What is the rate of forestland conversion?
What is the current conversion risk?
What are landowners giving?
What are landowners getting?
What are landowners willing to do?
Forest land use change ~1.8% per year
Forest cover change ~0.67% per year
South Sound Land Use Change 1988 - 2004
2037 1901 1885
1978-1979 1988-1989 2001
In/Out of FIA Inventory
Net ownership change
Timberland Ownership Net Flow
What are Landowners Giving?
< 5 miles 5 - 10 miles 10 - 20
20 - 40
> 40 miles
Distance to an Urban Growth Area (miles)
Foregone Revenue for Development by
Parcel Size and Distance to an Urban Area
< 10 acres
10 - 20 acres
20 - 40 acres
> 40 acres
What are Landowners Getting?
Enacted by the Legislature in 1971
A typical 40 acre parcel in the South Sound
pays $40 in property tax when enrolled in the
DFL program vs. $1,036 at highest and best
Add Forest Excise Tax ~$10/acre/year = $440
FFR costs ~$1,200-$2,000/yr for that same
311,000 acres of Designated Forest Lands
$10 million tax-shift to non-DFL properties =
$0.13/$1,000 = $53/yr for a $400k home
Equalize the difference between the market
value of forest lands and the net present value
of managing for timber on those same lands.
Using 5% discount rate = forest NPV rate
Contiguous ownerships at least 20 acres,
undeveloped, and parcels are at least 5 acres
$96m Annuity over $76bn = $1.26/$1,000 =
$500/yr for a $400k home
What are Landowners Willing to
Use the forestland owner survey results to
determine, for a watershed, how much income
would be needed to buy continued forest
$70 million/year = $0.92/$1,000 = $368/yr for a
Forestlands are more at risk now than ever
Loss of infrastructure, aging population, REITs,
DFL program helped to mitigate risk into the
DFL program expensive for local communities
Regulatory takings trump tax incentives 2x - 4x
Zoning – unintended consequences?
Wear et al. – between 20 and 70 ppsm Pf drops
from 75% to 25%
93% of small owners willing to commit to 10
year easement for $200/acre/year, 53% for
Statewide balance of tax incentive programs
rather than at the county level
PSP Local Improvement/Utility Districts
Development right markets (not just TDR)