Two teams that are winless ATS, SU, and have gone under their only contest clash as week 2
NFL odds commence with the Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns. The Browns are off a
32-point rout at the hands of Baltimore. Teams off a 32 point or more loss are139-1114-11,
including 13-6 if laying six or more. However, of mild surprise considering week 2 overreaction
is common in NFL betting, teams off a week 1 loss of 32 or more are 1-7 since 1999. This record
is both SU and ATS by a 31.2-12.4 margin.
Odds: Cleveland is laying -6 with a total of 43.5. Both are down from the opening odds of -7.5
and 46.
Public betting percentages: The public is more willing to bet on underdogs this season,
presumably with the uncertainty as 56 percent of bets and 64 percent of cash on the Bengals. A
slight majority of 51 percent of both tickets and cash are on the over.
Power ratings: Cleveland is projected to win 23-21 with math lines at Browns -1.5 and 43.5.
Computer simulations ATS: One of our top projection models did 10,000 simulations and found
Cleveland covering -6 at 53 percent of the time. Another says Cleveland should be laying eight
points and has them covering 56.6 percent to 40.8, the rest pushes.

Computer simulations OU: Of 10,000 simulations from one of the industry’s elite simulations,
59 percent went over the 43.5. The other elite one says the total should be 47 and has 59.7
percent of simulations going over, 40.3 under.
Against the spread trends: Cincinnati is 33-16-2 in September and 0-4 after allowing more than
350 total yards in their previous game. Cleveland is 16-38 off loss. The favorite has covered 8-
of-10 meetings.
Over-under trends: The series has gone over 4-0-1 lately. Cincinnati has gone under 8-1-1 away
dogs. Cleveland has gone under the total five straight Thursday night contests.
Top expert pick on today’s card is from NFL specialist Joe Duffy, the best ever. JDP is back on
fire in the NBA plays since adding top three computer simulation/power ratings programs to our
arsenal. We are 8-4 in NBA. Thursday night NFL side and total led by Wise Guy. We often
skip sides and totals on primetime games. In fact, last week SNF, TNF, two MNF, we had just
won pick and hit it. Tonight, Wise Guy side, Major total on TNF. MLB side added for night
action. 3-1 NHL playoffs, get NHL total to complete a three-sport sweep! Get the picks now
Three regular rotation college football winners, plus Added Rotation Total of the Month!
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