Week 3 of NFL betting concludes with arguably the biggest game of the season as the
Kansas City Chiefs take on the Baltimore Ravens. The possible AFC Championship
Game preview sees both teams 2-0 SU. Each team has split their totals going over and
under once. KC is 1-1 to the number, Baltimore 2-0. Baltimore is topping the
oddsmakers by a league leading 17.2 points per game. Only Green Bay is beating the
bookies by an average of more than double-digits, though of course every other teams,
sans tonight’s foes, have played three games.
Teams with a 15 or better margin of cover average for the year are 100-124-8, including
88-116-7 if not a home underdog. This of course would say to fade Baltimore and bet on
KC.
Odds: Baltimore is either -3 with juice in the -119 or -120 range or -3.5 with juice at even
money at books. The total is as low as 54.5, but as high as 55.5. The game opened at -
1.5 and 52. Some consider opening line when all bookies have one, AKA “widely
available” opening line. Many love world opener for power lines and other purposes.
Public betting percentages: 58 percent of bets and 64% of money is on Kansas City. On
one hand, the public loves favorites, but they do tend to jump on high-quality

underdogs, so the fact they love the defending Super Bowl champs as puppies is not a
surprise.
Power ratings: The Ravens should be -3.5 with a total of 50. They are projected to win
27-24.
Computer simulations ATS: One of our top projection models did 10,000 simulations
and found Baltimore winning 29-24 with the Ravens covering -3 at 52 percent of the
time and the game going under 55 percent. Even with the pushes, the model represents
only a mild lean to the Ravens, but with the added juice at -3, it is essentially a wash. At
+3.5, the other elite model has KC covering 55.1-44.9, but only 46.6-44.9 at +3, with
about nine percent pushing. At 54.5, 54.9 percent of simulations go over.
Against the spread trends: Kansas City 7-0 after accumulating more than 250 yards
passing in their previous game, 4-0-1 MNF, 9-1 away dog. Baltimore is 9-1 to AFC.
Over-under trends: Kansas City over 15-5 underdogs, but under 35-16 after allowing
more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Top expert pick on today’s card is from TGO. Stevie Vincent is back, back in the
offshore groove. Or Vegas or your home state groove. Today only Stevie Vincent four
free days with weekly pick pack. At 5-2 football the last two days, TGO has Pro Football
Monday Night Game of the Year. Bet 6-9 times your normal amount! Winners at
OffshoreInsiders.com