Building a more accurate burndown Using Range Estimation in Scrum Agile 2010 Conference August 2010 Arin Sime 434 996 5226 [email_address]

Pitfalls of traditional estimation techniques

How long does it take you to get to work? traffic optimistic every day? method of travel

Agile estimation techniques

Agile and Scrum can run into other pitfalls though…

Potential pitfalls: Single-point estimates What about Risk? Implies a set delivery of features Story points are hard to explain

Better accuracy using range estimation

Incorporating range estimation into Scrum

Range estimation in Scrum Poker Still middle of the road, but Green recognizes some risk Orange sees this as really easy Blue sees this as more complicated The likely discussion: Orange and Blue need to compare their visions for this task. Likely Outcome: 8-13? Red and Blue no longer agree: Red is confused or sees big risks

Using ranges in your task list

Using ranges in your task list Enter Low/High =(Lo*0.33)+(Hi*0.67) Sums of Lo, Hi, 2/3; then trend them to zero update daily

Using ranges in your burndown

Ranges help to highlight obstacles and know when to cancel an iteration

We were able to improve on the next iteration, but it was still hard

Ranges help reinforce obstacles Obstacle removed

Using ranges to better communicate

How long? Um… 2 days 4 days Do you know your fudge factor? You Your Boss Big Boss

How long? 2-4 days 2-4 days Ranges help you control your fudge factor You Your Boss Big Boss

Another example: Use ranges to better empower your boss or client You Your Boss Big Boss

Perfect – Do it! How long? How much for X? GRRR Umm….. You Your Boss Big Boss 2 days Actually … 4 days 4 days later… 2 days * rate Budget Left: 2 days

Instead…. You Your Boss Big Boss

No thx, do something easier How long? How much for X? YES! You Your Boss Big Boss 2-4 days Done! 2 days later… 2-4 days * rate Budget Left: 2 days

Potential pitfalls of range estimation

Potential pitfalls of range estimation Really Wide Ranges Not everything can take 2 – 200 hours or you lose all credibility

Potential pitfalls of range estimation Bosses who don’t get it You’re going to have to sell them on how your estimates will improve their decision making ability.

Potential pitfalls of range estimation Pushed back deadlines Ranges are not an excuse to always miss deadlines. But they do make it less of a surprise, and encourage you to be more cautious.

Potential pitfalls of range estimation Is 2/3 the new single-point? Be careful not to just start treating the 2/3 calculated estimate, use the ranges.

Further Reading

Questions? Arin Sime 434 996 5226 [email_address] Twitter.com/ArinSime