The Oxford Internet Survey (OxIS)


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The Oxford Internet Survey (OxIS)

  1. 1. Grant Blank & William H. Dutton Trust on the Internet: 2003-2009 Summer Doctoral Program, 16 July 2010
  2. 2. Paradox of Trust <ul><li>Internet simplifies communication </li></ul><ul><ul><li>e.g. reduces search costs </li></ul></ul><ul><li>But trust is harder </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Lack of face-to-face cues </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Greater opportunities for deception and fraud </li></ul></ul>
  3. 3. Research Questions <ul><li>To what extent do people extend trust to the Internet? </li></ul><ul><li>Has trust on the Internet changed over time? </li></ul>
  4. 4. Two 2003 Conclusions <ul><li>Internet is an experience technology </li></ul><ul><ul><li>“ [t]hose exposed to the Internet gain more trust in the technology… Even past users have more confidence in the Internet than do non-users who have no experience” (Dutton & Shepherd 2006) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Bad experiences reduced confidence and increased perception of risks </li></ul>
  5. 5. OxIS methodology <ul><li>Fieldwork: 2003, 2005, 2007 and 2009 </li></ul><ul><li>Probability sample of England, Scotland & Wales </li></ul><ul><li>Respondents: 14 year olds and older </li></ul><ul><li>Face-to-face interviews </li></ul><ul><li>Sponsorship: Hefce, British Library, Ofcom, Scottish and Southern Energy, Cisco, Talisma, AOL, BT, Orange </li></ul>
  6. 6. Strengths of OxIS <ul><li>Quality </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Random sample </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>High response rate </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Face-to-face interviews improve reliability </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Comprehensiveness </li></ul><ul><ul><li>100s of questions cover dozens of topics of interest </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Flexibility </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Ability to answer wide variety of research questions </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Consistency </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Track trends and changes across years </li></ul></ul>
  7. 7. Sample composition OxIS 2003 2005 2007 2009 Fielded in June-July February-March March - April Feb - March Number of respondents 2,030 2,185 2,350 2,013 Response rate 66% 72% 77% 67%
  8. 10. Inconsistency <ul><li>Fig. 2: Bad experiences common & increasing </li></ul><ul><li>Fig. 1: Users become more trusting </li></ul><ul><li>2003 finding: Bad experiences undermine trust </li></ul>
  9. 11. Two hypotheses <ul><li>1. Bad experiences have no effect </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Discounted </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Accepted as cost of using Internet </li></ul></ul><ul><li>2. Experienced users are able to cope with problems </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The more time spent online, the more likely bad experiences </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>If the Internet is an experience technology, most the experienced users are best able to cope </li></ul></ul>
  10. 13. Four categories of variables in models <ul><li>2003 and 2009 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Experience on the Internet </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Demographic variables as controls </li></ul></ul><ul><li>2009 analysis adds variables </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Attitudes toward the Internet and technology </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Personal disposition to trust </li></ul></ul>
  11. 14. Four new Indices <ul><li>Created using principal components analysis </li></ul><ul><li>“ Net trust” </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Reflects confidence in the Internet and the people who use it </li></ul></ul><ul><li>“ Technology Attitude” </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Reflects general faith/suspicion in technology </li></ul></ul><ul><li>“ Net Positive” </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Reflects general positive attitude toward the Internet </li></ul></ul><ul><li>“ Net Negative” </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Reflects general negative attitude toward the Internet </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Attitudes are not deep-seated convictions </li></ul>
  12. 18. Conclusions <ul><li>1. Unlike 2003: Bad experiences do not undermine trust </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Bad experiences are discounted or accepted as part of the cost of taking advantage of the Internet </li></ul></ul><ul><li>2. Experience variables dominate e-commerce model </li></ul><ul><li>3. Attitude variables dominate trust models </li></ul><ul><li>4. Demographic effects are weak in all models </li></ul><ul><li>5. Users perceive valuable benefits: The Internet is alive and well </li></ul>
  13. 19. Thank you. <ul><li>Grant Blank </li></ul><ul><li>[email_address] </li></ul><ul><li>Oxford Internet Surveys </li></ul><ul><li> </li></ul><ul><li>[email_address] </li></ul><ul><li>Oxford Internet Institute </li></ul><ul><li> </li></ul>