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L13 The Rise of the Machine

Did you know that the term "Computer" once meant a profession? And what did people or computers actually do? They computed mathematical problems. Some problems were tedious and error prone. And it is not surprising that people started to develop machines to aid in the effort. The first mechanical computers were actually created to get rid of errors in human computation. Then came tabulating machines and cash registers. It was not until telephone companies were well established that computing machines became practical.

First computers were huge mainframes, but soon minicomputers like DEC’s PDP started to appear. The transistor was introduced in 1947, but its usefulness was not truly realized until in 1958 when the integrated circuit was invented. This led to the invention of the microprocessor. Intel, in 1971, marketed the 4004 – and the personal computer revolution started. One of the first Personal Computers was MITS’ Altair. This was a simple device and soon others saw the opportunities.

In this lecture we start our coverage of computing and look at some of the early machines and the impact they had.

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L13 The Rise of the Machine

  1. 1. LECTURE L13 RISE OF THE MACHINE
  2. 2. “I can assure you on the highest authority that the data processing is a fad and won’t last out the year.” Editor-in-charge of business books, Prentice-Hall 1957
  3. 3. Q1 Define the term computer
  4. 4. dictionary.com
  5. 5. 71 years ago “I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.” - Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943
  6. 6. 40 years ago “There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in their home.” - Kenneth Olsen, president and founder of Digital Equipment Corp., 1977
  7. 7. Think about this How many computers do you have in your household?
  8. 8. Q2 What were the two main reasons to build calculating machines?
  9. 9. History Computing is time consuming and error prone Demands for computation were increasing with more organised societies Industrial revolution and the Napoleonic reforms Impetus came from Government: Taxing and Defense
  10. 10. Efforts to speed calculations started early Use of logarithmic tables and trigonometry to speed calculations The Counting Business
  11. 11. The Slide Rule by William Oughtred in 1625 Built using logarithms, multiplication of two numbers could be done easier a*b = 10^(log(a)+log(b)) Much quicker than manual calculation The Counting Business
  12. 12. Early Machines Wilhelm Schickard (1592 -1635) German professor of Hebrew and Astronomy University of Tüblingen, Germany Built a calculating machine in 1620s Documented in letters to Johannes Kepler 1623 and 24
  13. 13. Blaise Pascal (1623-1662) French mathematician, physicist, and 
 religious philosopher Built an adding machine in1642-44 Tried to commercialize the machine but labor was too cheap Early Machines
  14. 14. Wilhelm von Leibniz (1646-1716) German mathematician and philosopher Built a machine, the Leibniz Wheel that could multiply and divide Early Machines
  15. 15. Q3 Why did early machines not get widespread?
  16. 16. History Workmanship for building complex machines lacked In late eighteenth century demand for calculation was growing Calculations were done by hand Tedious, slow and error-prone and tables of logarithms were riddled with errors
  17. 17. Think about this How long does it take to compute 707 decimal places of PI? 3.14159265358979323846264338327950288419716939937510582097494459230781640628620899862803 4825342117067982148086513282306647093844609550582231725359408128481117450284102701938521 1055596446229489549303819644288109756659334461284756482337867831652712019091456485669234 6034861045432664821339360726024914127372458700660631558817488152092096282925409171536436 7892590360011330530548820466521384146951941511609433057270365759591953092186117381932611 7931051185480744623799627495673518857527248912279381830119491298336733624406566430860213 9494639522473719070217986094370277053921717629317675238467481846766940513200056812714526 3560827785771342757789609173637178721468440901224953430146549585371050792279689258923
  18. 18. Think about this The idea of calculating with steam was to many impossible - machines could never take over this human activity Yet it did. Can you think of a task done today that will be taken over by machine in the future?
  19. 19. Charles Babbage (1791 – 1871) Sometimes called Inventor of 
 the Computer Wanted to remove the inevitable
 human errors from computing Believed that machines could 
 replace laborious and 
 error-prone calculations
  20. 20. Charles Babbage (1791 – 1871) Designed the Difference Engine Machine to compute polynomials Got grants but efforts were slow Lack of workmanship of the time 
 delayed the project Worked stopped 1833
  21. 21. Babbage started on a new machine in 1834 Beginning of the 2nd Kondratiev – Steam Analytical engine Programmable machine – with 
 primitive programming language Input was in punched cards Run by steam Charles Babbage (1791 – 1871)
  22. 22. Augusta Ada King (1815-1852) Countess of Lovelace A Programmable Machine - 
 General purpose computer Contained 
 mill to calculate, 
 store to keep data, 
 and formulas The first programmer
  23. 23. Q4 What was the first killer application for calculating machines?
  24. 24. The Cash Register
  25. 25. The Cash Register One of the first calculating machines Developed by James Ritty in 1879 in response to thefts by staff “The Incorruptible Cashier” National Cash Register Company – NCR One of the salesman was Tomas Watson, Sr. Watson would later leave for 
 CRT – Computing-Tabulating-Recording 
 Company
  26. 26. Tabulating Machines
  27. 27. Tabulating Machines In the US need for data processing was growing One application was census taking US population grew from 
 17 million in 1840 to 
 50 million in 1880 It took 1.495 clerks 7 years to 
 produce the 1880 census
  28. 28. Tabulating Machines Source: Tabulating machine
 Herman Hollerith Tabulating Machine Company – TMC US Census Bureau awarded Herman Hollerith a contract to produce the 1890 census Tabulating Machines with punched cards Successfully finished in 2,5 years
 with one-third less cost (claimed)
  29. 29. Tabulating Machines Source: Tabulating machine
 Herman Hollerith Used punched cards Hollerith cards were in use until 1960s
  30. 30. Tabulating Machines The Business of Data Processing Even with the growing need for data processing around 1900, the market for tabulating machines was limited CRT and TMC merged and would later change the name to International Business Machines – IBM
  31. 31. Lessons: Early Computing Machines ▪ Early machines could not compete with manual labor – The cost was not low enough to disrupt ▪ Workmanship was lacking ▪ Energy to power machines was not available ▪ Computing requirement were modest until 18th century ▪ Babbage failed to build machines despite the resources ▪ Babbage (or rather Ada, had all the ideas for modern computer
  32. 32. Lessons: Early Computing Machines ▪ First practical calculating device was a Cash Register – Designed due to another problem: theft – Specialised problem instead of a generic one ▪ Tabulating machines appear with the electricity ▪ First buyers of tabulating machines were governments – Centralised
  33. 33. “I think there is a market for about five computers” - Tomas Watson, Sr. Electronic Brains
  34. 34. Electric Computing Foundation of electric computing was laid early Mechanical computers were not considered practical Electricity is widespread Threat of war is looming in the 1930s Governments turn to computing for ballistic computations and code-breaking
  35. 35. Although electricity had entered the equation, it had done so only as an alternative method of powering mechanical equipment Source: Engines that Move Markets The Prevailing Technology Trap
  36. 36. Konrad Zuse (1910-1995) German Engineer Built primitive machines, Z1-Z4 based 
 on relay switches in 1936 – 1944 Used binary system Designed his own language, Plankalkül Never received any official support from
 war-time Germany unlike the Allies Early Work P2 max (V0[:8.0],V1[:8.0]) => R0[:8.0] V0[:8.0] => Z1[:8.0] (Z1[:8.0] < V1[:8.0]) -> V1[:8.0] => Z1[:8.0] Z1[:8.0] => R0[:8.0] END Source: Konrad Zuse
  37. 37. Bletchley Park Location of top-secret code-breaking team Code-breaking the German coding machine ENIGMA
  38. 38. Alan Turing Source: Alan Turing, COLOSSUS, Enigma English mathematician, logician, and cryptographer Headed the team at Bletchley Park Worked on the algorithms to break
 the ENIGMA code Bombe Computer based on heuristics Lead to COLOSSUS – one of the first
 electronic computer Publishes paper in 1936: On Computable Numbers
  39. 39. War Machines Source: COLOSSUS COLOSSUS Built in England’s Bletchley Park and used by British code breakers to read encrypted German ENIGMA messages during World War II Designed by Alan Turing Winston Churchill specifically ordered the destruction of 
 most of the Colossus machines into 'pieces 
 no bigger than a man's hand‘
  40. 40. Q5 Why were machines built during World war II?
  41. 41. War Machines Source: EINIAC ENIAC Electronic Numerical Integrator and Computer Built by the U.S. Army for the purpose of calculating ballistic firing tables Used 18.000 vacuum tubes Designed by John Mauchly and 
 J. Presper Eckert The machine was unveiled in 1946 and was in operation until 1955
  42. 42. John von Neumann John von Neumann, Von Neumann architecture Hungarian mathematician Worked on the Manhattan project and became involved in Moore’s School ENIAC and EDVAC projects Publishes paper - or a memo, 
 On computer design, 1945 Came to be know as 
 Von Neumann architecture
  43. 43. Copyright © 2011 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson Post-war computers Based on vacuum tubes
  44. 44. UNIVAC I Source: Model of UNIVAC I, c. 1954.
 Picture from Smithsonian Institution Source: UNIVAC I Commercial Computer 5,200 vacuum tubes, weighed 13 tons, consumed 125 kW, and could perform about 1,905 operations per second running on a 2.25 MHz clock Occupied more than 35.5 m²
 of floor space The addition time was 525 
 microseconds
  45. 45. United States presidential election of 1952 Eisenhower vs. Stevenson
  46. 46. Transistor Era
  47. 47. Transistor was invented by William Shockley, 
 John Bardeen and Walter Brattain in 1948
  48. 48. Transistor Device use to amplify or switch electronic signals Huge performance improvement Smaller Less energy More robust Faster
  49. 49. Copyright © 2011 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson Computers became
 faster, larger and more powerful
  50. 50. Tyranny of Numbers Source: Tyranny of Numbers, Transistor Computer Computer Engineers have much more flexibility with transistors Problem was that as the number of components 
 increased, wiring them together became a problem
  51. 51. Q6 What solved the Tyranny of Numbers problem?
  52. 52. The Integrated circuit
  53. 53. Copyright © 2011 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson The Invention of the Integrated Circuit Source: Integrated circuit Introduced in 1958 by two inventors Robert Noyce at Fairchild Semiconductor and Jack Kilby at Texas Instruments Transistors could be wired 
 together in practical way Mass manufacturing of ICs
  54. 54. Adjacent possible Two inventors at the same time invented the IC
  55. 55. Competition Emerges The Computer Market is born The main application is data processing • Business applications like Payroll, inventory and so on IBM enters the computer business Tomas Watson, Jr. launched
 IBM System/360 in 1964 Systematically replaced 
 data processing machines
 with mainframe computers
  56. 56. In the 1950s Automation Starts
  57. 57. Automation Automation – Computers begin to disrupt Start to replace jobs Banks and insurance companies were early adopters Handling paycheques, payroll that used to require many clerks to compute
  58. 58. Automation Source: Desk Set (from IMDB) Hollywood took notice Desk Set from 1957 with 
 Spencer Tracey and
 Katherine Hepburn
  59. 59. Lessons: Early Computing Machines ▪ Electricity was key to computers – Switching technologies ▪ First electric computers were primitive and fragile – Low performance ▪ Centralisation – First computers were in centers – Expensive, large, run by experts – Priests
  60. 60. Lessons: Early Computing Machines ▪ Giant “Brains” – Association with human thought ▪ Automation – Disruption – Companies need fewer clerks to compute – Tedious jobs eliminated – Big debate – computer executive had to defend the existence of their machines ▪ Abstractions few – Programs were wired in
  61. 61. Computers in the 1970s
  62. 62. Think About This! Resources, Processes and Values Theory The Disruptive Innovation Theory
  63. 63. Mainframes IBM 704 IBM System/360 Large computers in data centres Batch operations Critical applications Financial transaction processing
  64. 64. Q7 Mainframes were expensive. Not many people could use them. How was this solved?
  65. 65. Time-sharing Computers were expensive to purchase and maintain To make it efficient required multiple users Large data centres Utility Computing Time-sharing of expensive equipment
  66. 66. Moore’s Law Cost of computers went down
  67. 67. Minicomputers Cost for new entrants in the computer business was prohibitive in the 60s Market for those that did not need complete solution but could benefit from using computes Birth of the Minicomputers Two major client groups: 
 academic community and the military
  68. 68. Minicomputers Digital Equipment Corporation Founded in 1957 by Ken Olsen Launched PDP-1 in 1960 The PDP-8 was the first successful 
 commercial minicomputer – 1965 Used integrated circuits Time-sharing allowed multiple 
 users to use the machines at the 
 same time
  69. 69. The Disruptive Innovation Theory Digital used relatively simple, convenient, low-cost innovation to create growth and disrupt IBM
  70. 70. Q8 Why did IBM not go into the mini computer market?
  71. 71. RPV IBM Was a mainframe company, their customers wanted mainframes, not low- performance mini computers
  72. 72. Lessons: Mainframes to Mini computers ▪ IBM, industry’s first leader, sold mainframe computers to the central accounting and data processing departments of large organizations ▪ The emergence of the minicomputer represented disruptive technology to IBM and competitors ▪ Their customers had no use for it: it promised lower, not higher margins ▪ As a result the mainframe makers ignored it for years Clayton M. Christensen: The Innovator’s Dilemma
  73. 73. Lessons: Mainframes to Mini computers ▪ This allowed new entrants: DEC, Data General, Prime, Wang and Nixdorf – to create and dominate the minicomputer market ▪ IBM entered the minicomputer market when it was performance competitive to the needs of their customers ▪ The history repeated itself Clayton M. Christensen: The Innovator’s Dilemma
  74. 74. May 25, 1961 Status: Mainframe era, mini computer early days Transistor era, integrated circuits just invented Programming languages new
  75. 75. Q9 What role did the US space program have on computer innovation?
  76. 76. “The space program badly needed the things the integrated circuit could provide.” - Jack St. Clair Kilby
  77. 77. Robert Noyce and Gordon Moore founded Intel Semiconductor company Initial focus was on memory chips There was still enormous potential market for calculations The vision of Charles Babbage was still not realized but the mainframe market met the needs of governments and large organizations Semiconductor Industry is Born
  78. 78. Intel introduced the first microprocessor 4004 in 1971 8008 in 1972, 8080 in 1974 and 8088 in 1979 The beginning of the PC The Microprocessor
  79. 79. The Microprocessor Intel was really reluctant to go into the microchip business No market existed No demand at the time Intel created 4004 for another company They would not market chips, but built them when ordered The company cancelled the order and Intel was forced to offer them for sale
  80. 80. Q10 What was the first product in the market after the introduction of computer chips? HINT: It disrupted a device that was invented in 1625
  81. 81. The Calculator
  82. 82. The Calculator Advances in technology introduced the 
 desktop calculator The market grew fast With advances, the calculators became more powerful and smaller Pocket calculators Became widespread in the 70s Replaced the slide rule after 374 years
  83. 83. Calculator Wars Many companies start to make Calculators Casio, Sharp, Canon, HP, MITS and more In Europe, Aristo, Denner & Pape, a slide rule manufacturer since 1872, also entered the market in 1972 Price dropped fast: $400 in 1972, $200, $100 and $50 in 1974 Companies like MITS need to find new ways of revenues
  84. 84. Think about this! All mini-computer companies had
 what it would take to go into small
 scale products – they even had
 people proposing the idea, but they
 did not!
  85. 85. The Personal Computer
  86. 86. The Personal Computer MITS marketed Altair in 1975 Came with Intel 8080 Users needed to assemble the machine themselves No keyboard, no screen, no printer 256 byte of RAM, programmed with switches Included BASIC interpreter from Microsoft Written by Bill Gates and Paul Allen Cost of $397 appealed to computer enthusiasts
  87. 87. Microsoft is Born Bill Gates and Paul Allen Wrote a BASIC interpreter
 for the Altair Founded a company they called
 Micro-Soft
  88. 88. Enter Apple Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak Show the Apple I in the Palo Alto 
 Homebrew Computer Club in 1976 Apple II was marketed 1977 and became a huge success - “Apple growth” Hewlett-Packard had turn Wozniak down – no market
  89. 89. “The Personal Computer will fall flat on its face in business.” - Ken Olsen
  90. 90. Computer Companies Existing computer companies were not interested in PCs DEC, HP, IBM, and Control Data did not see a business model HP rejected a proposal from Steve Wozniak DEC rejected a proposal from David Ahl Support for machines like this was considered impossible Consequence: The development of the PC had to begin with hobbyists
  91. 91. Think About This! The Liquid Network
  92. 92. The early computers were all about building the right hardware – this ignored what important element?
  93. 93. SOFTWARE

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Did you know that the term "Computer" once meant a profession? And what did people or computers actually do? They computed mathematical problems. Some problems were tedious and error prone. And it is not surprising that people started to develop machines to aid in the effort. The first mechanical computers were actually created to get rid of errors in human computation. Then came tabulating machines and cash registers. It was not until telephone companies were well established that computing machines became practical. First computers were huge mainframes, but soon minicomputers like DEC’s PDP started to appear. The transistor was introduced in 1947, but its usefulness was not truly realized until in 1958 when the integrated circuit was invented. This led to the invention of the microprocessor. Intel, in 1971, marketed the 4004 – and the personal computer revolution started. One of the first Personal Computers was MITS’ Altair. This was a simple device and soon others saw the opportunities. In this lecture we start our coverage of computing and look at some of the early machines and the impact they had.

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