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Reisen til singulariteten - for Color Line 2018

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With a broad focus on the history and future of AI (artificial intelligence) the author ask the question: what will the future bring? Will thinking machines have feelings, a soul or a moral?

Published in: Technology
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Reisen til singulariteten - for Color Line 2018

  1. 1. • . 1 …. Reisen til singulariteten Ole Kristian Nystrøm
  2. 2. 3
  3. 3. 4
  4. 4. 1942 - Isaac Asimov «Handbook of Robotics, 56th Edition, 2058 A.D.»
  5. 5. 1955 - John McCarthy «the science and engineering of making intelligent machines»
  6. 6. 1 - 2 - 3
  7. 7. 1 ANI
  8. 8. 2 AGI
  9. 9. Linda Gottfredson «a very general mental capability … the ability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience»
  10. 10. 3 ASI
  11. 11. Nick Bostrom - 1998 «an intellect that is much smarter than the best human brains in practically every field, including scientific creativity, general wisdom and social skills»
  12. 12. Ray Kurzweil Law of Accelerating Returns
  13. 13. ASI
  14. 14. Singularity 
 a point at which a function takes an infinite value, especially in space- time when matter is infinitely dense, as at the center of a black hole.
  15. 15. «the moment in the future when our technology’s intelligence exceeds our own» - Vernor Vinge
  16. 16. Within thirty years
 we will have the technological means to create 
 superhuman intelligence.
 
 
 Shortly after 
 the human era will be ended.
  17. 17. «more likely than not to have reached AGI in 2040» - Bostrom 2014
  18. 18. kunstig intelligens 
 ≠
 menneskelig intelligens
  19. 19. - er det plass for menneskene? Etter singulariteten
  20. 20. Sett av normer, verdier og holdninger som aksepteres. Forsøkes praktisert av et individ eller en gruppe. Hva er moral?
  21. 21. 61
  22. 22. Evnen til å være bevisst om noe inne i en selv. Bevissthet
  23. 23. Mennesket og aper 4 mill.år siden
  24. 24. Pattedyr 200 mill.år siden
  25. 25. • Mange arter er bevisste, men hvor mange er moralske? • Er bare mennesket som er opptatt av moral og etikk? • Vil kampen om tilværelsen pågå uavhengig av dette? Problemstillinger
  26. 26. Hva betyr mål?
  27. 27. Goal-seeking systems will have drives to: • Model their own operation • To improve themselves Måldrevne systemer The Basic AI Drives - Stephen M. Omhundro, 2008
  28. 28. En smart entitet som er gitt et mål vil kunne manipulere seg selv. Den vil kunne manipulere sine mål. Den vil kunne utvikle bevissthet. Bevisste systemer
  29. 29. Den har verktøy som gir den et bedre og mer nyansert bilde av virkeligheten. Den vil kunne se inn i seg selv og se på sosiale sammenhenger. Den vil kunne utvikle moral. Moralske systemer
  30. 30. kunstig moral 
 ≠
 menneskelig moral
  31. 31. Har den moral? Nei Hvilke mål driver den? Ja Er det vår moral? Våre Hvem sine mål er det? Egne Tilgang til å nå sine mål? Nei Hmmmm… Ja Hvem sin moral er det? De onde De gode Nei Vi er ok! Ja Står vår art i veien? De onde De gode Nei Vi er ok! Ja Hmmmm…
  32. 32. For mange populasjoner vil veksten avta når bestanden nærmer seg stedets bæreevne. Begrensningen i antallet skyldes forhold som mattilgang, plassmangel, stress, sykdommer osv. Disse forholdene kalles ofte tetthetsregulerende faktorer. Logaritmisk og vil nå en likevekt. Tetthetsavhengig vekst1
  33. 33. En ny art til et område der den ikke fantes fra før. Konsekvensene kan bli katastrofale for de etablerte artene hvis den nye arten trives ekstremt godt i det nye miljøet. Ukontrollert vekst2
  34. 34. hva da?
  35. 35. !
  36. 36. "
  37. 37. "
  38. 38. !
  39. 39. The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology – Ray Kurzweil How long before superintelligence? - Nick Bostrom The Coming Technological Singularity - Verner Venge Linda Gottfredson The Path to Machine Intelligence – Numenta AI A modern approach – Russel and Norvig Our Final Invention - James Barrat http://singularityu.org http://singularityhub.com http://waitbutwhy.com/ Kilder og lesning
  40. 40. Kilder

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