Lecture L07
BECOMING INVISIBLE
Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of
Diffusion of Innovation

TECHNOLOGY

CONSUMER
Inflection points
When technology changes business
Decline starts

Rapid growth starts
Hype Curve
Wired Magazine editor (former) Chris Anderson on
the Hype Curve and forecasting
The	
  Hype	
  Cycle
	
   A	
  graphic	
  representation	
  of	
  the	
  maturity,	
  adoption	
  and	
  business	
  
appl...
The Internet Bubble

NASDAQ	
  
January	
  2000	
  
The Internet Bubble

NASDAQ	
  
January	
  2000	
  
The Internet Bubble

NASDAQ	
  
January	
  2000	
  
Anderson’s Grand Unified Theory of Technology Trends
Theory of Predicting the Future
Anderson’s Grand Unified Theory of Predicting the Future

!

All important technologies go ...
The	
  Railway	
  Bubble

Railway	
  Stock	
  in	
  Britain	
  
The	
  value	
  of	
  railway	
  stock	
  grew	
  4	
  fol...
The	
  Internet	
  Bubble
Shifting focus
Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of
Diffusion of Innovation

TECHNOLOGY

CONSUMER
  Computers	
  are	
  still	
  
pretty	
  complicated	
  
technology	
  
!
!

	
  
Consumer Devices

The	
  Computer	
  and	
  
the	
  Internet	
  

disappear
Netbooks
Price	
  point	
  is	
  $300	
  
25%	
  of	
  laptop	
  sales	
  
25-­‐30	
  million	
  units	
  

in	
  2009
Chromebook
Samsung	
  Chomebook	
  
$249	
  
!

16	
  GB	
  Solid	
  state	
  drive	
  
100	
  GB	
  Cloud	
  Storage
PC sales decline by 10% but Chromebooks climb 112%
Tablets
Explosion	
  in	
  tablet

sales
Consumerazion
Where	
  is	
  the	
  

C-­‐drive?
Source: IDC http://www.technobuffalo.com/2013/05/28/tablets-to-outshippcs-idc-report/
DESIGN
As technology matures, 

design becomes important
Technology	
  Adoption	
  Life	
  Cycle
	
   The	
  talent	
  of	
  the	
  company	
  that	
  made	
  the	
  
product	
  i...
Conway’s Law
Organisations which design
systems ... are constrained to
produce designs which are
copies of the communicati...
To whom does the designer report to? 

A programmer?
Technology	
  

Business	
  

Design
Technology	
  Life	
  Cycle
When	
  will	
  the	
  early

majority	
  pragmatics

start	
  buying	
  a	
  product?	
  
!

...
Technology	
  Life	
  Cycle
	
   Early	
  in	
  the	
  cycle,	
  technology	
  is	
  important	
  
	
   When	
  technology...
Life	
  Cycle	
  of	
  Technology
	
   The	
  move	
  from	
  Technology	
  to	
  Commodity

The	
  need-­‐satisfaction	
 ...
The	
  Market	
  of	
  Commodites
• What	
  happens	
  when	
  a	
  market	
  becomes	
  
mature?	
  
– Karaoke	
  Capital...
Creating	
  Blue	
  Oceans
• Strategy	
  for	
  creating	
  new	
  markets	
  
– Make	
  the	
  competition	
  irrelevant	...
Value Innovation

Instead	
  of	
  focusing	
  on	
  beating	
  the	
  competition,	
  you	
  focus	
  on	
  
making	
  th...
New Technology Lecture L07 Becoming Invisible
New Technology Lecture L07 Becoming Invisible
New Technology Lecture L07 Becoming Invisible
New Technology Lecture L07 Becoming Invisible
New Technology Lecture L07 Becoming Invisible
New Technology Lecture L07 Becoming Invisible
New Technology Lecture L07 Becoming Invisible
New Technology Lecture L07 Becoming Invisible
New Technology Lecture L07 Becoming Invisible
New Technology Lecture L07 Becoming Invisible
New Technology Lecture L07 Becoming Invisible
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New Technology Lecture L07 Becoming Invisible

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In the early days of product development, the technology is inferior and lacking in performance. The focus is very much on the technology itself. The users are enthusiast who like the idea of the product, find use for it, and except the lack of performance. Then as the product becomes more mature, other factors become important, such as price, design, features, portability. The product moves from being a technology to become a consumer item, and even a community.
In this lecture we explore the change from technology focus to consumer focus, and look at why people stand in line overnight to buy the latest gadgets.

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New Technology Lecture L07 Becoming Invisible

  1. 1. Lecture L07 BECOMING INVISIBLE
  2. 2. Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of Diffusion of Innovation TECHNOLOGY CONSUMER
  3. 3. Inflection points When technology changes business Decline starts Rapid growth starts
  4. 4. Hype Curve
  5. 5. Wired Magazine editor (former) Chris Anderson on the Hype Curve and forecasting
  6. 6. The  Hype  Cycle   A  graphic  representation  of  the  maturity,  adoption  and  business   application  of  specific  technologies
  7. 7. The Internet Bubble NASDAQ   January  2000  
  8. 8. The Internet Bubble NASDAQ   January  2000  
  9. 9. The Internet Bubble NASDAQ   January  2000  
  10. 10. Anderson’s Grand Unified Theory of Technology Trends
  11. 11. Theory of Predicting the Future Anderson’s Grand Unified Theory of Predicting the Future ! All important technologies go through four states, or at least four stages, in their lives. Each stage can be seen as a collision, with something else. The stages are: ! 1. 2. 3. 4. Critical Price Critical Mass ! Displace another technology Become nearly free
  12. 12. The  Railway  Bubble Railway  Stock  in  Britain   The  value  of  railway  stock  grew  4  fold  from  1826  to  1846   Many  companies,  heavy  over-­‐investment   The  bubble  burst  1846
  13. 13. The  Internet  Bubble
  14. 14. Shifting focus
  15. 15. Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of Diffusion of Innovation TECHNOLOGY CONSUMER
  16. 16.   Computers  are  still   pretty  complicated   technology   ! !  
  17. 17. Consumer Devices The  Computer  and   the  Internet   disappear
  18. 18. Netbooks Price  point  is  $300   25%  of  laptop  sales   25-­‐30  million  units  
 in  2009
  19. 19. Chromebook Samsung  Chomebook   $249   ! 16  GB  Solid  state  drive   100  GB  Cloud  Storage
  20. 20. PC sales decline by 10% but Chromebooks climb 112%
  21. 21. Tablets Explosion  in  tablet
 sales Consumerazion Where  is  the  
 C-­‐drive?
  22. 22. Source: IDC http://www.technobuffalo.com/2013/05/28/tablets-to-outshippcs-idc-report/
  23. 23. DESIGN As technology matures, 
 design becomes important
  24. 24. Technology  Adoption  Life  Cycle   The  talent  of  the  company  that  made  the   product  in  the  early  days  may  become  wrong   when  the  product  matures   !   The  organisational  structure  of  companies   need  to  change  when  the  company  moves   from  technology  to  products/services   !  
  25. 25. Conway’s Law Organisations which design systems ... are constrained to produce designs which are copies of the communication structures of these organisations
  26. 26. To whom does the designer report to? 
 A programmer?
  27. 27. Technology   Business   Design
  28. 28. Technology  Life  Cycle When  will  the  early
 majority  pragmatics
 start  buying  a  product?   ! The  value  of  the  product
 is  sufficiently  great  or
 good-­‐enough

  29. 29. Technology  Life  Cycle   Early  in  the  cycle,  technology  is  important     When  technology  becomes  good  enough   Value  becomes  more  important   Design  becomes  more  important   Technology  is  no  longer  the  variable  that  controls  purchases   Improvements  loose  their  glamour   ! Customers  are  looking  for  things  like  value  convenience,  productivity,  
 ease-­‐of-­‐use,  low-­‐cost,  reliability   ! Emotions
  30. 30. Life  Cycle  of  Technology   The  move  from  Technology  to  Commodity The  need-­‐satisfaction  curve  of  technology
  31. 31. The  Market  of  Commodites • What  happens  when  a  market  becomes   mature?   – Karaoke  Capitalism  takes  over   • Red  oceans   – All  the  industries  in  existence  today
 —the  known  market  space   – Industry  boundaries  are  defined  and  accepted,  and   the  competitive  rules  of  the  game  are  known
  32. 32. Creating  Blue  Oceans • Strategy  for  creating  new  markets   – Make  the  competition  irrelevant   • Blue  oceans  denote  all  the  industries  
 not  in  existence  today—the  unknown  
 market  space,  untainted  by  competition
  33. 33. Value Innovation Instead  of  focusing  on  beating  the  competition,  you  focus  on   making  the  competition  irrelevant  by  creating  a  leap  in  value   for  your  buyers  and  your  company,  thereby  opening  up  new   and  uncontested  market  space

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