regional scenario planning | Alex Joyce

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  • The future will not be like the past, or even the present\nThere is a lot we know:\nBaby boomers, immigrants and young professionals are changing urban markets\nThere is also a lot of uncertainty to prepare for:\nClimate change, economic and political uncertainty\n
  • The future will not be like the past, or even the present\nThere is a lot we know:\nBaby boomers, immigrants and young professionals are changing urban markets\nThere is also a lot of uncertainty to prepare for:\nClimate change, economic and political uncertainty\n
  • The future will not be like the past, or even the present\nThere is a lot we know:\nBaby boomers, immigrants and young professionals are changing urban markets\nThere is also a lot of uncertainty to prepare for:\nClimate change, economic and political uncertainty\n
  • Older baby boomers (55-64) will constitute a senior population unprecedented in size;\nYounger boomers (46-54) many of whom won’t be able to sell their current suburban homes to move to new jobs;\nGeneration Y (late teens-early 30s), which may be renting housing far longer than did past generations; and\nImmigrants and their children, who may want to move to suburbs but may be priced out even after the current drop in prices.\n
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  • The shift we are experiencing is driven by several factors, including smaller household sizes – basically, a decease in family size. \n
  • So we can see this in greater detail here – this is data from the real estate research firm RCLCO – and it show the change in households between 1980 and 2000 and we see the greatest increase in the number of one person households, which grew by 85%. This is followed by households occupied by people that are married without children and then single women with children. The classic household – people married with children – grew the least. \n
  • What we are looking at here is the difference between existing stock and projected demand for three housing types: (1) Attached; aparments, lofts, condominiums, etc; (2) small lot single family; and (3) large lot single family. \n
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  • Hottest March on record for most of the country\n
  • Global climate change\n
  • US housing crash – financial crisis – no more free money\n
  • European debt crisis – global economic uncertainty\n
  • Arab Spring – political stability – fuel supply and dependency\n
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  • Been through the same process of choosing in Provo, working toward a long-term vision\nWhat’s feasible in the shorter term?\n
  • Been through the same process of choosing in Provo, working toward a long-term vision\nWhat’s feasible in the shorter term?\n
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  • That means an increase in transit trips – about 5-6ooo tran\nImprove air quality,\nSpend less time in traffic\nMore time for doing what matters to us\n
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  • We’ve explored what these modeled scenarios might look like on the ground.\n\nThe station, looking north, imagining significant job growth in the area…\n
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  • Standing on the steps of the historic Rio Grande Depot looking toward the new station, imagining a festival street…\n
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  • Just west of the Gateway, imagine new urban neighborhoods, think family friendly in an urban way\n
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  • -Not all amenities are created equal – bring a suburban area up to fully amentized… add nuance.\n
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  • regional scenario planning | Alex Joyce

    1. 1. REGIONAL SCENARIOPLANNING: PROVENRESULTSAlex Joyce // Fregonese Associates
    2. 2. The future will not be like the past, nor the present
    3. 3. The future will not be like the past, nor the present
    4. 4. The future will not be like the past, nor the present
    5. 5. The future will not be like the past, nor the present
    6. 6. Shrinking Household Size
    7. 7. Single Person Households Leading the Way85% growth in households without children
    8. 8. Changing Consumer Preferences Dr. Arthur C. Nelson, University of Utah
    9. 9. SCENARIOS preparing our regions for resilience in the face of uncertainty
    10. 10. Greenfield on the Beltway
    11. 11. Freewheeling Around
    12. 12. New Urbanist Small Towns
    13. 13. A Networked Metropolis
    14. 14. Can Scenario PlanningReally Make Change? Influence spending  RTP: regional transit and transportation project priority Influence local development regs  Market-based zoning, form- based code Lead to direct economic development  Oregon metal works – only streetcar manufacturer in country Influence regional & local leaders  Build long term champions who ensure implementation
    15. 15. WASATCH FRONT:WASATCH CHOICES
    16. 16. The Wasatch Front The region was facing  Enormous future growth  Inadequate transportation - Doubling of VMT  Poor air quality increasing asthma and
    17. 17. Worst Things About UtahPercent Who Mention First or Second Most Important Trasportation 20 Infrastructure 13 Criminal Activity 12 Air Quality 11 Income Level 10 Political Ideology 7 LDS Church 7 Cost of Living 6 Population Growth 6 Taxes 5 0 10 20 30 40
    18. 18. Scenario ATrends Continue Urban area doubles Density drops  84% single family Fewer people with access to transit Highest new infrastructure
    19. 19. Scenario CMarket Demand Urban area increases by 25% Housing balanced with future market demand Significantly more people within walking distance to transit
    20. 20. Scenario DAggressive Infill Urban area increases by 15%  Most ag land preservation 60% of new growth accommodated through infill  Portland Metro – 35% Most people within walking distance to transit Significant transit investment  2nd lowest infrastructure costs
    21. 21. Envision Utah: The region is blazing a new path – a well connected region Salt Lake City is investing more, per capita, in new public transit than any other metro area in the country Currently focused on
    22. 22. Transit Ridership Investing in a Full Range of transit options  Heavy rail, Light Rail, Streetcar, BRT, Express bus, Local Bus Transit ridership up 21% in 3rd quarter of 2012 Rail up 10.7%
    23. 23. Bicycling CultureTaking Hold Comprehensive bicycle plan and investment commitment followed Regional Vision Up 27% between 2010-2011 NYC only up 14% in same time
    24. 24. Small-Scale ImplementationScenarios: Regional rail and BRT are coming How to leverage investment in transit and urban amenities to catalyze private investment
    25. 25. Small-Scale ImplementationScenarios: Regional rail and BRT are coming How to leverage investment in transit and urban amenities to catalyze private investment
    26. 26. Scenario C:Live| Play|• Residential throughout• Neighborhood: housing, services, grocery, school• Playgrounds and playfields• Office/retail/ residential mix on major streets• Family friendly in an
    27. 27. Depot District TransitTrips
    28. 28. Depot District Transit TripsImprove air quality, less time in traffic, more time doing what we enjoy
    29. 29. Prototypes Vary in Feasibility Main Street Retail 6+ StoryTownhomesCompact 3- and 4- Single Family story mixed-use Most Feasible Most
    30. 30. Optimize Development Use ROI analysis to make regulations market feasible Experiment with:  Height  Parking requirements / type  Unit sizes  Landscaping requirements  Etc.
    31. 31. Suburban Parking vs. Urban ParkingStandards Suburban Parking Standards (2/uni Urban Parking Standards (1/unit) 3-story Garden Townhom works at Apts and es and urban Cottage Compact parking Homes Single standards Family
    32. 32. Scenario A:Work | Live | Play
    33. 33. Scenario A:Work | Live | Play
    34. 34. Scenario A:Work | Live | Play
    35. 35. Scenario B:Play| Live | Work
    36. 36. Scenario B:Play| Live | Work
    37. 37. Scenario B:Play| Live | Work
    38. 38. Scenario C:Live| Play|
    39. 39. Scenario C:Live| Play|
    40. 40. Scenario C:Live| Play|
    41. 41. PORTLAND METRO:2040 GROWTH
    42. 42. Trends Continue – Significant Outward Expansion / Farm Loss
    43. 43. Concept A – Growth at Urban Edge
    44. 44. Concept B – All in on Infill
    45. 45. Concept C – New Compact Communities
    46. 46. The 2040 Growth Concept The 2040 Growth Concept results in: Less Congestion Less Transportation investment More walk, bike, and transit trips What Makes 2040 Work  Mixed use design  Density in proximity to commerce and transit  Mixed age and income neighborhoods
    47. 47. The 2040 Growth Concept Regional Centers Town Centers Station Communities Main Streets Boulevards Transit Corridors Neighborhood Industrial Sanctuaries Open Spaces
    48. 48. 15 Years Later:2040 Growth Concept is Still the Regional
    49. 49. Redevelopment is a major way to Currently 35% - Far exceeding goal of 20%100% 29% 38% 75% 50% 25% 0% Households Employment New Construction Redevelopment 3-D Column 3 3-D Column 4
    50. 50. Portland VMT Achieving Kyoto Protocol Greenhouse Gas Reduction targets
    51. 51. Biking: Up over 400% since
    52. 52. Regional Transit Network
    53. 53. Relationship of Amenity and Hedonic pricing study A complete amenity package  Increases desirability  Broadens housing demand  Increases achievable rents & sales prices Results in expanded
    54. 54. Imagining highly amenitizedParks and OpenSpaceTransitCommercialAmenitiesTraffic CalmingWalkabilityBicycleConnectivity
    55. 55. Competitiveness of Place: 80% MHI Young Family (25-35) $43,679 Project assistant and retail assistant TOD Housing $1,092 month/rent (63% likelihood) Segment $142,000 purchase (37% likelihood) Demand TOD Capture TOD Capture Other Preference Other Preference
    56. 56. Development Feasibility SpectrumChangeswith Increase in Desirability What Can Be Built?Today’s Rents 10% Increase in 20% Increase in& Sales Prices Average Rent Average Rent
    57. 57. Three Scenarios Examine “Bang for Public Investment Buck” 100% amenity level 90% amenity level80% amenitylevel
    58. 58. St. Johns Residential Market
    59. 59. Prototypical developments in St. 3-story townhomes (one block off 3-story condos (near Willamette River) Lombard)
    60. 60. Downtown St Johns: Existing
    61. 61. Downtown St Johns: 100% Amenitized
    62. 62. THANK YOUAlex Joyce // alex@frego.com

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