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India and China


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'You ain gonna like me , you jus mad, cause i tell it how it is, and you tell it how it might be'!

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India and China

  1. 1. Crouching Tiger& Flying Dragon
  2. 2. India China (Federal Republic) (Communist state)India is to Services China is to Manufacturing
  3. 3. Year: INDIA CHINA2010GDP $ 1.704 Trillion $ 5.878 TrillionGNI (per capita): $ 1340 $ 4260 (Rs.71,626.8)GDP(official $ 1.430 Trillion $ 5.878 Trillionexchange rate):GDP (PPP): $ 4.06 Trillion $ 10.09 Trillion Source: CIA-The world fact book
  4. 4. Indian GDP in 2050, measured by purchasingpower parity (PPP), will be $85.97 trillion.China, in second place, will have a GDP of $80.02 trillion and the US $ 39.07 trillion.The Indian economy will have to grow at anaverage annual rate of 8.1% a year for thenext 39 years. Source: US banking Cite Group
  5. 5. In 1985, 93 % of the population hadan annual household income of lessthan 90,000 Indian rupees.By 2005, this had dropped by abouttwo-fifths to 54 % of the population.By 2025, we see the deprived segmentshrinking even further to only 22 %of the total population.
  6. 6. GDP (real growth rate)India 9%China 11% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% China 45.8% of GDP and India 29.5% of GDP (then 13.3%)
  7. 7. INDIA CHINARevenues $ 183.6 Billion $ 1.227 TrillionExpéditeurs $ 209 Billion $ 1.323 TrillionPublic Debt 50.6% of GDP 16.3% of GDPBudget Surplus -5.6 % of GDP - 1.6% of GDP
  8. 8. 16.00%14.00%12.00%10.00% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 15.70% 9.70% 0.00% China India
  9. 9. INDIA CHINAIncome level Lower Middle Income Upper Middle IncomeAve age of schooling 5.1 6.4 (25% more)of adultsUnemployment 10 % 6.1% Inflation Rate 15.00% 9.75% 10.00% 5.80% China 5.00% India 0.00% 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
  10. 10. INDIA CHINAReserve of Foreign $287.1 billion $2.876 trillionexchange and GoldDebt External $316.9 billion $529.2 billion FDI Investment $578.80 $600.00Billion $400.00 $297.60 Abroad $188.60 $200.00 $91.86 Home $0.00 India China
  11. 11. INDIA CHINAExports $ 225.6 billion $1.327 trillionImports $ 287.5 billion $ 357.7 billionOil consumption $ 3.182 million $ 9.189 million bbl/day bbl/dayCurrent Account - $ 51.78 billion $ 305.4 billionBalance (deficit) (surplus)
  12. 12. Indian Accounts at the SwissBank alone are 10 times morethan all the countries puttogether. With all the blackmoney from the Swiss Bank, wewill have enough annual budgetfor the next 12 years minus thegrowth.
  13. 13. Age Structure INDIA CHINAPopulation 1.216 billion 1.341 billion0-14 years: 29.7% 17.6%15-64 years: 64.9% 73.6%65 years and over: 5.5% 8.9%Human Development 0.547 0.687Index:
  14. 14. The demographic dividend willensure that India has the largestnumber of working-age people inthe world (over 800 million)between 2015 and 2035. Source: US banking Cite Group
  15. 15. Indias working-age population will increaseby 240 million over the next two decades.About 25 % of the worlds new workers willbe Indian in the next three years. Over half ofIndias population is below 25 years. By 2020,the average age of an Indian is expected to be29 years. Source: Deutsche Bank
  16. 16. Labour force by occupation GDP(composition by sector) 10.20%38.10% 34.10% 43% 46.90% 27.80% Sevices Industries Agriculture
  17. 17. Labour force by occupation GDP (composition by sector) 19% 34% 52% 54.70% 26.30% 14% Agriculture Industries Services
  18. 18. Indias services-driven economyhas not been as capital-hungry asChinas manufacturing-basedone, and household savings havebeen sufficient for the requiredinvestments so far, rectifying thisimbalance offers the key toaccelerating Indias growth rate inthe future.
  19. 19. Indian Economy is domestically driven.India could emerge as the worlds thirdlargest economy by 2030, benefiting fromstrong domestic demand and favorabledemographics standard. Chartered Global Research study.
  20. 20. 1. The entire world network will not work, due to collapse in data transfer.2. No updates will be available for any of the known softwares, because most of the apps are developed by Indians.3. Microsoft, Google, pay-pal, oracle and other software giants will be forced to relocate to India.
  21. 21. INDIA CHINAImproved Water source: Improved Water source: urban: 96% of population  urban: 98% of population rural: 84% of population  rural: 82% of population Total: 88% of population  Total: 89% of populationSanitation Facility Improved: Sanitation Facility Improved: urban: 54% of population  urban: 58% of population rural: 21% of population  rural: 52% of population Total: 31% of population  Total: 55% of population INDIA CHINAMaternal Morality rates 230 deaths/100,000 live 38 deaths/100,000 live births birthsLife Expectancy at birth 66.8 years 74.68 years
  22. 22. Increasing peoples incomes, reducingpoverty and improving the livingstandards and quality of life.Expanding access to basic publicservices, increasing the educationallevel of the population.
  23. 23. India shouldn’t try to grow as rapidly as China “Growth has to be aimed within a relevant country context. India has its own unique past, a very different present, and will chart her own version of the future. In that future, the most critical component is to keep democracy safe.”
  24. 24. India is no. 1 talent supplier in the world.Indias advantage in having a large pool ofEnglish speaking people.India has the advantage of having avibrant, energetic and creative NGO sector.
  25. 25.  The Chinese Great Leap Forward, began in 1949.(62 years for China to develop) It took India 20 Years to develop after the free- trade bills were passed by Rajiv Gandhi in 1991. India’s literacy rate in 1991 was 52.21% and now it is 75.04%.(youth literacy is 84%) Indian Middle class is the soon going to be largest in the world.
  26. 26. Yoga, Spirituality. Ancient Medicines-Ayurved India’s Soft Powers Multitude ofAncient Science and Astronomy religions, communities, rhythms, cultures & festivals.
  27. 27. India’s ProblemInfrastructure sector.Insufficient investments.Losing the best and the brightest abroad.Constraints in labor market needed formanufacturing Industry.
  28. 28. CHINA INDIA(Death sentence)
  29. 29. But if a growing GDP is not to become acruel irony for Indias 445 million still-desperately poor people, thegovernment must begin the secondstage of economic liberalization withoutlosing any further time.
  30. 30. China’s ProblemMiddle Income Trap (transition from middle income tohigh income status).Ageing population - "one child" policy.High domestic savings rate and correspondingly lowdomestic demand.As Chinas per capita income rises, its 1.34 billion peoplewill increasingly yearn for real freedom: a free press, anopen Internet and, most crucially, democracy.
  31. 31. The Dark Side of Development-ChinaReverse engineering and stolen blueprints25 Million People involved illicit manufacture.Network of highly sophisticated undergroundsupply chain with other countries.Fake Pharmaceuticals business.
  32. 32. Shadow EconomyDelisting of Dubious Chinese companies from NYSE andNASDAQ.Global hub for duplicate designer brands and labels.Weapons Supplier of the world.High level of Human trafficking because of high supply ofprostitutes from China all over the world.
  33. 33. You want a fastestgrowing economy inthe world where youare work with “gunon your head” or asecond fastestgrowing economy inthe world with“democratic system”.
  34. 34. Hard Core Facts:China and US economy are interconnectedeconomically as China has invested a lot of moneyinto the US.China and India are in a race to invest in Africa,Middle East, etc.India’s tardiness at the bureaucratic levels,contrasts with the "single mindedness" on theChinese side.
  35. 35. Need to build a Quality Brand Name for India :Strong Government with a clear perspective.A consistent and thoughtful marketing effort.FDI attractiveness.Creation of zones and infrastructure for business.More of Privatization.
  36. 36. The total amounts of fossil fuel, farmlandand fresh water and many other criticalresources are fixed and will seriously impactChina and Indias potential for economicgrowth. So growth wont be judged by the“growth of GDP" but on the basis ofsustainability and energy efficiencydevelopment in Future .
  37. 37. IIPM Bangalore