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Capacity Building and Energy-Economic Modeling


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Economic Modeling Challenges Discussed for the Energy Sector

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Capacity Building and Energy-Economic Modeling

  1. 1. Capacity Building & Energy-Economic Modeling Opportunities & Challenges: Jamaica
  2. 2. Omar Alcock Economist / Researcher / Analyst / Business Consultant
  3. 3. SmallIslandDevelopingState
  4. 4. SmallIslandDevelopingState Capital is Kingston
  5. 5. SmallIslandDevelopingState Capital is Kingston
  6. 6. SmallIslandDevelopingState Capital is Kingston
  7. 7. Labour force of 1.26 million
  8. 8. Labour force of 1.26 million
  9. 9. Labour force of 1.26 million Public debt 125% of GDP
  10. 10. Labour force of 1.26 million Public debt 125% of GDP
  11. 11. Labour force of 1.26 million Public debt 125% of GDP
  12. 12. Labour force of 1.26 million Public debt >125% of GDP
  14. 14. Petroleum fuels Bio-Fuels (ethanol, biodiesel) Electricity (Steam Plants, Gas Turbines, wind farms, hydro plants, solar PV) Bio-Mass (bagasse, woodchips, fuel wood) Bio-Gas FUELS USED
  15. 15. IMPORTS DOMESTIC Jamaica Energy Dependence
  16. 16. Energy Modeling Planning Process Country Development Resources Socio- economic consideration Energy requirement Balancing the Options Supply Consideration Available Technology Financial Implications Environmental Implications Institutional Framework
  17. 17. Energy Planning Main Objective To Provide Information to Decision Makers for Actions to be Implemented
  18. 18. Source: Richard R. Cirillo, Argonne National Laboratory, USA Decision Makers Government agencies Energy companies Investors Planning Data collection Analysis Actions Projects Policies Further study Legislation
  19. 19. Energy Economic Modeling What’s it about? Managing resources for optimal results Sustainable approach to guide planning and decision making Mechanisms for informing, monitoring and evaluating Producing and sometimes requiring specialized technical capacities
  20. 20. Energy Economic Modeling What’s it about? Developing a Series of Simulations And Scenarios Optimizes System Designs Helps to Prioritize Investment Decisions Requires Time To Strategize More Robust Than Simple Trend Analysis Provides Valuable Input During Design Stage
  21. 21. Challenges Limited Persons With Required Skill-sets Data quality control specialists Database management experts Information systems managers Economist and engineers with modeling skills Energy Analysts (trends vs robust tools) Limited View Of The Usefulness Of Models
  22. 22. Why These Challenges Exist? Lack of awareness about the value of economic modeling Limited emphasis on modeling in academic curriculum Limited/lack of opportunities for hands-on application during taught degree programs High turnover rate of staff with the expertise
  23. 23. Opportunities Going Forward Recommendations To Succeed Enhance Economic Modeling Capacity Management Appreciation Or “Buy-in” Clear Understanding of the Value of Economic Modeling and Planning Tools Improve Linkages with Key Stakeholders: Academia, the Public and Private Sectors Institutionalize Modeling to Ensure Informed Decision Making
  24. 24. Further Discussions Omar Alcock Email: Twitter: @ojr_services