The Silver Fern Report: Boulder Real Estate Analysis

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The March 2010 Client Research Presentation

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The Silver Fern Report: Boulder Real Estate Analysis

  1. 1. THE SILVER FERN REPORT: Boulder An analysis of real estate market conditions in Boulder, Colorado
  2. 2. Real Estate Advisers Boulder, Colorado Phone: 303 586 1241 www.silverfernhomes.com Make a Smarter Real Estate Decision
  3. 3. Legal <ul><li>This presentation was prepared exclusively for the benefit and use of the Silver Fern Homes clients in order to assist their study of real estate market conditions. This presentation is for discussion purposes only and is incomplete without an in-person, oral presentation by Silver Fern Homes. This presentation reflects our views of prevailing market conditions on this date, which are subject to change. Silver Fern Homes recommends careful and complete due diligence before buying or selling real estate or other investments. The following presentation is not to be construed as legal, tax, or investment advice. Silver Fern Homes will not be held liable for investment decisions derived from this presentation. Previous market performance is not a guarantee of future results and there is financial risk associated with buying or selling property. Consult with your financial, legal, and real estate advisers before making an investment decision. The data in this presentation was obtained by private and public sources, without independent verification. </li></ul>
  4. 4. The Team <ul><li>Osman Parvez: Co-Founder and Associate Broker. Osman’s professional experience includes investment analysis, real estate development, and investment banking. He also loves being in the wilderness and has research experience studying the impacts of climate change. Osman holds an MBA in finance and a B.S. in Biology </li></ul><ul><li>Email: [email_address] ph: 303.746.6896 </li></ul><ul><li>Dallice Tylee: Co-Founder and Managing Broker. She holds a GRI and is a Certified Negotiation Expert, EcoBroker, and Accredited Staging Professional. A native of New Zealand, Dallice's attention to detail and thorough, disciplined approach comes from previous professional experiences in health sciences. She is passionate about interior design and landscaping. </li></ul><ul><li>Email: [email_address] ph: 303.746.6765 </li></ul><ul><li>Mia DeLong: Associate Broker. Mia loves historic home restoration and a creative eye for home improvement. She has six years of real estate experience and brings expertise from her experience in product management in the service industries. She holds a BBA in Marketing from UW-Wisconsin and her interests include running, biking, cooking, reading and photography. </li></ul><ul><li>Email: [email_address] ph: 303.717.2241 </li></ul><ul><li>Crystal Callipari: Associate Broker. Crystal’s experience as a real estate investor and home builder provides unique insight on buying, selling and marketing strategies. Prior to joining Silver Fern, she was a frequent client of the firm, giving her perspective on the quality of service clients should expect from their broker. Crystal has lived in Colorado for over 13 years with her husband. She has two grade school aged children, one of whom is a competitive figure skater and the other a black belt in martial arts. </li></ul><ul><li>Email: [email_address] ph: 720.841.2701 </li></ul><ul><li>Robbin Merta: Administrative Assistant. She has a B.F.A. in graphic design, experience owning several small businesses, and is studying for her Realtor's license. Her strong interest and experience in home renovation, both personally and professionally, is a practical complement to the Silver Fern team. She is a stained glass artist who also enjoys volleyball, cooking and martial arts. </li></ul><ul><li>Email: [email_address] ph: 303.993.6139 </li></ul>
  5. 5. Table of Contents <ul><li>Notable Sales </li></ul><ul><li>Inventory and Sales Volume </li></ul><ul><li>Seasonal Patterns </li></ul><ul><li>Last Six and Twelve Months Sales </li></ul><ul><li>Days to Offer and Median Price </li></ul><ul><li>Appreciation: Boulder vs. Louisville </li></ul><ul><li>Summary Market Conditions </li></ul><ul><li>The Future </li></ul><ul><li>How to Get a Great Deal </li></ul><ul><li>Addendum: Recently Sold Houses </li></ul>
  6. 6. Boulder Inventory and Sales Volume <ul><li>Inventory </li></ul><ul><li>The bulge from last year is likely to return. </li></ul><ul><li>403 homes were on market last month, down 4% from last year. </li></ul><ul><li>Sales Volume </li></ul><ul><li>41 homes sold, up 105% from the previous year. </li></ul><ul><li>Volume is higher than last year’s dismal showing. </li></ul>
  7. 7. Notable Sales LUXURY 875 Dellwood Key Statistics: 4 Bed, 5 Bath 4,897 SQFT Sold: 2/26/10 Days to Offer: 685 Sold: $1,600,000 Discount: 5.8% Originally asking $2.3MM, this stunning custom home with high-end everything sat on the market for two full years before selling. ENTRY LEVEL 30 S. 32 nd Street Key Statistics: 3 Bed, 1 Bath 1,040 SQFT Sold: 3/12/10 Days to Offer: 6 Sold: $365,500 Discount: 2.5% Showing resilience in the winds of overall market weakness, the entry level has not dropped in price and desirable properties continue to sell quickly. MID RANGE 210 Mohawk Drive Key Statistics: 4 Bed, 2 Bath 1,976 SQFT Sold: 2/19/10 Days to Offer: 4 Sold: $525,000 Discount: 1.9% Featuring an amenity rich yet reasonable HOA, homes in Navajo Court are rarely available. Despite a dated interior, this one literally flew off the market.
  8. 8. Seasonal Volume and Inventory <ul><li>There are strong annual market patterns in Boulder. </li></ul><ul><li>Sales volume (demand) has been trailing the 5 year average by up to 60%. </li></ul><ul><li>Inventory (supply) is on track for another record year, well above the 5 year average. </li></ul><ul><li>Economics 101: Lower demand +higher supply = falling prices. </li></ul>
  9. 9. Sales (Last Six and Twelve Months) <ul><li>Sales volume has been dropping steadily for the past several years. </li></ul><ul><li>During the last six months, sales volume has increased noticeably. This is a positive sign but may be driven by temporary tax incentives. </li></ul>
  10. 10. Days to Offer and Median Price <ul><li>The median number of days before a sold property received an accepted offer was 134. This is up significantly from last year and a continuing trend. </li></ul><ul><li>The median sale price was $590,000, suggesting that even during these difficult market conditions, a diversity of properties are finding buyers. </li></ul>
  11. 11. Appreciation: Boulder vs. Louisville <ul><li>This analysis was put together for a client studying historic appreciation for houses in Boulder and Louisville. </li></ul><ul><li>The charts show 4 bedroom, 2 bath home sales from 1997 to 2010 (detached dwellings). </li></ul><ul><li>A best fit line shows Boulder has nearly twice the slope of Louisville, but the goodness of fit (R 2 ) is much better for Louisville. </li></ul><ul><li>This suggests that Boulder has greater price diversity and may continue to appreciate at a faster rate than Louisville. </li></ul>
  12. 12. Current Market Conditions <ul><li>Desirable, well priced, and professionally marketed properties are finding buyers and in some cases even generating multiple offers. </li></ul><ul><li>At price points above $500,000, sellers are discounting from what was possible just a few years ago. Above $1MM, the market is having a 20%-40% off sale. </li></ul><ul><li>For successful transactions, negotiated discounts (from last asking) are high, reflecting an expectation from buyers for price concessions. </li></ul>
  13. 13. The Future <ul><li>All eyes are watching the economy and interest rates. </li></ul><ul><li>The Federal Reserve has signaled an end to its MBS purchasing program and a coming near-term increase in the Fed Funds Rate. This suggests the economy is entering a period of sustained growth. </li></ul><ul><li>The local Boulder economy is continuing to attract new employers, a positive sign for the long term (housing and employment are closely tied). </li></ul>
  14. 14. How To Get A Great Deal <ul><li>Real estate transactions are one of life’s largest financial decisions. Shouldn’t you have an advisor? </li></ul><ul><li>We believe agents should add value and earn their commission. The sooner we get started, the more value we can add. </li></ul><ul><li>Trust the real estate experts from Silver Fern Homes to advise you on current market conditions, help you find the right home, and negotiate the best possible deal. </li></ul>
  15. 15. Addendum: Recently Sold Houses Note: may include older property not listed in the previous Silver fern Report
  16. 16. Addendum: Recently Sold Attached Dwellings Note: may include older property not listed in the previous Silver fern Report

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