Institut Lean France 2011The Myth of Certainty, Steve Bell 19
  20. 20. Copyright © Institut Lean France 2011 Incompetence irritates me Overconfidence frightens me Malcolm Gladwell Expert FailureThe Myth of Certainty, Steve Bell 20
  21. 21. Copyright © Institut Lean France 2011 What is the opposite of overconfidence? Humility is demonstrated by a willingness to learnThe Myth of Certainty, Steve Bell 21
  22. 22. Copyright © Institut Lean France 2011 •Standard formula is essential •Strict adherence to formula produces quality Simple results every time Baking a cake •No particular expertise required •Standard formulae are necessary, clarity of cause and effect •Expertise also important since many variables Sending a rocket Complicated and interdependencies to the moon •High degree of outcome certainty, diagnosis and prognosis are often accurate •Systems have many variables and interactions so expertise is necessary but not sufficient •Multivariate causes, gradual onset of problems over time, diagnosis and prognosis are often Complex obscure Raising a child •Systems are adaptive, respond to change in unpredictable ways, so rational assumptions do not always applySource: Study by the Canadian Healthcare System Brenda Zimmerman, York University Sholom Glouberman, University of Toronto 22
  23. 23. Copyright © Institut Lean France 2011 •Standard formula is essential •Strict adherence to formula produces quality Simple results every time Baking a cake •No particular expertise required Deterministic •Standard formulae are necessary, clarity of cause and effect (rules-based) •Expertise also important since many variables Sending a rocketComplicated and interdependencies to the moon •High degree of outcome certainty, diagnosis and prognosis are often accurate •Systems have many variables and interactions so expertise is necessary but not sufficient •Multivariate causes, gradual onset of problems Complex obscure Behavioral over time, diagnosis and prognosis are often Raising a child •Systems are adaptive, respond to change in unpredictable ways, so rational assumptions do not always apply 23
  24. 24. Copyright © Institut Lean France 2011 Implementation ThinkingSource: Mike Rother, Toyota Kata 24
  25. 25. Copyright © Institut Lean France 2011 "Having an implementation orientation actually impedes our organizations progress and the development of peoples capabilities. The way from where we are to where we want to be next is a gray zone full of unforseeable obstacles, problems and issues that we can only discover along the way. The best we can do is to know the approach, the means, we can utilize for dealing with the unclear path to a new desired condition [the lean problem solving approach] not what the content and steps of our actions- the solutions - will be. If someone claims certainty about the steps that will be implemented to reach the desired destination, that should be a red flag to us.“Source: Mike Rother, Toyota Kata 25
  26. 26. Copyright © Institut Lean France 2011 Transformative ThinkingSource: Mike Rother, Toyota Kata 26
  27. 27. Copyright © Institut Lean France 2011 What obstacles are in our path to Lean IT transformation? 20% Grow and Transform Innovation 50% Grow and Transform 80% Keeping 50% Lights Operational Keeping On Excellence Lights OnThe Myth of Certainty, Steve Bell 27
  28. 28. Copyright © Institut Lean France 2011 The “G Word” Requiring an “accurate”Governance estimate at the beginning of a project can dramatically increase project risk instead of decrease it as intended. Scott Ambler and Per Kroll, IBM By attempting to artificially create certainty we create more risk . . . These projects that are “designed to fail”Source: Dreamworks 28
  29. 29. Copyright © Institut Lean France 2011 What’s Wrong with Traditional IT Governance?• Slow and bureaucratic• Disconnected from the dynamic world, resisting rapid change, stifling creativity, innovation, and agility• Forces change and decision making into slow periodic cycles, often tied to the annual budget• Emphasizes resource utilization and promotes large projects that attract the most attention during the funding process• It is often a “game” to be played, to advance special interests, encouraging a project “black market”• Tactical tradeoff decisions and short-term interventions increase instability and variation in the long runThe Myth of Certainty, Steve Bell 29
  30. 30. Copyright © Institut Lean France 2011 Agile and Lean Drinking from the same source • Iteration speed • Small batch size • Level schedule • Quality: test early and often • Engagement • Adaptive learningThe Myth of Certainty, Steve Bell 30
  31. 31. Copyright © Institut Lean France 2011 How can Lean Thinking add value? “A Lean organization optimizes the whole value stream, from the time it receives an order to address a customer need until software is deployed and the need is addressed. If an organization focuses on optimizing something less than the entire value stream, we can just about guarantee that the overall value stream will suffer.” Mary and Tom Poppendieck Implementing Lean Software DevelopmentThe Myth of Certainty, Steve Bell 31
  32. 32. Copyright © Institut Lean France 2011 How can Lean Thinking add value? “Although Scrum may help teams isolate themselves from dysfunction in the organization (which can lead to limited improvement), it is better for them to help the organization become more functional.” Shalloway, Beaver & Trott Lean-Agile Software DevelopmentThe Myth of Certainty, Steve Bell 32
  33. 33. Copyright © Institut Lean France 2011 How can Lean Thinking add value? The division between projects and operations has become a serious constraint both on the ability of businesses to get new functionality to market faster and, ironically, on the ability of IT to maintain stable, highly available, high-quality systems and services. Jez Humble and Joanne Molesky Why Enterprises Must Adopt DevOps to Enable Continuous DeliveryThe Myth of Certainty, Steve Bell 33
  34. 34. Copyright © Institut Lean France 2011 Continuous Concept to Delivery Lifecycle Pull and Flow Continuous Innovation Continuous ImprovementThe Myth of Certainty, Steve Bell 34
  35. 35. Copyright © Institut Lean France 2011Thank you to the entire Lean IT Community! 35

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