Sydney market size estimation for car pooling


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Part of the Opportunity Analysis Project in the Venture Lab 2012, Stanford University course.

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Sydney market size estimation for car pooling

  1. 1. Estimation of marketsize for a Sydney car pooling service May 2012
  2. 2. Some relevant statistics for Sydney"The 2008 Household Travel Survey showed that private vehicles were the most frequently used mode of transport for weekday trips for all age groups in the Sydney Statistical Division (68%). Private vehicle travel was the highest for children aged 0 to 10 years (80%) and lowest for those aged 11 to 20 years (55%). Among 11 to 20 year olds, their share of public transport use (26%) was greater than for other age groups mainly because of their usage for educational purposes. For those aged 21 to 30 years, their proportions of public transport use (17%) and walk only (21%) were comparatively higher than other age groups.On average weekday trips in 2008 in Sydney, males and females both recorded nearly equal proportions in using private vehicles (males 69% and females 68%) and public transport (males 12% and females 11%). Males recorded proportionally less walking on average weekday trips than females (males 17% and females 19%).The 2008 NSW State Supplementary Survey showed that, within the Sydney Major Statistical Region, nearly three quarters (73%) of employed people typically travelled by motor vehicle at least part of the journey to their current suburb of employment and more than a quarter (27%) used public transport for at least part of the journey." Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, June 2010
  3. 3. Trend - Traffic volume increasing and average speed unchanged or droppingIn the morning traffic the average speed of traffic is only around 27km/h! Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
  4. 4. People are seriously looking formore efficient ways of transportation Average annual change in TYPE of vehicle registered, census between 2004-2009. Source: Motor Vehicle Census, Australia.Motorcycles are on the increase, a more dangerous way of travel and inconvenient in bad weather
  5. 5. Market size estimation - car pooling service in Sydney?Population of Sydney *: 4,554,900Working age population, Sydney*: 3,142,881 (age 15-64, 69%)Average # of trips per weekday : 0.5-1.7 (i.e. commute to work/uni/school, range based on guess. Private vehicle or public transport)Average # weekday trips made: 1.6m-5.3m (working age population x range of average trips per day)Annually total # of weekday trips: 400m-1,390mAssumption, one out of hundred, 1%, of these trips could be car pool trips, i.e. replace a public transport or own car trip.=> Annual car pool trips potential: 40-139 million*Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, June 2010
  6. 6. How much does the daily tripscost?Estimated average cost of a Sydney weekday trip with:•  private car (fuel, car toll, parking excl insurance, repairs and purchase): $5•  public transport trip (train, bus / half price for students): $3•  Motorcycle (fuel, car toll but excl insurance, repairs and purchase): $2•  Walking or bicycle (Not an option for most people in the working group): $0Based on the above we would assume the value to an individual of a shared car trip arrangement is: $2-3Cost charged for a car pool match (direct or indirect, advertising): 10cWhich is significantly lower than the value to the individual
  7. 7. Market value - in totalAs per previous reasoning:1.  40-139 million potential car pool trips per year2.  Modest fee of 10c per matched car pool trip=> Annual market size of $4-14 million