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France 2017 OECD Economic Survey towards more inclusive growth and employment

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France 2017 OECD Economic Survey towards more inclusive growth and employment

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France 2017 OECD Economic Survey towards more inclusive growth and employment

  1. 1. http://www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-france.htm 2017 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF FRANCE Towards more inclusive growth and employment Paris, 14 September 2017 @OECD @OECDeconomy
  2. 2. • A long-term strategy would help to reduce public spending and improve its impact on equity • Fostering an inclusive development of skills and employment • Improving life in poor neighbourhoods • Improving the efficiency of the health-care 2 Main messages
  3. 3. Potential growth has slowed 3 Source : OECD (2017), OECD Economic Outlook 101 Database. 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Capital per worker Labour input TFP Potential growth
  4. 4. Too many people are excluded from the labour market 4 Source: OECD (2016), OECD Education at a Glance 2016 Database. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 ISL NLD CHE LUX DEU SWE NOR JPN AUT DNK AUS CZE EST LVA CAN NZL GBR BEL ISR FIN USA OECD SVN PRT POL HUN IRL FRA SVK KOR CHL MEX ESP GRC ITA TUR Youths not in employment, education or training (NEET), 2015 % of the 15-29 population
  5. 5. Public spending is high 5 Per cent of GDP, 2016 Source : OECD (2017), OECD Economic Outlook 101 Database. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 IRL CHE USA JPN CZE EST CAN OECD POL SVK GBR ESP NLD DEU PRT SVN HUN EA16 GRC ITA SWE AUT BEL DNK FIN FRA
  6. 6. Developing a long-term strategy to reduce public spending and taxes 6
  7. 7. Without policy changes the debt-to-GDP is set to increase further 7 Debt simulations (per cent of GDP) Source: OECD calculations based on OECD (2017), OECD Economic Outlook 101 Database. 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 Business as usual¹ Higher interest rate² (+1.4% points) Further improvement in the primary balance (+0.5% points) and higher GDP growth (+0.5% points)
  8. 8. Pension spending and the wage bill explain most of the gap in public spending 8 1. Numbers may not add to totals because of rounding, overlapping across selected spending categories and non-universal coverage of all spending categories. 2. Excluding pre-primary education. Source: OECD Economic Outlook 101 Database; OECD Social Expenditure Database (SOCX); OECD Education at a Glance 2016 Database. Composition of public spending by main component
  9. 9. The average effective age of labour- market exit is low 9 Average effective age of labour-market exit in 20141 1. The effective retirement age shown is for the five-year period 2009-2014. The official pension age is shown for 2014, assuming labour market entry at age 20. 2. Belgium introduced a certain number of measures in 2015 to raise the effective age of labour market exit, focusing on conditions for accessing early retirement. Source : OECD (2015), OECD Pensions at a Glance 2015, OECD Publishing, Paris. Iceland Men Women Korea Mexico Turkey Japan Chile Israel New Zealand Portugal Switzerland United States Ireland Australia Sweden Norway Spain OECD Canada United Kingdom Estonia Czech Republic Denmark Netherlands Germany Hungary Slovenia Austria Belgium² France Poland Luxembourg Finland Italy Greece Slovak Republic 50 55 60 65 70 75505560657075
  10. 10. Corporate tax rates are high 10 Source: Oxford Centre for Business Taxation (2017), CBT Database. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 IRL SVN CZE POL TUR CHE ISL FIN KOR GBR HUN NLD SVK SWE DNK ISR AUT OECD NOR CAN EST ITA LUX CHL PRT GRC NZL MEX AUS DEU ESP BEL JPN FRA USA Average effective corporate tax rates Per cent, 2016
  11. 11. But corporate income tax revenues are low 11 Source: OECD (2017), OECD Revenue Statistics Database. 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 SVN LVA TUR DEU POL HUN GRC ITA EST FRA FIN USA AUT ESP GBR DNK IRL NLD OECD ISL SWE ISR CHE CAN PRT KOR MEX BEL SVK CZE JPN LUX NZL NOR AUS CHL Corporate income tax revenues As a percentage of GDP, 2015
  12. 12. The personal income tax represents a low share of total tax revenues 12 1. 2014 for the OECD. 2. Including the contribution sociale généralisée. Source: OECD (2017), OECD Revenue Statistics Database. Personal income tax², 18.9% Corporate income tax, 4.6 % Social security contributions, 37.1 %Taxes on payroll and workforce, 3.5 % Taxes on property, 8.9 % Taxes on goods and services, 24.4% Other taxes, 2.7% A. France Personal income tax², 24.0% Corporate income tax, 8.8 % Social security contributions, 26.2 % Taxes on payroll and workforce, 1.1 % Taxes on property, 5.6 % Taxes on goods and services, 32.6% Other taxes, 1.8% B. OECD 2015¹
  13. 13. Exemptions and VAT tax breaks lead to a substantial shortfall 13 1 Ratio between the actual value-added tax (VAT) revenue collected and the revenue that would theoretically be raised if VAT was applied at the standard rate to all final consumption. It implicitly measures the share of potential tax revenues lost due to the existence of preferential tax treatments. Source: OECD (2016), Consumption Tax Trends 2016: VAT/GST and excise rates, trends and policy issues, OECD Publishing, Paris. VAT revenue ratio1 (%), 2014 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 MEX GRC ITA ESP TUR POL GBR ISL BEL NLD SVK PRT FRA IRL AUS CAN LVA FIN DEU OECD NOR HUN SWE CZE DNK AUT SVN CHL ISR KOR JPN EST CHE NZL LUX
  14. 14. Main recommendations to reduce public spending and taxes  Meet the ambitious targets to reduce public spending and taxes  Move towards a single pension system to improve labour mobility and lower management costs  Then, gradually increase the minimum retirement age in line with life expectancy  Lower social contribution rates and corporate income tax rates, as planned  Use lower social contributions as an opportunity to give a bigger role to the progressive income tax, e.g. by lowering the basic allowance  Remove personal tax breaks on capital income, and lower the tax rate  Withdraw reduced rates for VAT, and increase green taxes 14
  15. 15. Fostering an inclusive development of skills and employment 15
  16. 16. Too many adults have weak basic skills 16 Source: OECD (2016), Skills Matter: Further Results from the Survey of Adult Skills, OECD Skills Studies, OECD Publishing, Paris. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 JPN FIN SVK NLD CZE NZL NOR AUS KOR EST SWE BEL AUT DNK CAN GBR IRL USA DEU POL OECD FRA SVN GRC ISR ESP ITA TUR CHL % % Share of adults 16-65 scoring below level 2 in PIAAC's reading proficiency scale 2012-2015
  17. 17. Strengthen apprenticeships and public employment services 17 Source: Ministère de l’Éducation nationale, DEPP. 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Number of apprentices with a low level of education At year-end, thousands
  18. 18. It is difficult to get a permanent contract 18 1. Employees on temporary contract in year t-1 but declaring having been hired on a permanent contract in year t. Source : Eurostat. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 ESP FRA GRC ITA POL EU28 FIN PRT SVK DEU LUX HUN BGR SWE BEL NLD SVN CZE IRL LTU NOR EST AUT DNK ISL ROU LVA GBR Transition rates from temporary to permanent contracts, 2015 (%, 16-64)¹
  19. 19. Unionisation is low 19 Source : OECD (2017), Labour Force Statistics Database. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 EST TUR FRA KOR HUN USA CZE POL SVK MEX AUS CHL CHE OECD ESP JPN NLD DEU NZL PRT SVN GRC ISR GBR CAN IRL AUT LUX ITA NOR BEL DNK SWE FIN ISL Trade union density, 2014 Trade union members in per cent of employees,%
  20. 20. But the collective bargaining coverage rate is very high 20 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 TUR KOR USA MEX POL LVA NZL JPN CHL HUN EST SVK ISR CAN GBR GRC OECD CZE CHE DEU LUX AUS SVN NOR PRT ESP ITA DNK NLD ISL SWE FIN BEL AUT FRA Collective bargaining coverage rate, 2013 Per cent of all wage earners with right to bargaining Source: Amsterdam Institute for Advanced Labour Studies (2017), ICTWSS Database.
  21. 21. Main recommandations to foster an inclusive development of skills 21  Simplify the personal training account (CPF), and reduce the number of similar schemes  Improve information about providers by strengthening the quality label system  Develop apprenticeships in vocational lycées  Continuously evaluate active labour market policies  Introduce professional judges to guide lay assessors in labour courts  Merge inactive sectors and those that lack the critical mass for effective bargaining  Ensure that the extension procedure for sectoral agreements takes account of their economic and social impacts, and authorise exemptions  Encourage sectoral agreements that are differentiated by the size or age of the business, for example  Reduce the number of institutions that represent workers  Ensure better protection for workers that represent colleagues
  22. 22. Improving life in poor neighbourhoods 22
  23. 23. Residents of poor neighbourhoods face various social handicaps 23 1. Percentage point gap in the odds of unemployment for poor neighborhoods' residents versus residents of surrounding urban areas; employed native-born women aged 30 to 49 with a baccalauréat only are identified as the reference group. 2. Refers to post lower secondary education vocational qualifications such as: Certificat d’aptitude professionnelle (CAP) and Brevet d’études professionnelles (BEP) Source : ONPV (2016), Rapport annuel 2015. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 ≤ Lower secondary Below upper secondary ² Upper secondary Tertiary Poor neighbourhoods Surrounding urban areas Likelihood of unemployment by place of residence and education Adjusted for personal characteristics, education and immigrant status¹, 15-64 (%)
  24. 24. Reducing inequalities in educational opportunities 24 1. Percentage variance in the PISA reading score for children aged 15 years explained by family environment (parents’ level of education and income, social and occupational status, cultural possessions, books and education resources available at home). Source: OECD (2016), PISA 2015 Results (Vol. II): Excellence and Equity in Education, OECD Publishing, Paris. 0 5 10 15 20 25 0 5 10 15 20 25 ISL NOR EST CAN USA TUR GBR LVA FIN KOR ISR JPN DNK AUS ITA NLD SWE SVN NZL MEX OECD GRC IRL ESP POL DEU CHE PRT CHL AUT SVK BEL FRA CZE LUX HUN Impact of socio-economic background on pupils' reading performance¹ (per cent, 2015)
  25. 25. Urban renewal needs a stronger focus on well-being 25
  26. 26. Improving access to higher-quality housing for the poor 26 1. The first income decile includes households with average annual income below EUR 8 000, while the 10th decile refers to households with average annual income above EUR 39 000. Source : INSEE, Housing Survey 2013. Housing tenure across households by income decile¹ Metropolitan France, primary residences, 2013 0 20 40 60 80 100 0 20 40 60 80 100 I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X Total Social rental dwellings Market rented dwellings Owner-occupied dwellings Other Income deciles
  27. 27. Main recommendations for improving life in poor neighbourhoods  Continue awareness campaign for recruiters  Better target public spending at transportation, childcare services and face-to- face public services in poor neighbourhoods  Offer attractive salaries and career prospects to excellent teachers in schools with many pupils from disadvantaged backgrounds  Promote an innovative range of different practices in teacher training in order to meet the different needs of pupils  Use urban renewal in poor neighbourhoods as an entry point to offer practical training in firms and basic skills courses  Reduce registration fees, and increase taxes on immovable properties  Tighten obligations to pay higher rents and encourage occupants whose income rises above the eligibility ceiling to move houses 27
  28. 28. Improving the efficiency of the health-care system 28
  29. 29. Health-care quality is high 29 Source: Eurostat (2016), Amenable and Preventable Deaths Statistics. 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 CHE FRA LUX NLD ESP NOR ITA BEL SWE DNK AUT IRL DEU FIN PRT GBR SVN GRC EU28 POL CZE HRV SRB EST SVK HUN BGR LTU ROU LVA Deaths avoidable through better health-care, 2014 Per 100 000 inhabitants
  30. 30. But expenditures are high and likely to increase 30 Source: OECD (2017), OECD Health Statistics Database. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 FRANCE Germany Italy Spain Current health-care spending, 1990-2016 Per cent of GDP
  31. 31. There is room to improve prevention 31 1. The scope of institutional spending is different from the entirety of spending on prevention in France, especially for ordinary consultations, which amount to 9.3 billion euros in 2014 according to Drees, i.e. 3.9% of health spending, compared to 2.0% in 2014 according to OECD figures. Source : OECD (2017), OECD Health Statistics Database. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 ISR GRC BEL PRT AUS FRA ESP LVA SVK AUT ISL CHE LUX DNK HUN SVN POL IRL CZE JPN OECD USA NOR DEU SWE EST MEX KOR NLD FIN ITA GBR CAN Spending on prevention, 2015 Per cent of health-care spending ¹
  32. 32. Coordination between different care providers is insufficient 32 Source : Drees (2017), Les établissements de santé – édition 2017. 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Use of emergency departments Population Hospital emergency departments' use Index, 1996=100
  33. 33. Hospital expenditures are high 33 Source : OECD (2017), OECD Health Statistics database. 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 LVA MEX CZE KOR EST PRT CAN ISR SVK HUN POL ESP GBR SWE OECD FIN IRL SVN ITA AUS NOR DNK BEL USA DEU NLD JPN CHE FRA GRC AUT In-patient curative and rehabilitative care, 2015 Per cent of GDP
  34. 34. Developing the use of generics would cut costs 34 Source : OECD (2017), OECD Health Statistics database. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 LUX ITA GRC CHE FRA BEL IRL PRT ESP AUT TUR DNK SVK NLD NZL DEU GBR Value Volume Use of generics, 2015 Share in the reimbursed pharmaceutical market, %
  35. 35. Main recommendations to improve the efficiency of the health-care system 35  Increase health practitioners’ remuneration for prevention and complex chronic diseases, which would help reduce the volume of treatments, prescriptions and drug sales  Make it easier for insurers to contract with group practices  Develop electronic health records  Adjust the activity-based system for hospital funding (Diagnosis Related Groups) to increase rewards for efficiency and quality for public and private hospitals  Strengthen the autonomy of public hospital managers by allowing them to develop their own human resource policies  Lower pharmaceutical spending by developing the use of generics, developing targeted information for hospitals and primary-care providers to promote appropriate prescribing and applying capped reimbursement amounts to a wider range of drugs
  36. 36. For more information Disclaimers: The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use of such data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements in the West Bank under the terms of international law. This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. 36 http://www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-france.htm @OECDeconomy @OECD

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