Get everything that pro gamblers must know for week 4 of NFL picks. Critical NFL injuries, who is the public betting, line moves, against the spread and over-under numbers and more from OffshoreInsiders.com or @offshoreInsider on Twitter
The Denver Broncos take on the New York Jets in a Thursday Night Football contest, ugly to
fans, but gorgeous to bettors. Denver is 0-3 SU, but 2-1 to the number, going under 2-1. The
Jets are 0-3 both SU and ATS, going over 2-1. They’ve lost all three games by double-digits. The
Jets have the second worst margin of cover in the league at -10.3 points per game. Home teams
not laying more than two-points are 74-61-2 ats if off three straight double-digit losses. That of
course favors New York. The posted total has jumped around, but if it drops to 40.5, note that
total of 40.5 or less have gone under 25-11 the last two seasons.
Brett Rypien becomes the third Bronco to start at QB this season. Denver is without Von Miller,
Jurell Casey, Courtland Sutton, Phillip Lindsay and A.J. Bouye. The Jets are minus Le’Veon Bell,
Breshard Perriman, and Denzel Mims.
Odds: New York is -1 and 41, pretty much straight across the board on both. It’s essentially back
to where is started as New York was a P but -117 and 41 when it opened.
Public betting percentages: Though 56 percent of tickets written are on Denver, 70 percent of
cash is on the Jets. A slight edge of 51 percent of bets on the over, but a whopping 90 percent
of the cash is as well.
Power ratings: Power ratings have Denver -3 and 40.5 with a projected final of 21-17 in favor of
the road team.
Computer simulations ATS and OU: One of the top commercial simulators has Denver winning
20-19 with Broncos covering 53 percent of the time and the under at 53 percent, though that
projection is based on a total of 40. Another has the power rating of NYJ -3 and 37 with New
York covering -1 at 55.3-42.7 rate. At 41 points, 61.2 percent of simulations go under to 35.2
Against the spread trends: Denver is 6-0 after getting less than 90 yards rushing their last game
and 10-3 off loss of 14 or more points, also 10-3 on TNF. However, they are 8-23 after allowing
more than 350 total yards in their previous game. New York 2-6 overall.
Over-under trends: Denver under 12-3 after allowing less than 90 yards rushing their last game,
Top expert pick on today’s card is from Joe Duffy. JDP is a solid 9-5 the last 14, including Astros
in consecutive days as +140 and +120. Nobody has dominated any sport the way Joe Duffy has
the NFL for decades. Duffy has a Thursday Night Football total to start a sensational week at