Grandmaster Handicapper
Joe Duffy, OffshoreInsiders.com

•Preseason football big gap between sharp and square
◦Especially non-dress rehearsal week
◦Used to be week 3-of-4, now 2-of-3
•Bad line moves
◦Chasing steam even worse idea in NFLX for good reason
•DO NOT bet on teams starting the most regulars
◦In non-dress rehearsal week they play 2-3 series maximum
•DO NOT bet on teams with former starting QBs as backups
◦Generally locked in as veteran backup
◦Almost always underachieving, washed up, destined to be journey backups
◦Go with young, hungry QBs convinced they can start

• DO NOT bet on teams because first year head coach “eager to get a win”
• They know personnel less than veteran coaches and are more inclined to look at everyone
• Hence fading line moves a good bet
• Contrarian better in NFLX too
• Love teams playing young, hungry potential starters
• Most importantly, DO NOT be square who outsmarts himself and claims preseason is a craps
• Books and squares hate uncertainty