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Sports handicapping splits, home-road dichotomy


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Squares looks at a team's profile and notice splits, most notably home/road and ride them. Dumb dumbs. Sharps do just the opposite. Joe Duffy, CEO of tells you the sharp way to bet splits

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Sports handicapping splits, home-road dichotomy

  1. 1. Handicapping Splits
  2. 2. What are splits? How a pitcher or team does in a subcategory, the most popular being home/road dichotomy Most common usage is home/away stats
  3. 3. Sharp versus square usage •Prevailing theory if one or both teams substantially better at home than road, go with home team o False, such stats rarely hold up o Fool’s Gold is going with home underdogs if their home winning percentage much better than road teams away winning percentage o Road favorite is almost always sharp bet o “Louder” the statement, the stronger it is
  4. 4. Why do anti-splits do so well? •Very rarely, especially in pro sports, is a team truly Jekyll and Hyde •Splits regress to the mean •SU stats overrated anyway, though even points per game margin splits don’t hold up •Use oddsmakers knowledge against them o Counterintuitive odds; follow the “message
  5. 5. Don’t outsmart yourself Think outside the box  Zig while square zag  If your capper advises you to ride splits, run like hell