Lammi2011

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Lammi2011

  1. 1. Estimating the effects on distributions of interactions between climate and habitat Bob O'Hara BiK-F Frankfurt am Main Germany This talk at http://www.slideshare.net/oharar/lammi2011
  2. 3. Species do complicated things The bustards http://www.flickr.com/photos/47456200@N04/4361912613/
  3. 4. We should add these to our models
  4. 5. How SDMs Are Run Now Climate Variables
  5. 6. Trying to peer inside the box
  6. 7. Does habitat use change with climate?
  7. 8. Can we tell from distribution data? Database of UK butterfly records 2000 10km x 10km squares
  8. 9. Speckled Wood Butterfly Photo: bramblejumgle http://www.flickr.com/photos/bramblejungle/2732259482/
  9. 10. Orange Tip
  10. 11. Climate & Habitat <ul><li>12 habitat types
  11. 12. Water
  12. 13. Coastal
  13. 14. Bog
  14. 15. Heath
  15. 16. Montane
  16. 17. Broad-leaf Woodland
  17. 18. Coniferous Woodland
  18. 19. Arable
  19. 20. Grassland
  20. 21. Bracken
  21. 22. Urban
  22. 23. Bare Ground </li></ul><ul><li>3 climate types </li><ul><li>GDD5 : Growing Degree Days above 5 º C
  23. 24. MTCO : Mean Temperature of Coldest Month
  24. 25. March-August rainfall </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Latitude
  25. 26. Longitude </li></ul>
  26. 27. Modelling strategy Use an observation model to estimate actual presence
  27. 28. Modelling strategy Climate Variables Habitat Cold Hot Fit logistic regression to explain presences Habitat Effect
  28. 29. Climate Habitat Interactions Habitat Climate 1 2 3 A B Habitat 1 2 3 Climate A B
  29. 30. Handles to be turned To remove the variables that have little effect Variable Selection MCMC (OpenBUGS)
  30. 31. Climate and Habitat Effects
  31. 32. Climate and Habitat Effects
  32. 33. The effect of adding coniferous forest to different parts of the UK Reduces presence Improves presence
  33. 34. Changing Climate GDD 5 Temperature in coldest month Summer Rainfall
  34. 35. Orange Tip
  35. 36. Effects of adding grassland for the Orange Tip Grassland Bare Ground
  36. 37. Effects of Increasing GDD5
  37. 38. Some obvious conclusions <ul><li>Might be better to improve marginal habitat </li></ul>(or marginal weather) <ul><li>Habitat use at range margins can be different </li></ul>
  38. 39. Thank you
  39. 40. Coniferous Woodland Effects

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