1. LECTURE L07
BECOMING INVISIBLE

2. Steve Jobs
Apple Special Event 27. January 2010

4. iPad
The iPad was released April 3rd
From January to April there was a lot of discussion about the iPad
And there were more sceptics than not

5. iPad
300,000 iPads were sold on their first day of availability
By May 3, 2010, Apple had sold a million iPads

7. Inflection Point

8. Shift in Computing
Where is the C-drive?
Computer anyone can use
The computer just
disappeared
Computer you use standing

10. Shifting focus

11. TECHNOLOGY
CONSUMER
Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of
Diffusion of Innovation

12. OBVIOUS
INVISIBLE
Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of
Diffusion of Innovation

13. ANALYTICAL THINKING
EMOTIONS AND
FEELINGS
Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of
Diffusion of Innovation

14. User Centred Design
Don Norman

16. Computers are
still pretty
complicated
technology

17. Consumer Devices
The Computer and
the Internet
disappear

18. Source: Morgan Stanley Research
https://techpinions.com/the-terrible-tablet-tantrum-part-1/30840

21. Inflection points
When technology changes business
Rapid growth starts
Decline of growth starts

23. Hype Curve

24. Wired Magazine editor (former) Chris Anderson on
the Hype Curve and forecasting

26. The
Hype
Cycle
A
graphic
representation
of
the
maturity,
adoption
and
business
application
of
specific
technologies

29. NASDAQ
January
2000
The Internet Bubble

30. NASDAQ
January
2000
The Internet Bubble

31. NASDAQ
January
2000
The Internet Bubble

32. The
Railway
Bubble
Railway
Stock
in
Britain
The
value
of
railway
stock
grew
4
fold
from
1826
to
1846
Many
companies,
heavy
over-­‐investment
The
bubble
burst
1846

33. The
Internet
Bubble

34. Anderson’s Grand Unified Theory of Technology Trends

36. Theory of Predicting the Future
Anderson’s Grand Unified Theory of Predicting the Future
All important technologies go through four states, or at least four
stages, in their lives. Each stage can be seen as a collision, with
something else. The stages are:
1. Critical Price
2. Critical Mass
3. Displace another technology
4. Become nearly free

37. TECHNOLOGY
CONSUMER
Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of
Diffusion of Innovation

38. Importance of Design

39. DESIGN
As technology matures,
design becomes important

41. Technology Adoption Life Cycle
The talent of the company that made the
product in the early days may become wrong
when the product matures
The organisational structure of companies
need to change when the company moves
from technology to products/services

42. Organisations which design
systems ... are constrained to
produce designs which are copies
of the communication structures
of these organisations
Conway’s Law

43. To whom does the designer report to?
A programmer?

45. Technology
Business
Design

46. Technology
Life
Cycle
When
will
the
early
majority
pragmatics
start
buying
a
product?
The
value
of
the
product
is
sufficiently
great
or
good-­‐enough

47. Technology
Life
Cycle
Early
in
the
cycle,
technology
is
important
When
technology
becomes
good
enough
Value
becomes
more
important
Design
becomes
more
important
Technology
is
no
longer
the
variable
that
controls
purchases
Improvements
loose
their
glamour
Customers
are
looking
for
things
like
value
convenience,
productivity,
ease-­‐of-­‐use,
low-­‐cost,
reliability
Emotions

50. Life
Cycle
of
Technology
The
move
from
Technology
to
Commodity
The
need-­‐satisfaction
curve
of
technology

52. The
Market
of
Commodites
• What
happens
when
a
market
becomes
mature?
– Karaoke
Capitalism
takes
over
• Red
oceans
– All
the
industries
in
existence
today
—the
known
market
space
– Industry
boundaries
are
defined
and
accepted,
and
the
competitive
rules
of
the
game
are
known

53. Creating
Blue
Oceans
• Strategy
for
creating
new
markets
– Make
the
competition
irrelevant
• Blue
oceans
denote
all
the
industries
not
in
existence
today—the
unknown
market
space,
untainted
by
competition

54. Instead
of
focusing
on
beating
the
competition,
you
focus
on
making
the
competition
irrelevant
by
creating
a
leap
in
value
for
your
buyers
and
your
company,
thereby
opening
up
new
and
uncontested
market
space
Value Innovation

55. TECHNOLOGY
CONSUMER
Technology Adoption Life Cycle
The Law of Diffusion of Innovation

56. Next
DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY