MLB Use Oddsmakers Knowledge Against Them.pptx

Joe Duffy
Joe DuffyOwner, OffshoreInsiders.com at OffshoreInsiders.com
Use Oddsmakers’ Knowledge Against
Them Applies in MLB Too!
OffshoreInsiders.com
 Use oddsmakers knowledge against them. MLB no exception
 Worse team (based on winning percentage) favorite is very good
bet
o Even more impressive on runline
o Moneyline and ATS, SU record most deceptive stat from capping
standpoint
 Colder and inferior pitcher better value
o Public loves better, hot pitchers
o Big favorites better in recent years, especially on runline
 Oddsmakers tell you a team has best chance to win in recent play, listen to
them
o Example if they are favorite after three straight games as dog of 140 or more
o Ditto, total lower than usual, generally an UNDER
 Early in my industry days was told, bet WITH opposite streaks of at least 3
o One team at least 3 game, win streak other lost at least 3, but on hotter team
o Opposite is true especially if colder team the favorite
 Regression to the mean
 Golden Rule, if line does not make sense based on W-L record or recent
streaks, it makes dollars
o Pros think counterintuitive
MLB Use Oddsmakers Knowledge Against Them.pptx
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MLB Use Oddsmakers Knowledge Against Them.pptx

  • 1. Use Oddsmakers’ Knowledge Against Them Applies in MLB Too! OffshoreInsiders.com
  • 2.  Use oddsmakers knowledge against them. MLB no exception  Worse team (based on winning percentage) favorite is very good bet o Even more impressive on runline o Moneyline and ATS, SU record most deceptive stat from capping standpoint  Colder and inferior pitcher better value o Public loves better, hot pitchers o Big favorites better in recent years, especially on runline
  • 3.  Oddsmakers tell you a team has best chance to win in recent play, listen to them o Example if they are favorite after three straight games as dog of 140 or more o Ditto, total lower than usual, generally an UNDER  Early in my industry days was told, bet WITH opposite streaks of at least 3 o One team at least 3 game, win streak other lost at least 3, but on hotter team o Opposite is true especially if colder team the favorite  Regression to the mean  Golden Rule, if line does not make sense based on W-L record or recent streaks, it makes dollars o Pros think counterintuitive