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BALTIMORE +4.5 Pittsburgh
First of all, let me refute claims that home field advantage is out the window. Home teams are
better both SU and ATS in 2020 than they were last year. Though we agree HFA is about two-
points this year rather than three, we have an undefeated team against a team that is 6-4 SU.
When we have an inferior road team based on SU record yet not a large underdog, the road
team is 147-83-7 ATS. We have a similar angle that has to do with difference in wins, yet spread
implies they are much more evenly matched it 165-107-7. Baltimore has lost two straight and
obviously Pittsburgh has won 10 in a row. However, when teams are in opposite streaks, going
with colder team is 75-44-2 under specific situations. It’s 58-28 for 67.4 percent when the net
difference is 12 or better (Pittsburgh +10, Baltimore -2 game streak). Road teams in revenge
under specific situations is 315-256-12.