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Poland 2016 OECD Economic Survey investing in infrastructure and skills Warsaw 22 March

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Poland 2016 OECD Economic Survey investing in infrastructure and skills Warsaw 22 March

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Poland 2016 OECD Economic Survey investing in infrastructure and skills Warsaw 22 March

  1. 1. www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-Poland.htm 2016 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF POLAND Investing in infrastructure and skills Warsaw, 22 March 2016 @OECD @OECDeconomy
  2. 2. • Key messages • Ensuring sound public finances • Maintaining financial stability • Strengthening employment and job quality • Enhancing skills • Improving the business environment • Raising infrastructure investment 2 Outline
  3. 3. Key messages 3
  4. 4. Growth has been robust 4 Source: OECD, Economic Outlook 98 Database (and updates) . Real GDP growth, 2007-15 Average annual growth rates
  5. 5. Investment in infrastructure and skills will support higher living standards and well-being 5 Source: OECD, National Accounts and Productivity Databases. Labour productivity levels USD per hour worked (PPPs), 2014
  6. 6. Raising employment and attracting workers will help head off extreme demographic pressures 6 Source: United Nations (2015), World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision. Working-age population Percentage change, 2015-60 Migration’s impact on working-age population Contribution to percentage change, 2015-60
  7. 7. Ensuring sound public finances 7
  8. 8. There is a risk of fiscal slippage 8 Debt simulations Per cent of GDP Source: OECD (2015), Economic Outlook 98 Database (and updates), OECD Long-Term Database and OECD calculations.
  9. 9. Higher revenues are needed 9 Source: European Commission (2015), Study to quantify and analyse the VAT Gap in the EU Member States. VAT revenue shortfall due to tax breaks Per cent of potential revenue, 2013  Withdraw reduced VAT rates and exemptions  Increase property and green taxes  Strengthen the tax administration
  10. 10. Maintaining financial stability 10
  11. 11. The financial system is sound, despite lower profits 11 Bank profitability and capital adequacy 1. 12-month profits in percent of 12-month assets. 2. Median capital ratio (core capital over unweighted assets). Source: KNF and Narodowy Bank Polski.
  12. 12. Maintaining financial stability 12  Carefully assess the benefits and costs of a possible conversion of foreign- currency-denominated mortgages.  Develop further the domestic mortgage bond market to reduce bank reliance on short-term funding. Share of foreign-currency-denominated loans Source: ECB.
  13. 13. Strengthening employment and job quality 13
  14. 14. Employment of women needs to increase 14 Source: OECD, Education at a Glance database. Enrolment in childcare, 2013 1-3 year olds  Develop childcare facilities  Develop long-term care facilities  Move towards individual taxation
  15. 15. Improving the employment of seniors 15 1. Measured as inactive population aged 65 and over as a ratio to the 15-64 employed population. Source: European Commission (2015), The Ageing Report.  Increase the statutory pension age, as previously planned.  If early retirement is to be allowed, it should be at the same age for men and women and at actuarially neutral discounts. Economic old-age dependency ratio1 Per cent
  16. 16. Access to regular jobs needs to improve 16 Source: OECD, Labour Force Statistics Database. Temporary employment As a percentage of total dependent employment, 2014  Strengthen labour law enforcement and further align contributions on civil and labour law contracts  An earned income tax credit could strengthen incentives for low-wage workers to take up a regular job
  17. 17. Improving skills 17
  18. 18. Skills need to increase further 18 Source: OECD, Survey of International Adult Skills. 220 230 240 250 260 270 280 290 300 ITA ESP FRA IRL POL AUT USA DEU DNK GBR KOR OECD CAN SVK CZE BEL EST NOR SWE AUS NLD FIN JPN Literacy proficiency scores for those aged 16-65, 2012  Continue to expand access to early childhood education, particularly for the poor  Continue to strengthen individual support for weaker students  Develop a basic skills strategy
  19. 19. Basic vocational schools need reform 19 1. Mean PIAAC literacy proficiency score for Polish adults having attended technical schools. 2. Mean PIAAC literacy proficiency score for Polish adults having attended basic vocational education. 3. Mean PIAAC literacy proficiency score for Polish adults with less than upper secondary education. Source: OECD (2013), OECD Skills Outlook 2013 and OECD calculations.  Attract the best teachers to basic vocational schools, e.g. through attractive pay and career prospects  Encourage more enterprises to offer work placements for vocational students0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 POL³ POL² ITA BEL ESP FRA IRL POL¹ POL SVK GBR DNK USA OECD NOR EST DEU CAN AUS CZE AUT KOR SWE NLD FIN JPN Full sample Technical schools ¹ Basic vocational ² Less than upper secondary ³ POLAND Mean PIAAC literacy proficiency score for 16- 29 year-olds with vocational education, 2012
  20. 20. Adult education will be key 20 1. Less than upper secondary education, ISCED levels 0-2. 2. Percentage of individuals having had training in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. Source: Eurostat.  Offering shorter and modular courses outside of working hours is the right approach to enhance participation  Validation of experience and skills might be particularly helpful for migrants and older workers  Language and computer training will be important Participation in continuing education of low- educated 25-64 year-olds¹ 2014, per cent²
  21. 21. Strengthening the quality of tertiary education 21 Source: OECD, Education at a Glance 2015 Database.  Link university teachers’ pay and career prospects to their performance  Strengthen ties with business and foreign universities  Continue efforts to set up high-quality orientation services for pupils and students. Tertiary education attainment rates of individuals aged 25 to 34 Per cent
  22. 22. Attracting workers would benefit Poland 22 Source: OECD, International Migration Database.  Advertise Polish job, investment and business opportunities abroad  Ease foreign credentials recognition  Provide information on how to work in Poland for return migrants and foreign immigrants alike.  Train job counsellors to advise immigrants and people who want to set up a business Poland’s migration flows As a percentage of the working-age population
  23. 23. 23 Improving the business environment and technology diffusion
  24. 24. Improving the business environment 24  Streamline business registration procedures  Monitor the impact of the recent reform of insolvency law  Reform the R&D support system 1. Median duration that corporate lawyers indicate is necessary in practice to complete a procedure with minimum follow-up with government agencies and no extra payments. Source: World Bank (2015), Doing Business, 2016. Days needed to start a business, 2015 ¹
  25. 25. Improving infrastructure investments 25
  26. 26. Public investment has increased, but perceived infrastructure quality is lagging 26 Perceived quality of infrastructurePublic investment % of GDP Source: OECD (2015), Annual National Accounts Database and World Economic Forum. Index from 0 to 7 (highest), 2015 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Electricity supply Transport infrastructure Poland OECD CEEC4 0 1 2 3 4 5 2002-04 2012-14 Poland OECD CEEC4
  27. 27. Improving infrastructure investment 27  Systematically publish cost-benefit analyses  Better integrate environmental and health criteria to the evaluation of projects  Bolster local capacity by: o Providing more central-government assistance. o Increasing incentives for collaboration across levels of government. o Rationalising and standardising purchasing procedures, centralising orders and promoting e-procurement take-up.  Reduce regulatory uncertainty
  28. 28. Greening the infrastructure 28 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 AUS NOR FIN IRL SWE USA DNK GBR PRT ESP FRA CHE EST OECD SVN AUT NLD ITA DEU BEL POL SVK CZE HUN GRC Deaths from air pollution per 100 000 inhabitants, 2013  Ensure that climate change policies are clear and aligned with European and international objectives  Raise green taxes Source: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, http://viz.healthmetricsandevaluation.org/gdb-compare/.
  29. 29. Renewing the energy infrastructure 29  Invest in interconnections in the electricity and the gas sectors  Evaluate the need for a capacity market to help finance new electric capacity  Streamline regulatory procedures for new energy investment projects Source: IEA (2015), Electricity Information 2015; IEA (2015), Electricity and Heat Generation. Electricity generation capacity, 2013 Share of coal in generation capacity MWe per unit of GDP (%) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Poland OECD average 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Poland OECD average
  30. 30. Increasing energy efficiency 30  Monitor the development of the market for “white certificates”  Install “smart meters” for electricity more widely  Ensure a higher take-up of the programme for the construction of energy- efficient housesSource: Eurostat (2015), Final energy consumption of the residential sector. Residential energy use Index, 1990=100
  31. 31. Strengthening transport infrastructure 31  Ensure funding for railways  Develop local spatial plans, and increase collaboration across levels of government  Allow local electronic tolling systems  Improve the management and funding of local roadsSource: OECD (2015), Transport infrastructure investment and maintenance spending. Gross government investment in transport Per cent of GDP
  32. 32. More Information… Disclaimers: The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use of such data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements in the West Bank under the terms of international law. This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. 32

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