Dr. Stephen Fuller - 13th Annual Economic Summit

Dr. Stephen Fuller - 13th Annual Economic Summit
NVAR Economic Summit The Shape of the Housing Recovery Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis School of Public Policy, George Mason University September 23, 2009
U.S. Gross Domestic Product Quarterly Change: 2006 – 2011 Forecast > > > > > > > > > % 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Global Insight
The Washington Economy
US GDP and Washington GRP % Washington GRP US GDP
Annual Job Change Washington MSA 000s 80 Annual Data Annual Month over Year 60 2008 2009 40 20 0 -20 40 -40 -60 20 20 20 20 20 20 Fe Fe Ja Mar M Ap May M Ju Ju Au Se Oct Nov Dec Ja Mar M Ap May M Ju Ju Au an un ul an un ul 002 003 004 005 006 007 eb eb pr ug ep pr ug Source: BLS March 2009 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
15 Largest Job Markets (000s) Job Change Aug 08 – Aug 09 100 Washington 42,100 W hi t – 42 100 50 0 -50 -100 -150 -200 -250 -300 Source: BLS March 2009 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Job Change by Sector Aug 2008 – Aug 2009 Washington MSA g Total - 42 100 42,100 (000s) (000 ) Prof. & Bus. Svcs 1 Federal Govt. 12 Educ & Health Svcs 4 State & Local Govt -3 Retail Trade -13 Leisure & Hosp. -4 Construction -17 Other Services -3 3 Financial -7 Information -6 Manufacturing M f t i -3 Wlse Trade -3 Transp. & Util. -1 -20 -10 0 10 20 Source: BLS March 2009 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Unemployment Rate % 9.7 U.S. 6.2 Washington Source: BLS, Not Seasonally Adjusted
15 Largest Job Markets Ranked by Unemployment Rate % July 2009 US 9.7 97 6.2 Source: BLS, NOT Seasonally Adjusted
Housing Market Trends
New Home Sales January – June Each Year 14000 12000 Washington Metro 10000 8000 Northern Virginia 6000 4000 2000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: Hanley Wood, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Housing Sales, Actual and Forecast to Sept. 2010 Northern Virginia g 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis
New Housing Contract Kick-Out Rate g Washington Metro, All Housing Types % 2006 2007 2008 2009 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Oct Oct Oct 003 005 Apr Dec Apr Dec Apr Dec Apr Feb Jun Aug Feb Jun Aug Feb Jun Aug Feb Jun O O O A A A A D D D 20 20 A A A F F F F J J J J Source: Hanley Wood, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Percent Change in Inventories of Existing Homes Month-Over-the-Year-Change % 2000 – 2009, MSA , Jan-May, 2006 >100 % Aug = - 21.7% Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Units Sold Percent Change By Subregion % All Housing Types 2007 2008 2009 SMD DC MSA NVA Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Total Active Listings Per Sale August Each Year PW LDN FFX MONT DC ARL Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Total Active Listings Per Sale August Each Year – Metro Area Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Housing Sales – NVAR g (3-month moving average) 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 TOT 1500 1000 500 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Housing Sales – NVAR g (3-month moving average) 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 TOT 1500 1000 <400 500 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Housing Sales – NVAR g (3-month moving average) 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 TOT 1500 1000 400-750 <400 500 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Housing Sales – NVAR g (3-month moving average) 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 TOT 1500 1000 400-750 <400 500 >750 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Housing Sales – NVAR % of Total Sales <$400,000 $ 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Washington MSA Average Sales Price All Housing Types $600,000 $600 000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 $0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Average Sales Price Percent Change Washington MSA All Housing Types % Annual Change Annual Change by Month 2007 2008 2009 Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Average Sales Price Percent Change Suburban Maryland All Housing Types % Annual Change Annual Change by Month 2007 2008 2009 Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Average Sales Price Percent Change Northern Virginia All Housing Types % Annual Change Annual Change by Month 2007 2008 2009 Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Economic Forecast
Economic Outlook (GRP) Washington Area and Sub-state Portions g (Annual % Change) % NV MSA SM DC Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Employment Change by S b t t Region (000s) Sub-state R i (000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 D.C. DC 5.3 53 4.2 42 3.0 30 4.8 48 6.8 68 6.4 64 7.0 70 7.5 75 Sub Sub. MD 4.8 3.4 -8.5 8.5 7.2 8.7 10.6 13.0 15.1 No. VA 13.2 9.0 -15.5 12.9 19.4 25.4 27.6 30.7 REGION 23.3 16.6 -21.0 23.9 34.9 42.4 47.6 53.3 Average A A Annual Ch l Change 1990 2008 = 45 000 1990-2008 45,000 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
GDP/GRP % 2000 - 2014 8 6 Washington 4 2 U.S. 0 -2 -4 4 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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