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Presentation by OpenSource Connections consultant Arin Sime at Agile2010 conference on how to incorporate range estimation techniques into Scrum.

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- Building a more accurate burndown Using Range Estimation in Scrum Agile 2010 Conference August 2010 Arin Sime 434 996 5226 [email_address]
- Pitfalls of traditional estimation techniques
- How long does it take you to get to work? traffic optimistic every day? method of travel
- Agile estimation techniques
- Agile and Scrum can run into other pitfalls though…
- Potential pitfalls: Single-point estimates What about Risk? Implies a set delivery of features Story points are hard to explain
- Better accuracy using range estimation
- Incorporating range estimation into Scrum
- Range estimation in Scrum Poker Still middle of the road, but Green recognizes some risk Orange sees this as really easy Blue sees this as more complicated The likely discussion: Orange and Blue need to compare their visions for this task. Likely Outcome: 8-13? Red and Blue no longer agree: Red is confused or sees big risks
- Using ranges in your task list
- Using ranges in your task list Enter Low/High =(Lo*0.33)+(Hi*0.67) Sums of Lo, Hi, 2/3; then trend them to zero update daily
- Using ranges in your burndown
- Ranges help to highlight obstacles and know when to cancel an iteration
- We were able to improve on the next iteration, but it was still hard
- Ranges help reinforce obstacles Obstacle removed
- Using ranges to better communicate
- How long? Um… 2 days 4 days Do you know your fudge factor? You Your Boss Big Boss
- How long? 2-4 days 2-4 days Ranges help you control your fudge factor You Your Boss Big Boss
- Another example: Use ranges to better empower your boss or client You Your Boss Big Boss
- Perfect – Do it! How long? How much for X? GRRR Umm….. You Your Boss Big Boss 2 days Actually … 4 days 4 days later… 2 days * rate Budget Left: 2 days
- Instead…. You Your Boss Big Boss
- No thx, do something easier How long? How much for X? YES! You Your Boss Big Boss 2-4 days Done! 2 days later… 2-4 days * rate Budget Left: 2 days
- Potential pitfalls of range estimation
- Potential pitfalls of range estimation Really Wide Ranges Not everything can take 2 – 200 hours or you lose all credibility
- Potential pitfalls of range estimation Bosses who don’t get it You’re going to have to sell them on how your estimates will improve their decision making ability.
- Potential pitfalls of range estimation Pushed back deadlines Ranges are not an excuse to always miss deadlines. But they do make it less of a surprise, and encourage you to be more cautious.
- Potential pitfalls of range estimation Is 2/3 the new single-point? Be careful not to just start treating the 2/3 calculated estimate, use the ranges.
- Further Reading
- Questions? Arin Sime 434 996 5226 [email_address] Twitter.com/ArinSime

- how long does it take you to drive to work? Is that everyday? Traffic? Optimistic?
- Show single point then double point
- Yellow doesn’t know what they’re talking about.