1. NFL Week 3 Picks
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2. Joe Duffy’s Picks at OffshoreInsiders.com
• 2-0 Wise Guys this Week
• Wise Guy among 6 NFL winners
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3. Baltimore vs. Jacksonville
Moved over a key number as Baltimore opened at -2.5, now -3.5
Ravens 2-0 against the spread by 14.5 points per game, second best in league among teams that played
two games
Ravens very thinned at LB and down to three healthy ILB
Buccaneers vs. Vikings
Sam Bradford out for Vikings
Case Keenum started twice against Tampa in 2015, won both with 4 TDs and an interception
Dalvin Cook, feast or famine, hit for loss on 9-of-34 carries, yet averages 5.6 yards per carry
o Barry Sanders-like
Winston with Mike Evans, OJ Howard, Desean Jackson
Jacquizz Rogers averages 3.5 yards per carry as Dog Martin’s replacement
Jameis Winston QB rating of 85 or higher in five of last six road games
Tampa held Chicago to just 20 yards rushing
Teams that allowed 28 or fewer yards rushing last game are 63-49 against the spread (favors Tampa)

4. Falcons vs. Lions
 Detroit 2-0 against the spread with league best 15.8 margin of cover
 Atlanta over 17-4 last 21
 Undefeated home underdogs or very small favorites are 25-9
o Oddsmakers imply they are the inferior team despite record
o 84.6 percent of road team has a loss
 An angle based on early season overreaction to last year is 45-20 and says to fade Falcons
Free pick: DETROIT +3
Giants vs. Eagles
 Giants one of three teams in NFL with double-digit negative against the spread margin at 0-2 for
-13.5
 Underdogs teams with -13 or worse against the spread margin and off back-to-back games in
which they failed to cover by double-digits are 32-16 against the spread (favors Giants)
 Philadelphia over 14-0 off a loss in which they had more third downs than punts
 Eagles 0-13 at home versus divisional foe off a loss in which they turned ball over two or more
times

5. Texans vs. Patriots
New England biggest over team in NFL, going over 2-0 by 11.2
New England vulnerable to big play allowing 12 plays of 20 or more yards already, with four of 40 or more
Chiefs vs. Chargers
Kansas City second biggest over team in NFL, going over both by 11 points per game
Chargers starting CB Jason Verrett is out for the year
KC 11-0 road if line +/- 3 points of pick off a home win in which they have fewer total yards
Seahawks vs. Titans
Seattle under both by 22.2 points per game average
Broncos vs. Bills
Buffalo under both by 20 points per game average
Denver over 16-0 as non-divisional favorites to a team that had less than 26:15 time of possession last game

6. Browns vs. Colts
 Cleveland 1-20 SU last 21 and road favorites
 First time since 1998 a team has lost 20-of-21 and is a road favorite
 Indianapolis new QB Jacoby Brissett still learning offense
Saints vs. Panthers
 Teams that allow at least 28 fewer points per game than their opponent are 25-12 against the s

7. Steelers vs. Bears
 Teams off a game in which they got 22 or less yards rushing were 69-40 against the spread as
o 16-8 when home underdogs
 Heat on Mike Glennon for Bears
o Mitch Trubisky
 Second-year RB Jordan Howard just 59 yards rushing so far on 22 carries
 WR Markus Wheaton is probable to make his debut
o Speedy WR, opens it up, possibly for Howard
 Steelers sensational rookie T.J. Watt should play after leaving Vikings game with an injury
 Bears G Kyle Long pretty good chance he will return
 Undefeated vs. winless teams are 55-33-3 against the spread in week 3 or later as long as und
o 73-18 SU

8. Bengals vs. Packers
Bengals nine points through two games
Cincinnati won the last three SU
Cincinnati first team since 1939 to open up with two home games and not score a TD
Cincinnati fired OC Ken Zampese and elevated QB coach Bill Lazor
o Hardly think he’d get conservative
o Element of surprise
Andy Dalton far and away worst passer rating in league at 47.2
o Consistently inconsistent
Pack great defensive effort versus Seattle, but horrid to Atlanta
New nitro defense uses S at LB to be more athletic
Jordy Nelson, Green Bay WR will be game-time decision
RT Brayan Buluga is questionable to make his debut for Pack
WR Randall Cobb is also questionable
Not shockingly, Green Bay among strongest public bets of the week, especially of home teams (as public loves
Cincinnati TE Tyler Eifert is out
o 127 career receptions
Top consensus: Denver, Pittsburgh, Oakland