New Technology Lecture L15 The Broadcast Century

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The 20th Century was the century of broadcasting. It started with radio, then cinemas and finally TV. All one-way broadcast mediums. They all have one restriction. They are based on a model of scarcity, i.e. program directors have to choose the program for you, since there are only finite number of channels and screens.

Television has not really changed very dramatically for many years. The only major upgrade was adding color. However we are now seeing another change: Digital TV. Changing TV to digital has already had impact. Digital means better picture and sound, but also some changes in distribution. Also, with digital TV, software starts to play a major role and the Internet will become a possibility as distribution mechanism. This will cause disruption In this lecture we look at home entertainment from the days of talking machines to our times of Internet TV, Interactive TV and IPTV.

In this lecture we look at how content viewing is changing and why the TV industry getting disrupted.

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New Technology Lecture L15 The Broadcast Century

  1. 1. Lecture L15 THE BROADCAST CENTURY
  2. 2. Why?
  3. 3. 100 million hours / year
  4. 4. 200 million minutes / day
  5. 5. Where do people find the time?
  6. 6. "The wireless music box has no imaginable commercial value. Who would pay for a message sent to nobody in particular?" -- David Sarnoff's associates in response to his urgings for investment in the radio in the 1920s. EARLY ENTERTAINMENT
  7. 7. Early music was performed live Story telling People got together to sing the 
 songs of the day Participation: everyone was an entertainer Culture
  8. 8. Read-Write Culture
  9. 9. Edison’s Phonograph 1877 “The Talking Machine”
  10. 10. Emile Berliner’s Gramophone, 1889
  11. 11. First radio broadcasts are in 1906 Commercial radio broadcasting starts in 1920s Amateur operators Equipment manufactures Public’s need for information Westinghouse Model WR-30 Gothic Style Tombstone Radio (1933) http://www.tuberadioland.com/westinghouseWR-30_main.html
  12. 12. For God’s sake go down to the reception and 
 get rid of a lunatic who’s down there. 
 He says he’s got a machine for seeing by wireless! — Editor of the Daily Express in response 
 to a prospective visit by John Logie Baird ENTER THE TV
  13. 13. John Logie Baird ! Scottish inventor ! Experimented with wireless
 transmission of images ! First public television broadcast was 27. January 1926 in London
  14. 14. TV broadcast start in the 1930s ! BBC starts broadcasts in 1936 ! Slow increase in consoles ! Lack of standard !
  15. 15. Color in the 50s ! RCA begins production of its 
 first color-TV set for consumers ! Low performance and high price
  16. 16. In 1950 a market has emerged ! US data: ! 1946 there are 20.000 TVs, 
 18 stations ! 1953 there are over 20
 million TVs – 44% of 
 households, 300 stations ! TV in Iceland in 1966
  17. 17. The global broadcasting & cable tv 
 market grew by 4.6% in 2011 to 
 reach a value of $400.6 billion ! The market is expected to reach 
 almost $475,000 million by 2015 Source:  DataMnitor
  18. 18. Why is TV so powerful?
  19. 19. TV Watching On average, individuals in the industrialised world devote three hours a day to watching TV
  20. 20. TV Watching On average, individuals in the industrialised world devote three hours a day to watching TV
  21. 21. TV Watching Gallup poll on TV Watching ! Two out of five adult respondents and seven out of 10 teenagers said they spent too much time watching TV ! Usually people are embarrassed to admit to watching much TV
  22. 22. A Formula for Addiction TV is passive and relaxing ! Reduces alertness ! Effect is fast ! Problem: TV addiction
  23. 23. A Formula for Addiction
  24. 24. TREND 23% of UK teenagers claim to watch less TV and 15% admit they read fewer books now that they have smartphones
  25. 25. THE BROADCASTING CENTURY ONE 2 MANY READ ONLY CULTURE Emile Berliner’s Gramophone 1889 Edison’s 
 Phonograph 1877 1900 BUSINESS MODELS GET ESTABLISHED DIGITAL
 FORMAT Radio Broadcasts 1920s TV The Record Broadcasts Industry - LPs 1940s 1950s CDs 1980s DVDs 1990s 2000
  26. 26. TV GOES DIGITAL
  27. 27. Analog Standards NTSC, PAL, SECAM Broadcast: VHF (54-88 MHz, 174-216 MHz) UHF (470 to 890 MHz) Cable
  28. 28. Digital TV DVB, ATSC, ISDB, DTMB, DBM H.262/MPEG ! Transmitted Radio (VHF, UHF, SHF), satellites, cables, fiber or ADSL Benefits Better picture and better sound – more resolution Better use of bandwidth using compression Most countries switched off analogue transmission 2007-2009 Source:  HowStuffWorks.com
  29. 29. Digital TV Normal TV has the ratio 4:3 (1,34:1) ! HDTV has the aspect ratio 16:9 (1,78:1) ! Source:  HowStuffWorks.com
  30. 30. End of an Era Digital Content is causing disruptions in the conventional value chain ! DVD sales are slowing ! Distribution of content is going to digital mediums Source:  Economist    -­‐  Coming  soon
  31. 31. NEW SOLUTIONS
  32. 32. Electronic Programming Guide
  33. 33. Additional Information
  34. 34. Time shift Digital video recorders (DVRs) Recording television transmissions for later viewing ! Examples TiVo, ReplayTV, DirectTV
  35. 35. Place Shift Watch your TV everywhere in the world ! Technology that allows you to watch your TV over the Internet ! Slingbox
  36. 36. Video On Demand VoD - Video-on-demand Goodbye to of the Video Store Change in distribution of content Delivered over the Internet, ADSL
 or cable, including fibre Pictures from www.oscar.com
  37. 37. THE BROADCASTING CENTURY ONE 2 MANY READ ONLY CULTURE Emile Berliner’s Gramophone 1889 Edison’s 
 Phonograph 1877 BUSINESS MODELS GET ESTABLISHED DIGITAL
 FORMAT Radio Broadcasts 1920s TV The Record Broadcasts Industry - LPs 1940s 1950s THE 
 DIGITAL DECADE ! CDs 1980s DVDs 1990s THE CONTENT ESCAPES THE FORM ! INTERNET DISRUPTION BEGINS 1900 2000
  38. 38. END OF BROADCASTING
  39. 39. Where do people find the time?
  40. 40. TV
  41. 41. 200 billion hours / year Watching TV
  42. 42. Watching TV
  43. 43. 100 million hours / year
  44. 44. 2000 wikipedias / year
  45. 45. Clay Shirky On Cognitive Surplus
  46. 46. Read-only Culture
  47. 47. f(x) = k ax + k) o(x
  48. 48. MOVIE STARS
  49. 49. Chris Anderson On the Long Tail
  50. 50. Bottlenecks in the Distribution channels Hit culture
  51. 51. The Power Law
  52. 52. Pareto principle For many events, roughly 80% of the effects come from 20% of the causes
  53. 53. Economy of SCARCITY
  54. 54. Economy of ABUNDANCE
  55. 55. LONG TAIL
  56. 56. What percentage of the top 10,000 titles in any online media store (Netflix, iTunes, Amazon, or any other) will rent or sell at least once a month?
  57. 57. USER GENERTATED CONTENT
  58. 58. EVERYBODY IS A PRODUCER
  59. 59. BEFORE NOW ONE 2 MANY: 
 BROADCASTING MANY 2 MANY: 
 PEER INTERACTION READ ONLY CULTURE READ WRITE CULTURE BUSINESS MODELS GET ESTABLISHED ESTABLISHED BUSINESS MODELS GET DISRUPTED
  60. 60. END OF BROADCASTING MANY 2 MANY READ WRITE CULTURE Emile Berliner’s Gramophone 1889 Edison’s 
 Phonograph 1877 1900 ESTABLISHED BUSINESS MODELS GET DISRUPTED Radio Broadcasts 1920s TV The Record Broadcasts Industry - LPs 1940s 1950s CDs 1980s THE INTERNET DISRUPTION DVDs 1990s 2000

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