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neighborhood scenario planning | Eliot Allen

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neighborhood scenario planning | Eliot Allen

  1. 1. Scenario Planning Where It Gets Real: NeighborhoodsEliot Allen LEED AP-ND, CNU-A Criterion Planners Portland, Oregon eliot@crit.com April 16, 2012
  2. 2. INDEX Scenario Planning Applications
  3. 3. What is Where What are Where Are we Howimportant are we our do we want taking the . are we to us? now? options? to go? right steps? doing?
  4. 4. Birmingham U.S. 11 Neighborhoods
  5. 5. Neighborhood Defined• Perry 1927: quarter-mile radius/125 ac• LEED-ND up to 320 acres• Half-mile radius = 500 acres• Social/economic boundaries Neighborhood Processes Using Scenarios • Land-use/transportation plan updates • Transit station area development • Brownfield redevelopment • EIR/EIS alternatives • Eco-districts • Regional centers/corridors implementation • California: SB 375 Sustainable Communities
  6. 6. Simplified Scenario Planning Steps Existing Indicator Values Indicator Conditions Goal Setting Rating & Survey Selection SWOT Weightingand driving informs user-definedforces success Build- Create Design/ Evaluate Impleme Out Scenario Assemble & Iterate nt&or other • buildings 3 to 4 -reference • land-use incrementalcase • urban design consistency • circulation - update • infrastructure benchmarks
  7. 7. Scenario Planning Distilled
  8. 8. Designing a Cool Spot in Tampa Tampa Heights Central Plaza Scenarios 1 8 DU/ac 2 6 DU/ac 42 Emp/ac 3 5 Emp/ac Multi-family Mixed retail/office/res Mixed retail/res Parking garage 3 5 DU/ac 4 9 DU/ac 26 Emp/ac 4 0 Emp/ac
  9. 9. CO2 lbs/capita/yr 1 2 3 4 Scenarios Cool Spot Footprints
  10. 10. Scenario Land Geographies & DataHouse-hold Neighborhoo Floor Building d Job boundary • Municipality • Parcel Census Unincorporated units • County • Subregion Job Land TAZ • Region
  11. 11. Scenario Transportation GeographiesNeighborhood-scaleprerequisite:walk, bike, transit, autonetworks
  12. 12. Built Environment Components (abbreviated list)• Site/building features, land-use types, place types.• Multi-modal circulation networks: walk, bike, transit, auto; and parking.• User-defined metrics for evaluating scenario performance & rankingscenarios by goal achievement.• Existing conditions SWOT analysis: Strengths, Weaknesses,Opportunities, Threats – informs goal setting & scenario assembly.• ‘Susceptibility to change’ screening: spatial focus.• Real estate development feasibility; infrastructure assessment;sustainability evaluation.
  13. 13. Scenario Planning ToolsLand-use Transportation INDEX Travel demand/traffic impact models CommunityViz F&P Quick Response Tools ET LEED-ND Connections Tool SmartPlan MIT Urban Network Toolbox SIMM OpenTripPlanner RapidFire/Uftprint Real estate development LUCIS Argus Developer What If UrbanSimLandscape/ecology Pencil Out I-Tree Procedural 3D visualization Vista UrbanVision (w/ dynamic transp) CityGreen CityEngine
  14. 14. Users DefineSuccess
  15. 15. ExistingConditions SWOT’ed With User Values
  16. 16. Weymouth, MA Naval Base Reuse Plan
  17. 17. SpatialIndicator Mapping Diagnostics:Housing Proximity to Housing Proximity toAmenity (grocery) Transit Stops
  18. 18. Optimizing Development Feasibility Paul Waddell UrbanSim
  19. 19. Focusing on Susceptibility to Change Atlanta Midtown Alliance
  20. 20. Sustainability Scenarios at a Neighborhood-Scale • EarthCraft Communities • Enterprise Green Communities • Envision Infrastructure Neighborhood/ • Great Neighborhoods community rating • GreenLITES systems: • GreenTRIP - Expert vetted. • LEED for Neighborhood Development - Menus of measures. • SITES - Assemble local packages/ • STAR Community Index scenarios. - Iterate/evaluate. - Calif: SB 375 SCS.
  21. 21. LEED-ND Scenarios:Dial-In Silver to Platinum• Density• Use mix• Jobs/housing balance• Housing diversity/affordability• Pedestrian network• Bicycle network• Transit service• Street network• Building form & function• Visitability & universal design• Green building performance• Site disturbance• Climate integration• Infrastructure efficiency
  22. 22. LEED-ND Low Carbon Totals 63 ND Points Gold Certificatio n & 30% CO2 Reduction 12,000 CO2 lbs/capita/ year avoided
  23. 23. Criterion PlannersArizona State University UrbanResearch Lab
  24. 24. Criterion PlannersArizona State University UrbanResearch Lab
  25. 25. Cool New Tools for• Portland Metro Context Scenarios• City of Portland PDX BikeShare• US EPA Smart Location Database & Impervious Surface Growth Model• US EDA Triple Bottom Line Tool (beta now open)• USGBC RegGIS
  26. 26. Online Neighborhood Dashboard: Portland Metro Context
  27. 27. PDX BikeShare: Crowd-Sourced Scenarios OpenPlans.org
  28. 28. U.S. EPA • Smart Location Database • Impervious Surface Growth ModelSLD ISGM
  29. 29. U.S. EDA
  30. 30. INDEX RegGIS use case: what portions of a Minneapolis transit corridormerit heat island reduction & stormwater mgmt?
  31. 31. INDEX RegGIS use case: what portions of a Minneapolis transit corridormerit heat island reduction & stormwater mgmt?
  32. 32. INDEX RegGIS use case: what portions of a Minneapolis transit corridormerit heat island reduction & stormwater mgmt?
  33. 33. 1. Locate Floodplains
  34. 34. 1. Locate Floodplains 2. Buffer Floodplains
  35. 35. 1. Locate Floodplains 3. Locate Wetlands 2. Buffer Floodplains
  36. 36. 1. Locate Floodplains 3. Locate Wetlands 2. Buffer Floodplains 4. Buffer Wetlands
  37. 37. 1. Locate Floodplains 3. Locate Wetlands 5. Union Buffered Floodplains 2. Buffer Floodplains and Wetlands 4. Buffer Wetlands
  38. 38. 1. Locate Floodplains 3. Locate Wetlands 5. Union Buffered Floodplains 2. Buffer Floodplains and Wetlands 4. Buffer Wetlands6. Locate Tree Canopy
  39. 39. 1. Locate Floodplains 3. Locate Wetlands 5. Union Buffered Floodplains 2. Buffer Floodplains and Wetlands 4. Buffer Wetlands6. Locate Tree Canopy from 7. Subtract Tree CanopyUnioned Floodplains and Wetlands
  40. 40. 1. Locate Floodplains 3. Locate Wetlands 5. Union Buffered Floodplains 2. Buffer Floodplains and Wetlands 4. Buffer Wetlands6. Locate Tree Canopy from 7. Subtract Tree Canopy 8. Locate Impervious SurfacesUnioned Floodplains and Wetlands
  41. 41. 1. Locate Floodplains 3. Locate Wetlands 5. Union Buffered Floodplains 2. Buffer Floodplains and Wetlands 4. Buffer Wetlands6. Locate Tree Canopy from 7. Subtract Tree Canopy 8. Intersect Impervious Surfaces 9. Locate Impervious SurfacesUnioned Floodplains and Wetlands
  42. 42. 1. Locate Floodplains 3. Locate Wetlands 5. Union Buffered Floodplains 2. Buffer Floodplains and Wetlands 4. Buffer Wetlands10. Apply LEED-ND credits for heat islands and stormwater mgmt. 6. Locate Tree Canopy from 7. Subtract Tree Canopy 8. Intersect Impervious Surfaces 9. Locate Impervious Surfaces Unioned Floodplains and Wetlands
  43. 43. FavoriteNeighborhood Planning References
  44. 44. Mechanics of Tool-SupportedScenario Planning
  45. 45. Scenario Planning Going Forward• More web software/mobile apps, less desktop/expert based.• Open source GIS overtakes ESRI in innovation/local markets.• BIM (bldg info models) linked dynamically with GIS/visualization toolsand analytics.• Greater availability of more reliable national datasets at smaller scales.• Hyper feedback from engagement tools/social media; too much of agood thing?• Expanded use of scenarios, especially short term problem solving,leads to greater uptake by practitioners/citizens.

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