2013 NCAA Football BettingBeating College Football Odds
OffshoreInsiders.com Many of the preseason college footballpublications, the most notable being Phil Steele’spreseason picks have hit the newsstands. While Ihave warned against archaic habit of having suchsupersede timelier intel available all over the web,here is the offseason college football watch listfrom a sports handicapping standpoint.
OffshoreInsiders.com Texas A&M a likely fade: Last season, the Aggieswere the extreme rarity of upgrading to a betterconference and thriving. But everything went rightfor them, most notably the emergence of JohnnyManziel. Remember our Golden Rule that it is easier to bethe hunter than the hunted. Exacerbated by JohnnyFootball’s ill-advised offseason comments, thepressure cooker puts them in uncharted waters.Look for their spread record to be well into thenegative.
Vegas Insider College Football West Virginia a season long team to bet on and betunders: Last year WVU followed a pattern muchmore common among teams progressing to asuperior league. They had the early seasonadrenalin and the element of surprise, but theunprecedented strength of schedule wore on themas they went from early season Cinderella topunching bag.
OffshoreInsiders.com Continued…Head coach Dana Holgorsen has four verygood running backs, but lost star QB Geno Smith and histop three wideouts. However, with an underratedrunning game in a league where teams are moreexperienced at stopping the pass, the Mountaineers aregoing to pull of some upsets, likely with a ball controloffense never seen before by any team coached byHolgorsen. Yet, consistent with the limitations of preseasonpublications, I will be keeping a very close eye on ifHolgorsen adjusts the system around the talent or insistson his players adapting to a wide-open offense.
NCAAFTips toVegas odds Arizona’s improved defense: Rich Rodriquez plays achuck and duck offense. This puts the onus on thedefense, constantly placing them back on the field.Ravaged by injuries and learning a complicated newdefense, the Wildcats defense was fetid in 2012.Now familiar with the schemes, that unit returns 20players who started at least one game last year. As any sports betting champ is well aware, the paceof the offense will keep games high scoring, but theunderrated defense will retain many of the bloatedtotals under.
Beat DonBest Odds CFB Duke, team lunchpail: For handicappers who believegames are won at the point of attack, Duke is the perfectdark horse. They return both guards and tackles on theoffensive line, a combined 100 starts. Clemson built for 2013: Among the reasons Clemson QBTajh Boyd returned is that while last year was a majorsuccess, the team was built for a breakout 2013.However, the Tigers have a long history of falteringunder such circumstances. Look for Dabo Sweeney tojump to the head of the class of “great recruiter, not agreat coach” and Clemson to be one of the worst moneyline team among BCS schools.
OffshoreInsiders.com Louisville, classic hunter to the hunted: Louisville isupgrading their schedule just as Charlie Strong hasraised the expectations for the Cardinals. Time andtime again, this combination has made for a greatfade. Look for Cards to falter as they areoverwhelmed by an unprecedented toughschedule.
Top Ranked Sports Handicappers 2013 Hard luck Michigan State will rebound: There is nosuch thing as “law of averages.” If you ever hear ahandicapper pick a game based on such a lack ofunderstanding of statistics, avoid him completely. But Michigan State had the most deceptive recordin the BCS last year losing five game by a combined13 points. The offense has a lot more talent thanthey showed last year. Look for them to pull ofsome upsets.
BettingAmerican Football Never underestimate motivational intangibles inBilly Walter’s picks. Last seasons’ tough lossesmakes us believe MSU will not suffer any emotionalletdowns in the fourth quarter. Smart gamblers take the term “Watch List” literally.Practice reports may shed new light and our“checkmarks” on which way we are leaning aresubject to change as emerging facts dictate.