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Greece-2016-oecd-economic-survey-ensuring-inclusive-recovery-10-march

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Greece 2016 OECD Economic Survey ensuring inclusive recovery 10 March

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Greece-2016-oecd-economic-survey-ensuring-inclusive-recovery-10-march

  1. 1. http://www.oecd.org/greece/economic-survey-greece.htm 2016 OECD Economic Survey of Greece Ensuring inclusive recovery Athens, 10 March 2016 @OECD @OECDeconomy
  2. 2. THE CRISIS HIT GREECE HARD 2
  3. 3. Poverty has risen sharply 1. Measured as the ratio between the share of national income received by the ninth decile and the first decile. 2. The poverty line is fixed at 50% of median equivalised household disposable income in 2005. Data are available only for 2005, 2007, 2011 and 2013. Source: OECD (2015), In It Together: Why Less Inequality Benefits All. 3
  4. 4. Youth poverty has risen significantly People at risk of poverty or social exclusion Note: This indicator corresponds to the sum of persons who are: at risk of poverty or severely materially deprived or living in households with very low work intensity. Persons are only counted once even if they are present in several sub-indicators. At risk-of-poverty are persons with an equivalised disposable income below the risk-of-poverty threshold, which is set at 60 % of the national median equivalised disposable income (after social transfers). Source: OECD Social Policy database and Eurostat 4
  5. 5. Life satisfaction has dropped Share of satisfied and very satisfied in responses Source: European Commission, Eurobarometer. 5
  6. 6. Unemployment has increased sharply Unemployment rate Source: Updated OECD Economic Outlook 98 database. 6
  7. 7. Public debt has increased drastically Source: Updated OECD Economic Outlook 98 database. 7
  8. 8. Gross financing needs will increase Gross financing needs, as percentage of GDP Source: Updated OECD Economic Outlook No. 98 database, Memorandum of Understanding, OECD Calculations. 8
  9. 9. REFORMS ARE STARTING TO PAY OFF 9
  10. 10. Many reforms have been undertaken Source:OECD (2015) Economic Policy Reforms Going for Growth. Reform responsiveness rates (average 2011-2014) 10
  11. 11. Labour market reform has been substantial Employment Protection Legislation Source: OECD (2015) Labour and social protection directorate database. 11
  12. 12. Fiscal adjustment has been large Change in general government financial position, 2009-2014 1. Includes interest payments. 2. Includes interest payments, in percentage of potential GDP. Source: OECD (2015), Government at a Glance; OECD Economic Outlook 98 database. 12
  13. 13. The economy is slowly turning around Source: Updated OECD Economic Outlook 98 database. Real GDP index 13
  14. 14. Exports are gradually improving Note: Export performance is calculated as the ratio of exports of goods and services to export market. Source: OECD Economic Outlook 98 database. Export performance index 14
  15. 15. Foreign direct investment remains low Source: OECD (2015), Globalisation database. Inward FDI position as percentage of GDP, 2014 15
  16. 16. Reform implementation has been weak Reform implementation since 2010 Note: The graph shows the fraction of prior actions and structural benchmarks for the IMF loans of the respective programs for all reviews corresponding to each category. Targets that were modified or waived are excluded from the analysis. For Greece, the data refer to the Stand-by Agreement of 2010 and the Extended Loan Facility of 2012. Source: OECD calculations based on IMF MONA database 16
  17. 17. Further reforms will boost growth Estimated impact of major reforms on real GDP Source: OECD calculations. 17
  18. 18. MORE STRUCTURAL REFORMS ARE NEEDED TO SUSTAIN INCLUSIVE GROWTH 18
  19. 19. Tax administration is weak Source: OECD (2015) Tax Administration: Comparative information on OECD and other advanced and emerging economies.  Broaden the tax base and strengthen tax administration by giving it more autonomy. 19
  20. 20. Pensions dominate social spending Source: OECD Social policy database and Eurostat.  Do an expenditure review to rebalance social spending.  Implement the guaranteed minimum income and introduce targeted school meal and housing programmes.  Review special pension regimes and introduce a basic pension. Public social spending 20
  21. 21. SMEs cannot access finance easily Venture capital investment is low Source: OECD (2015b) Entrepreneurship at a Glance.  Promote a venture capital system with important direct links to university research and innovation. 21
  22. 22. Non-performing loans are high  Introduce effective incentives and performance targets for banks to monitor their progress in reducing non-performing loans. Non-performing loans comparison Per cent of total loans, 2014Q2 Source: Bank of Greece and IMF Financial Soundness Indicators database. Source: Bank of Greece and IMF Financial Soundness Indicators database. Non-performing loans comparison Per cent of total loans, 2014Q2 22
  23. 23. Product markets remain restricted Product Market Regulation, 2013 Source: OECD (2015) Product Market Regulation database.  Implement the 2012 Better Regulation Law. 23
  24. 24. Regulation in network industries is high Source: OECD (2015) Product Market Regulation database.  Ease regulations in network industries and strengthen the capacity and independence of regulatory agencies. 24
  25. 25. Transport infrastructure is poor 1. 1 = extremely underdeveloped – among the worst in the world; 7 = extensive and efficient – among the best in the world. Source: World Economic Forum, 'The Global Competitiveness Report 2015-16.  Front load the use of European structural funds. 25
  26. 26. Barriers to business are high Source: World Bank (2015a), Doing Business database.  Implement one-stop shop for operating a business and reduce regulatory burden. Procedures needed to get a construction permit 26
  27. 27. Contract enforcement is costly Source: World Bank Doing Business Database.  Reform the judiciary by using more e-justice tools, training judges, out-of-court settlements, model cases, and specialised competition courts. 27
  28. 28. Reforms will bring down debt Source: Updated OECD Economic Outlook No. 98 Database, Consensus Forecast, Memorandum of Understanding, OECD Calculations. Gross government debt 28
  29. 29. Reforms will boost well-being Source: OECD (2015) Well-Being Indicators database. 29
  30. 30.  Adopt key structural reforms to boost growth and enhance administrative capacity to improve overall reform implementation  Make economic growth more inclusive by urgently adopting policies to reduce poverty and inequality and boost employment in the short run. Key recommendations 30
  31. 31.  Broaden the tax base and strengthen tax administration with more autonomy.  Do an expenditure review to rebalance social spending.  Implement the guaranteed minimum income, and introduce targeted school meal and housing programmes.  Review special pension regimes and introduce a basic pension.  Promote a venture capital system with important direct links to university research and innovation. Key recommendations 31
  32. 32.  Introduce effective incentives and performance targets for banks to monitor their progress in reducing non-performing loans.  Implement the 2012 Better Regulation Law.  Ease regulations in network industries and strengthen the capacity and independence of regulatory agencies.  Front load the use of European structural funds.  Implement one-stop shop for operating a business and reduce regulatory burden.  Reform the judiciary by using more e-justice tools, training judges, out-of-court settlements, model cases, and specialised competition courts. Key recommendations 32
  33. 33. 33 More Information… http://www.oecd.org/greece/economic-survey-greece.htm OECD OECD Economics Disclaimers: The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use of such data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements in the West Bank under the terms of international law. This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.

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